The world No.1 is a five-time champion in Rome, and has also reached the final on five other occasions. In each of the last 14 years, Djokovic has not failed to reach at least the quarterfinals of this event. On Tuesday, he plays his opening round match against 23-year-old American Taylor Fritz, who pushed an injured Novak to five sets at this year’s Australian Open.
Last week in Madrid, World No.2 Daniil Medvedev just earned his first clay court win since April of 2019, as he continues to figure out how to thrive on clay. In his opening match, Daniil takes on fellow countryman and friend Aslan Karatsev, who upset Djokovic a few weeks ago in Belgrade. Karatsev lost the Belgrade final to Matteo Berrettini, who this past Sunday also played in the final of Madrid. Less than 48 hours later, the Italian No.1 will be back on court in his home country against Nikoloz Basilashvili, a two-time ATP champion this year.
Women’s action on Tuesday features four Major singles champions. Garbine Muguruza, Angelique Kerber, Jelena Ostapenko, and Sloane Stephens will all face considerable competition.
Throughout the tournament, this preview will analyze the day’s two most prominent matches, while highlighting the other notable matches on the schedule. Tuesday’s play begins at 10:00am local time.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Taylor Fritz – Third on Center Court
Djokovic was up two-sets-to-none during their third round match at this year’s Australian Open when he suffered an abdominal injury. Fritz took advantage, winning the next two sets. But with the match on the line in the fifth, Taylor blinked, enabling an emotional Djokovic to fight back and achieve what he called “one of the most special wins in my life.” In the third and fourth sets, Fritz struck a total of 12 aces and won 90% of first serve points. However, that dropped to only three aces in the fifth, with just 56% of first serve points won.
Their other two matches both took place on clay in 2019, and both were easily claimed by Djokovic. Fritz earned a nice win on Monday over Dan Evans, but prior to that was on a three-match losing streak on clay. And Taylor is just 13-14 on this surface since the start of 2019. This season, Djokovic is only 3-2 on clay, so he’ll be eager to accumulate wins this week, in his last event before Roland Garros. If Fritz couldn’t put away a hampered Djokovic on a hard court, which is Taylor’s preferred surface, I don’t like his chances of doing so on clay.
Daniil Medvedev (3) vs. Aslan Karatsev – Not before 7:00pm on Grand Stand Arena
They have never met at tour-level, but they have played twice before as professionals, and both matches went to Karatsev. The first occasion came in the qualifying of Moscow in 2014, and the second at a 2016 Challenger event in Kazan, which is also in Russia. Medvedev’s career achievements certainly outweigh those of Karatsev, as Daniil is a three-time Masters champion, the 2020 ATP Finals champion, and a two-time Major finalist. But on clay, Medvedev is 11-19 lifetime at tour-level, and prior to last week was on a six-match losing streak.
By contrast, Karatsev has only appeared in the main draw of one Slam, though he did reach the semifinals in his Major debut this past February. And between Challenger-level and tour-level events, he’s reached four clay court finals since last August. Just last week in Madrid, he came back from a-set-and-a-break down against Diego Schwartzman, which is no easy task. So on this surface, Karatsev very well might be the favorite, though defeating your country’s No.1 player is often a tricky proposition.
Other Notable Matches on Tuesday:
Garbine Muguruza (12) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova – Muguruza is a three-time semifinalist in Rome, but has never advanced farther. Last week in Madrid, Pavlyuchenkova reached her first WTA 1000 semifinal since 2010. Muguruza has taken six of their seven meetings. Pavlyuchenkova’s only win is also their only clay encounter, though Muguruza retired after the first set of that match.
Angelique Kerber vs. Alize Cornet (Q) – Kerber is just 8-8 in her career at this event. Cornet was a finalist in her Rome debut back in 2008, but has never advanced beyond the second round since that time. Kerber is 3-2 against Cornet, and 2-0 on clay, but their last two meetings went to the Frenchwoman.
Johanna Konta (16) vs. Jelena Ostapenko – The British No.1 was a finalist here in 2019, and has never lost before the third round. Ostapenko was a semifinalist here in 2018, but otherwise is just 1-4 in Rome. Konta leads their rivalry 3-2, but when they met here three years ago, Ostapenko prevailed 6-4 in the third.
Madison Keys vs. Sloane Stephens (LL) – The 2017 US Open champ is now ranked 65th in the world, and lost in qualifying this past weekend, before Karolina’s Muchova’s withdrawal gave Stephens a spot in the draw. Keys was the runner-up in that US Open final, but is just 2-5 this season. Sloane is 4-1 against Madison, with her four victories all decided in straight sets.
Matteo Berrettini (9) vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili – Berrettini is 16-4 this season, but just 5-4 in his career at his hometown’s event. Basilashvili was 0-9 after the tour restart in 2020, but bounced back to win titles in both Doha and Munich in 2021. Berrettini leads their head-to-head 2-1, though Basilashvili claimed their only match on clay.
Diego Schwartzman (8) vs. Felix Auger-Alisassime – Schwartzman achieved his first Masters 1000 final at this event last September. The 20-year-old Canadian was 0-2 in Rome before outlasting Filip Krajinovic on Sunday in a near-three-hour affair. Last fall in Cologne, Diego defeated Felix in three sets.
Pablo Carreno Busta (11) vs. Kei Nishikori – Carreno Busta won the clay event in Marbella last month. Nishikori reached the semis in Rome five years ago, but hasn’t gotten to the semis of any event in over two years. Their only two previous clashes both occurred at the Australian Open, with Kei’s five-set, five-hour win in 2019 being most memorable. Pablo avenged that loss at this year’s event.
Tuesday’s full Order of Play is here.
