Just 13 days ago in Stuttgart, Barty and Sabalenka competed in the championship match, with Barty coming back from a set down to win the title, claiming 12 of the last 15 games. On Saturday, Sabalenka looks to avenge that loss, and even their head-to-head at 4-4. The women’s doubles championship will also be decided, between two of the top three seeds.
On the men’s side, the singles and doubles semifinals will be played. Sascha Zverev hit a subpar Rafael Nadal right off the court on Friday, and just 24 hours later will try to take out the next-best clay courter of the last few years, Dominic Thiem. Saturday will be a busy day for Zverev, as he’s also a semifinalist in doubles. In the other singles semifinal, Matteo Berrettini and Casper Ruud will do battle, with the winner achieving their first Masters 1000 final.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the two most prominent matches of the day, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Saturday’s play will begin at 1:30pm local time.
Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Sascha Zverev (5) – Not Before 4:00pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
This will be their first encounter since their dramatic, yet rather ugly US Open final, where Thiem came back from two sets down to eventually prevail in a fifth set tiebreak. Overall Dominic leads their head-to-head 8-2, and 4-1 on clay. The Austrian has claimed their last four meetings, with Zverev’s last victory coming in the final of this event three years ago.
Both men struggled with some nagging injuries prior to this event, but both have looked sharp to this stage. Thiem overcame a one-set deficit on Friday against John Isner, while Zverev is yet to drop a set. Defeating Nadal on clay is always a big achievement, especially when it’s your first time doing so. It will be interesting to see if Sascha can maintain his high level from a day prior. Zverev struck 28 winners on Friday, compared to only six by Nadal.
In last year’s US Open final, the winner of each set was the player who won a higher percentage of first serve points. If you’re Sascha Zverev, there has to be some baggage from blowing a two-set lead in his first career Major final. In a rivalry that has strongly favored Thiem, I like the reigning US Open champion to reach his third final in Madrid.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Aryna Sabalenka (5) – Not Before 6:30pm on Manolo Santana Stadium
They’ve already met twice this year, in Miami and Stuttgart, with Barty taking both matches in a third set by a score of 6-3. In their Stuttgart final, converting break points was a key difference. Barty broke five times, while Sabalenka only claimed two out of 10 break points. That exemplifies the composure of the world No.1, who has won 16 out of her last 18 deciding sets.
Sabalenka hasn’t faced a deciding set this fortnight, as she’s been dominating all competition. No opponent has claimed more than three games in a set. Aryna has spent about three less hours on court than Barty, though that shouldn’t be a significant factor on Saturday. Both players had a day of rest on Friday, and comfortably won their Thursday semifinals in straight sets.
Barty has amassed several impressive streaks: 9 straight match wins, 16 straight on red clay, and 10 straight victories over top 10 opposition. She’s also prevailed in 10 of her last 12 finals. Similarly, Sabalenka has won seven of her last nine finals. Yet as impressive as the Belarusian has been, winning 32 of her last 38 matches, she’s only 1-3 during that span against the top 10. If these two go the distance again, it’s harder for Sabalenka to maintain her level than Barty. And Ash possesses many more backup plans in her arsenal. In what should be another tight contest, I give the slight edge to Barty to earn her fourth title of the year.
Other Notable Matches on Saturday:
Matteo Berrettini (8) vs. Casper Ruud – Berrettini is on a seven-match win streak, dating back to his title run two weeks ago in Belgrade. Ruud is into his third consecutive Masters 1000 semifinal on clay, and all 14 of his wins at this level have come on this surface. Casper has been serving spectacularly, as he’s yet to be broken at this event, facing only one break point thus far. They’ve split two previous meetings, with the clay court clash going to Ruud in straight sets, two years ago at Roland Garros.
Barbora Krejcikova and Katerina Siniakova (2) vs. Gabriela Dabrowski and Demi Schuurs (3) – Krejcikova and Siniakova won the Gippsland Trophy earlier this season, and reached the final of the Australian Open. This is the first tournament for Dabrowski and Schuurs as a team.
Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic (2) vs. Sander Gille and Joran Vliegen – Mektic and Pavic have now won 31 of 34 matches since teaming up for 2021. Their Belgian opponents won the Singapore Open earlier this year, then went on a five-match losing streak before reaching the final of Munich last week.
Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (3) vs. Tim Puetz and Sascha Zverev – Granollers and Zeballos are looking to reach their second final of the season. This is Puetz and Zverev’s second event this season as a team. In Miami, the Germans defeated Granollers and Zeballos in straight sets.
Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.
