The Spanish No.2 was a finalist at the 2016 Shanghai Masters, losing to Andy Murray. 23-year-old Andrey Rublev, 24-year-old Hubert Hurkacz, and 19-year-old Jannik Sinner are all making their Masters 1000 semifinal debuts.
Also on Friday, the women’s doubles semifinals will be contested, featuring two of the top teams in the world, and two teams that just formed this fortnight.
Roberto Bautista Agut (7) vs. Jannik Sinner (21) – 1:00pm on Grandstand
Their only previous meeting was only two weeks ago, in the Dubai round of 16. It was an extended affair, with Sinner prevailing 7-5 in the third. On that day, Jannik struck 16 aces, and saved five of seven break points. It will be crucial for Sinner to serve well again today, as he won only 38% of second serve points in Dubai. But that will be challenging on the slow-playing hard courts in Miami. As Jim Courier highlighted on Tennis Channel, Bautista Agut normally excels on faster surfaces. However, he’s adjusted better to these heavy conditions than opponents who also like fast courts, such as John Isner and Daniil Medvedev. Sinner doesn’t mind slower court speeds, as evidenced by his quarterfinal run at last year’s Roland Garros. Yet, the 32-year-old Roberto certainly has the experience edge over the Italian teenager, especially at this stage of a big tournament. In a match that will see a plethora of flat-hitting rallies, I give Roberto the slight edge. He is never an easy out, is exhaustingly consistent, and should be able to break Sinner a bit more easily than in Dubai.
Andrey Rublev (4) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (26) – Not before 7:00pm on Grandstand
These two have also only met once before, and that occurred last September in Rome, with Hurkacz upsetting Rublev in three sets. Their stats in that match were extremely similar, with Hubi’s ability to pull out a first set tiebreak being the difference maker. Unlike the first men’s semifinal, neither of these players received a day of rest prior to this match. Hurkacz finished his quarterfinal many hours before Rublev, whose match with Sebastian Korda was delayed multiple times by rain. But Rublev spent about an hour less on court yesterday, as Hurkacz had to fight back from a set and a break down against Stefano Tsitsipas. And the Russian has been the ATP’s winningest player since the start of 2020, with 61 match wins. During that same time span, Hurkacz has only accumulated 28 wins. Rublev’s power game is relentless regardless of the surface speed, and his current confidence level is unmatched. I like Andrey’s chances to advance to Sunday’s championship match.
Other Notable Matches on Friday:
Shuko Aoyama and Ena Shibahara (5) vs. Bethanie Mattek-Sands and Iga Swiatek – The Japanese team won their first 12 matches of the year, but then went on a four-match losing streak heading into this event. For Mattek-Sands and Swiatek, this is their first tournament as a team. They’ve dominated the competition so far without dropping a set, allowing their opponents only 10 games across six sets.
Hayley Carter and Luisa Stefani (8) vs. Gabriela Dabrowski and Giuliana Olmos – Carter and Stefani have reached two finals this season, but are yet to win a title. Dabrowski and Olmos are another team finding success in their first event as a unit.
Friday’s full Order of Play is here.
