Karolina Muchova was a surprise semifinalist in Melbourne, her first time advancing that far at a Major. Today she faces the four-time Slam champ, who is playing her first event on clay in nearly two years. Other second round action includes two rematches from this year’s Aussie Open, featuring the top two Belarusians: Aryna Sabalenka against Daria Kasatkina, and Victoria Azarenka against Jessica Pegula.
Also on Sunday, the ATP main draws begin, with eight first round singles matches. And a doubles match featuring four top 30 singles players should be most entertaining
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the two most prominent matches of the day, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Sunday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Naomi Osaka (2) vs. Karolina Muchova – 11:00am on Manolo Santana Stadium
Muchova didn’t compete for two months after her Australian Open semifinal due to an abdominal injury, but prevailed comfortably over Qiang Wang on Friday. Osaka also won in straight sets on Friday, in only her second match on clay since May of 2019. And while she is yet to win a title on this surface, Naomi went 9-2 on clay two seasons ago. Muchova has only played 10 tour-level matches in her career on the red dirt, which makes her run to the final of Prague two years ago all the more impressive.
Their only previous meeting was a good one. Last summer at the Western & Southern Open, Osaka required three sets, and over two-and-a-half-hours, to overcome the 24-year-old from the Czech Republic. That was Osaka’s first match following the pandemic tour shutdown. She recovered well after dropping the first set in a tiebreak, and won an outstanding 81% of first serve points. It will be challenging to replicate that on clay, though it will be important for Naomi to win some easy points on serve considering the aggressive, yet versatile style of Muchova. This could be another tight encounter, but with Muchova just recently returning from injury, Osaka is the favorite. Plus, Naomi has won 24 of her last 25 completed matches.
Victoria Azarenka (12) vs. Jessica Pegula – Fifth on Manolo Santana Stadium
At the Australian Open in February, the 27-year-old American upset the two-time champion of that event in the first round 7-5, 6-4. Azarenka struggled with her serve in that match, striking seven double faults, which helped Pegula create seven break point chances. Jessica would go on to reach her first Major quarterfinal, taking out Elina Svitolina in the quarterfinals. Pegula has played her best tennis since hiring David Witt as her coach two years ago, with a record of 35-15 since the start of last year.
In 2020, Azarenka achieved her best results in several years, winning the Western & Southern Open and reaching the US Open final. And while her most notable success has not come on clay, she is a former Roland Garros semifinalist, and a two-time runner-up of this event, though those results were nearly a decade ago. However, Pegula is an unproven commodity on clay, with only six career main draw wins at tour level. Azarenka earned a solid victory over Ekaterina Alexandrova on Friday, and I like her chances to avenge her Australian Open loss against Pegula on Sunday.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Aryna Sabalenka (5) vs. Daria Kasatkina – Sabalenka has won 28 of her last 34 matches. Kasatkina has rebounded nicely after a tough few seasons, with a 17-5 record and two titles in 2021. Sabalenka defeated Kasatkina in straight sets at the two most recent Majors.
Simona Halep (3) vs. Saisai Zheng – Halep has claimed 21 of her last 23 matches in Madrid, dating back to 2016. Zheng won a clay court title two years ago in her home country of China. Halep has taken both of their previous meetings in straights.
Karolina Pliskova (6) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – Pliskova leads their head-to-head 6-1, though their most recent encounter went to Pavlyuchenkova, at last year’s Australian Open. They’ve never met on clay, and neither player has excelled at this event.
Jennifer Brady (11) vs. Jelena Ostapenko – Following her first Slam final in Melbourne, Brady was on a three-match losing streak before defeating Venus Williams on Friday. Following her first Major title at the 2017 French Open, Ostapenko has accumulated a losing record on clay. They’ve split two previous meetings, but their clay court encounter went to Ostapenko.
Denis Shapovalov (11) vs. Dusan Lajovic – Shapovalov is a meager 8-8 on the season, though Lajovic has dropped his last four matches, three of which were on clay. This is their first career matchup.
Karen Khachanov and Andrey Rublev vs. Fabio Fognini and Diego Schwartzman – The Russians have much more experience as a team, but the Fognini/Schwartzman partnership won two matches last month in Monte-Carlo.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.