Simona Halep has reached the Madrid final in three of her last four appearances, but could be tested by another of the WTA’s most consistent performers, Elise Mertens. Tuesday’s other three women’s third round matches should also be engrossing, as they feature many of the sport’s most impressive rising stars. On the men’s side, both first round and second round matches will be played. Notably, two-time Roland Garros finalist Dominic Thiem will make his 2021 clay court debut. But the day’s most intriguing ATP matchup sees two of the top Italians in the world square off for only the second time.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the two most prominent matches of the day, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Tuesday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Simona Halep (3) vs. Elise Mertens (13) – Not Before 1:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
Halep leads their head-to-head 4-1, and 3-0 on clay. She has never dropped a set to Mertens on this surface. Mertens’ only victory came on a hard court two years ago in the final of Doha. Their most recent meeting came last August on clay, with Halep taking out Mertens in the final of Prague.
That was one of three titles last year for Halep, and part of a stretch where she won 17 consecutive matches. While she is 11-3 this season, Simona is yet to reach a final in 2021. Her best result thus far occurred two weeks ago in Stuttgart, where she was soundly defeated in the semifinals by Aryna Sabalenka.
No one won more matches last season than Mertens, who accumulated 34 wins. However, that included no titles, and only two finals. Elise did pick up a winner’s trophy earlier this year, in a WTA 500 event in Australia, which was her first title in two years. But most concerning in this matchup with Halep is not only their history, but also her record against top players. Since the start of 2020, Mertens is just 3-9 against top 20 opposition. Elise doesn’t have the firepower of players like Sabalenka or Serena Williams, which Halep often struggles against. This matchup favors Simona, who should advance to the quarterfinals of this event for the fifth straight time.
Matteo Berrettini (8) vs. Fabio Fognini – Fourth on Arantxa Sanchez Stadium
Their only previous meeting took place four years ago in Rome, when Berrettini was a wild card and ranked 249th in the world. Fognini prevailed easily that day, but Matteo is now a much different player. His breakout year was 2019, when he won 48 matches, reached the US Open semifinals, and debuted inside the top 10. He’s now the No.1 Italian in the world, and is coming off a title run two weeks ago in Belgrade.
Fognini now finds himself as the third-ranked Italian, as the younger generation of Berrettini and Jannik Sinner have surpassed him in the rankings. The 33-year-old has struggled since the start of 2020, with a record of 16-19. And the same week Berrettini was winning the event in Belgrade, Fognini got defaulted in Barcelona for verbally abusing a line judge, which was not exactly shocking given Fabio’s history of misbehavior.
However, Fognini remains a highly-accomplished and dangerous player, capable of defeating almost anyone when he’s on. That’s especially true on this surface. Eight of his nine career titles have come on clay, most notably the Masters event in Monte-Carlo two years ago. Fabio should be motivated to upstage the new Italian No.1 on his best surface, while I’m curious to see how Matteo handles the pressure of facing his country’s best male player of the past decade.
Other Notable Matches on Tuesday:
Aryna Sabalenka (5) vs. Jessica Pegula – Sabalenka has now won 29 of her last 35 matches. Pegula is 18-6 this season, and received a walkover in the last round from Victoria Azarenka. They split their two encounters last year, though Sabalenka comfortably prevailed on clay at Roland Garros.
Jennifer Brady (11) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – Brady defeated two Majors champions in her first two rounds: Venus Williams and Jelena Ostapenko. Pavlyuchenkova defeated two Major finalists: Madison Keys and Karolina Pliskova. This is their first career meeting.
Maria Sakkari (16) vs. Karolina Muchova – These are the only two players to notch victories over Naomi Osaka in the past year. And both have similar records this season: Sakkari is 15-7, while Muchova is 14-6. This will be another first-time matchup.
Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Marcos Giron (Q) – Thiem has not played in over six weeks, as he took a break from the tour and rehabbed an injured knee. Giron played for well over three hours just yesterday, and has spent more than eight-and-a-half hours on court through three matches over the last three days.
Andrey Rublev (6) vs. Tommy Paul – Rublev is still looking for his first 1000-level title, but reached the semifinals or better at the last two Masters events. Paul has never advanced beyond the second round at a Masters. Rublev is 2-0 against the 23-year-old American.
Karen Khachanov vs. Kei Nishikori – Nishikori was a finalist at this event in 2014, but is just 10-12 since returning to action last September. Khachanov has also struggled of late, losing six of his last 10 matches. They’ve split their four previous clashes.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
