The most eagerly anticipated fortnight of the year in tennis is upon us, and now that the draw has been made it is time to analyze what might be ahead of us and who should prevail in the end on the lawns of Wimbledon. In my view, the draw is almost equitable for all of the top players and the world’s most prestigious tennis tournament ought to be a smorgasbord for all of the fans who have a reverence for tradition and an appreciation for a grass court festival that is not only beautifully run but also followed more closely by general sports fans than any other tennis event. And that is the way it should be.
Let’s look closely at the men’s draw. The clear tournament favorite Novak Djokovic will open his quest for a third consecutive title and a sixth overall against British wild card Jack Draper. Perhaps the 34-year-old would prefer to see a more familiar face across the net but surely it will not take him long to find his range and to start picking Draper apart from the back of the court. The view here is that he might have one tough set as he finds his bearings but I expect Djokovic to be the victor in straight sets.
Djokovic is likely to meet Kevin Anderson in the second round. Three years ago, the lanky South African overcame John Isner in a marathon Wimbledon semifinal which lasted six hours and 36 minutes. Djokovic also contested a hard fought semifinal that year as well, eclipsing Rafael Nadal 10-8 in the fifth set. They waged war from the backcourt for five hours and fifteen minutes but that was over the course of two days. Djokovic then cut down Anderson on Centre Court in straight sets to seal the crown.
Three years earlier on Court One, Djokovic had another memorable meeting with Anderson in which he trailed two sets to love. But he rallied to take that round of 16 battle in five tense sets on his way to a third title run at the All England Club. If they meet in the second round this year, the circumstances will be different. Anderson is not the same player he was in either 2015 or 2018. At 35, he is struggling to regain his confidence after injuries and disappointing results across the past couple of years. Anderson remains formidable, though, and he may get inspired if his serve is on against Djokovic. I will give him one set against the world No. 1 but no more than that.
In the third round, Djokovic could meet Alejandro Davidovich and his round of 16 opponent is likely to be either No. 17 seed Cristian Garin or the enigmatic No. 13 seed Gael Monfils, but ether way Djokovic should not have many difficulties making his way to a potential quarterfinal with No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev. Rublev will have his work cut out for him to make it that far. No 9 seed Diego Schwartzman and No. 19 Jannik Sinner could do battle in the third round with the winner facing Rublev in the round of 16, but I believe Rublev on form should make it through to an appointment with Djokovic.
Rublev is a big hitter and a total professional. He cares deeply about his craft and has an unwavering desire to win every match he plays. But he has never played Djokovic before. The Serbian will not allow this encounter to turn into a slugfest. He will rely heavily on his defense and ball control and throw in a lot of backhand slices to break the rhythm of Rublev. I am picking Djokovic to oust Rublev in four well-played sets.
Now that we have Djokovic into the semifinals, who will join him there? The seedings tell us that No. 3 seed Stefanos Tsitsipas will be the man standing across the net from Djokovic in the penultimate round. The Greek stylist has a tricky opening round assignment against the gifted yet underachieving American Frances Tiafoe. Tiafoe has sometimes performed commendably against top players at majors. This year in Melbourne, he pushed Djokovic to four hard sets at the Australian Open in the second round and in 2017 he took Roger Federer to five sets in a first round showdown at the U.S. Open.
Tiafoe will surely be inspired against Tsitsipas, who has yet to play his best tennis on grass. Here is a fellow who just reached his first major final at Roland Garros, where he took the first two sets against Djokovic before bowing in the title round. Tsitsipas was a semifinalist at Roland Garros last year, losing another five setter to Djokovic. He has twice been a semifinalist at the Australian Open, including an appearance in that round this year.
Will he demonstrate that he can adjust to the grass this year and improve his backhand return? I believe the answer is yes. Tsitsipas should account for Tiafoe in four sets and then he should play his way through safely over the next few rounds. In the fourth round he could find himself facing either Dan Evans, No. 15 seed Alex de Minaur or even the surging young American Sebastian Korda. Korda takes on De Minaur in he first round. That will be a blockbuster and I envision a five set verdict either way. The winner would probably play Evans in the third round, although the British player has an arduous first round appointment against 39-year-old Feliciano Lopez.
