Ash Barty and Aryna Sabalenka are one round away from meeting in their second consecutive final, after Barty defeated Sabalenka in the championship match of Stuttgart. On Thursday, both face unseeded yet considerable opposition. And all 16 remaining men will play their third round matches, featuring seven of the ATP’s top 10.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the two most prominent matches of the day, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Thursday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Paula Badosa (WC) – Not Before 1:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
What a tournament it’s been for the 23-year-old wild card, who is the first Spanish woman to ever reach the semifinals of her country’s biggest tournament. But this result is not a fluke: she’s now 14-6 this season, and 3-0 against top 20 players. That includes a victory over her opponent today, who she defeated in straight sets last month on the green clay of Charleston.
In that match against Barty, Badosa saved 12 of 14 break points faced. After the match, Badosa credited her aggressive game plan of attacking early in rallies as her key to success. However, replicating that feat in front of a home crowd, and against an in-form world No.1, will be a tall task. Barty is now 24-3 this season, and has claimed 16 of her last 18 deciding sets. Ash possesses a high tennis IQ, and I expect her and her team to learn from the loss in Charleston, and figure out a way to overcome the impressive Spaniard.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) vs. Casper Ruud – Not Before 4:00pm on Arantxa Sanchez Stadium
Tsitsipas is now 10-1 on clay this season, with his only loss coming at the hands of Rafael Nadal, in a championship match where he held a match point. Meanwhile, Ruud has compiled an impressive 25-9 record on this surface since the start of last year. And the 22-year-old is 4-1 this season on clay against top 20 opponents, with his only loss coming at the hands of Andrey Rublev in Monte-Carlo.
This will be their first tour-level meeting, though they did play in 2016 at an ITF event on clay, which went to Tsitsipas in a third-set tiebreak. Ruud is fully capable of making this another tight contest, but Stefanos has been the second best clay court player so far this season, which makes him the favorite to advance.
Other Notable Matches on Thursday:
Aryna Sabalenka (5) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – Sabalenka has been on a tear, winning 30 of her last 36 matches. And she’s yet to drop a set at this event. Pavlyuchenkova has defeated four top 25 players this fortnight to reach her first WTA 1000 semifinal in over a decade. Their only previous meeting was two years ago in Canada, with Pavlyuchenkova prevailing 7-5 in the third.
Rafael Nadal (1) vs. Alexei Popyrin – Nadal has 392 career match wins at the Masters 1000 level. 21-year-old Popyrin only has six, though the Australian earned an impressive win on Wednesday over Jannik Sinner.
Daniil Medvedev (2) vs. Cristian Garin (16) – Medvedev just earned his first win on clay since April of 2019. By contrast, Garin has earned five clay court titles since April of 2019. Two years ago at the Rogers Cup, Medvedev defeated Garin in straight sets.
Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Alex de Minaur – Thiem has reached the semifinals or better of this event in his last three appearances. De Minaur often trains in Spain, but had never won a match on clay at the Masters level before this week. Thiem leads their head-to-head 3-0.
Sascha Zverev (5) vs. Dan Evans – Zverev was the champion of this event three years ago, and comfortably dispatched of Kei Nishikori on Wednesday. Prior to Monte-Carlo last month, Evans had lost 10 consecutive matches on clay, but has now won six of his last eight. In their only prior encounter, Evans was victorious in four sets at the 2016 US Open.
Andrey Rublev (6) vs. John Isner – Since the beginning of 2020, Rublev is 66-16. Isner is just 16-3 during that same span, though he saved a match point to prevail over Roberto Bautista Agut on Wednesday. The American defeated Rublev at the 2015 Miami Open, when Rublev was only 17-years-old.
Matteo Berrettini (8) vs. Federico Delbonis – Berrettini won the clay event in Belgrade two weeks ago. Delbonis’ two career titles have both come on this surface.
Aslan Karatsev vs. Alexander Bublik – Karatsev is now 19-5 in 2021, and on Wednesday came back from a set and a break down against Diego Schwartzman. Bublik is 18-11 this season, and upset Denis Shapovalov in the last round.
Thursday’s full Order of Play is here.