Lopez is appearing at Wimbledon for the 19th time in his distinguished career. He made his debut in 2002 and has been to the quarterfinals three times across the years. With his aggressive game and first rate volleying skills, Lopez is always dangerous on the lawns. The No. 22 seed Evans will have to return well in this intriguing contest.
My guess is that Evans will pull out a five set victory but then lose to Korda in the third round. Tsitsipas will have his hands full with Korda in he round of 16 but will win in four sets. I am picking No. 10 seed Denis Shapovalov to reach the quarterfinals against Tsitsipas, and that one could be a dandy. But I believe Tsitsipas will topple Shapovalov in five sets to set up a semifinal appointment against Djokovic.
Now let’s proceed to the bottom half of the draw. If all goes according to plan and the seedings hold up, No 7 seed Matteo Berrettini will play No. 4 seed Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals, and No. 2 seed Daniil Medvedev is due to confront No. 6 seed and eight-time Wimbledon champion Roger Federer. Is that going to happen?
Berrettini opens against the guileful Guido Pella, the 31-year-old, left-handed Argentine who is a very capable grass court player. That will be no easy contest but Berrettini is feeling good about himself after winning the title at the Queen’s Club in London. He will succeed in four sets. But a more dangerous confrontation for the Italian player could be a third round duel with No. 28 seed John Isner.
This would be a top of the line server’s duel. Berrettini now has established himself as one of the premier servers in the game of tennis, right up there among the top five. Isner, of course, has one of the greatest weapons in the game with his serve. Both Berrettini and Isner struggle with the return of serve. So there will not be many service breaks in this compelling contest. I believe Berrettini, however, is in better form at the moment. The match will feature four tiebreakers, and the Italian will win three of them.
In the round of 16, it looks like Berrettini will meet Casper Ruud, and he will stop the No. 12 seed from Norway in four sets, moving on to the quarterfinals. Zverev in my view should move smoothly into the round of 16, but in that round will be severely challenged by none other than No. 21 seed Ugo Humbert. The Frenchman was victorious in Halle, ousting Rublev in the final. Earlier in the tournament he defeated Zverev. Humbert has the unenviable task of playing Nick Kyrgios in the first round of Wimbledon, but I believe he will get through that battle in four sets.
Can Humbert replicate his Halle performance across the best of five sets in a much bigger setting against Zverev? I doubt it. Zverev has become comfortable at all of the majors over the last year. He should have won the U.S. Open last year but squandered a two-sets-to-love lead against Dominic Thiem in the final. Moreover, he served for the match in the fifth set before losing that agonizing skirmish with the rugged Austrian.
Zverev could well have been in the final of Roland Garros a few weeks ago but he fell in five sets against Tsitsipas after taking the third and fourth and reaching 0-40 on the Tsitsipas serve at the start of the final set in that semifinal. So I am going with him to beat the impressive Humbert in five sets at the All England Club.
And so Zverev and Berrettini will meet after all in the quarters. The German beat the Italian in the final of the Masters 1000 tournament at Madrid last month. He has a 3-1 career head to head lead over Berrettini. To be sure, Berrettini has improved markedly over the past few years, and he is playing the finest tennis of his career at the moment. Nevertheless, I see Zverev securing a four set triumph over Berrettini to reach the semifinals.
Medvedev opens up against the industrious Jan-Lennard Struff of Germany. Struff is currently ranked No. 45 in the world but he is a much better player than that and a big server with a game well suited to the grass. Struff just upended Medvedev on grass in Halle. He will make life difficult for the Russian again at Wimbledon, but Medvedev will come from behind to win in four sets.
The Russian could have another tough match inn the second round against either Spanish wild card Carlos Alcaraz or Tommy Paul of the United States. In the third round, Medvedev could well meet 2017 Wimbledon finalist Marin Cilic (the No. 32 seed) and one round later he will be up against No. 14 seed Hubert Hurkacz or perhaps the Italian wizard Lorenzo Musetti. Musetti versus Hurkacz will be an intruding first round battle. None of these matches will be facile for Medvedev, yet somehow he will plod on to the quarters.
But will he face Federer? The Swiss Maestro is not heading into Wimbledon with the kind of preparation he wanted. Gone from the game for over a year while enduring two surgeries on his knee, Federer has played only four tournaments and eight matches this season. He surely wanted to go deep into the draw in Halle but he contested only two matches there, falling tamely in the final set against the gifted Félix Auger-Aliassime.
Clearly Federer will be buoyed by the British crowds who have always cheered his every move. This will be his 22nd Wimbledon and it could well be his last. Federer will surely want to make the most of it and undoubtedly he remains the most natural grass court player in the field.
He will commence his campaign for the “Crown Jewel” of tennis against the Frenchman Adrian Mannarino. This should be an ideal beginning for the Swiss, who owns a 6-0 career head-to-head record over his left-handed rival. Twice Federer has stopped Mannarino at Wimbledon, including their most recent encounter in the round of 16 three years ago.
Federer will not waltz through this match but he will win in four sets, and then he could meet another Frenchman in the second round. That would be Richard Gasquet. In the third round, Federer is likely to play No. 29 seed Cameron Norrie. He will be tested by British player. But Federer will get it done in four sets.
Predicting Federer’s fourth round opponent is no simple task. It might well be the Italian Lorenzo Sonego who is seeded No. 23. That is my guess. And Sonego will throw everything he has at Federer after having a great week in Eastbourne. The problem is that he is overmatched on grass. Federer is a four set victor in this one.
Although I have my share of doubts about both Medvedev and Federer as they head into this edition of Wimbledon, I still believe they will uphold their seedings and clash in the quarterfinals. Although Federer has won all three of their career meetings, the last time he took on Medvedev was in Miami back in the spring of 2019. Medvedev is a different player now.
This quarterfinal could be tumultuous as Federer looks to assert himself with his attacking game. It will come down largely to the quality of his first serve and the capacity of Medvedev to counter with solid and deep returns from his customary position far behind the baseline. It will be a pendulum swinging affair but in my view the better grass court player will not be victorious. His lack of match play will catch up with him as Medvedev rallies from two sets to one down and wins in five.
Both semifinals are set: Djokovic and Tsitsipas will renew their rivalry. The Serbian has won six of his eight meetings with the Greek player, including that memorable Roland Garros five set duel. I believe Djokovic will be more at home on the grass than Tsitsipas. His second serve returns will be very burdensome for Tsitsipas and the Serbian will outmaneuver his adversary from the baseline.
I am picking Djokovic over Tsitsipas in four sets after they split the first two. Zverev and Medvedev will come at each other full force. Medvedev will have the upper hand in the longer rallies while Zverev has the edge when he opens up the court and blasts winners. It will be very close. Medvedev has prevailed in his last three confrontations with Zverev and hopes to even their career series at 5-5. But Zverev is the victor here in five enticing sets.
And so it will all come down to Djokovic versus Zverev for the Wimbledon title. Djokovic has won six of their eight career meetings, including a come form behind four set win in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open this year. This will be another dandy of a duel. Zverev will feel immense pressure to get at least 65% of his first serves in because Djokovic will be all over his second delivery. Zverev will take chances from the baseline to avoid getting worn down by the precision and immaculate ball control of the Serbian.
They will split the first two sets but Djokovic comes through in the clutch to win a tight third set tie-break, and then slowly pulls away in the fourth. Novak Djokovic wins Wimbledon with a 7-5, 4-6, 7-6 (6), 6-3 triumph over Zverev, claiming a 20th Grand Slam title, tying Federer and Rafael Nadal for the record in the process. He claims his third major in a row with the victory in Great Britain. And he puts himself one title away from becoming the first man since Rod Laver in 1969 to win the Grand Slam.
That is how I see it, but this much is certain: even casual sports observers will be watching this Wimbledon with heightened interest as Djokovic pursues history of the highest order and fans from every corner of the globe celebrate the return of the sport’s centerpiece event after it was canceled a year ago due to Covid considerations. The tennis world will rejoice as Wimbledon makes a spectacular comeback.
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Steve Flink has been reporting full time on tennis since 1974, when he went to work for World Tennis Magazine. He stayed at that publication until 1991. He wrote for Tennis Week Magazine from 1992-2007, and has been a columnist for tennis.com and tennischannel.com for the past 14 years. Flink has written four books on tennis including “Dennis Ralston’s Tennis Workbook” in 1987; “The Greatest Tennis Matches of the Twentieth Century” in 1999; “The Greatest Tennis Matches of All Time” in 2012; and “Pete Sampras: Greatness Revisited”. The Sampras book was released in September of 2020 and can be purchased on Amazon.com. Flink was inducted into the International Tennis Hall of Fame in 2017.
