Nadal will begin his quest for a record-breaking 21st Major title, but he is battling lower back issues which forced him to pull out of last week’s ATP Cup.
The No.1 Italian Matteo Berrettini looked strong during the ATP Cup, though today he faces a tough first round draw in a two-time Slam finalist. Stefanos Tsitsipas went 2-0 last week, and on Tuesday takes on a tricky tour veteran who is rarely an easy out. On the women’s side, two-time champion Victoria Azarenka plays an American who has recently reached two WTA hard court finals. And 2017 Roland Garros champion takes the court against a player with one of the sport’s most diverse games. Intriguingly, all of the aforementioned matchups are first-time meetings.
Each day during the coming fortnight, this preview will analyze the day’s most prominent matches, and note the other intriguing matchups on the schedule. Tuesday’s play will begin at 11:00am local time.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Laslo Djere – Third on MCA
Nadal has not played since the 21st of November, when he lost to Daniil Medvedev in the semifinals of the ATP Finals. Rafa has been dealing with lower back pain since his first practice in Australia. It prevented him from hitting serves in practice for about a week. Djere is a 25-year-old Serbian who has won two ATP titles over the last two years. However, they both came on clay. On hard courts, Djere has not won a tour-level match in over a year. So this should be straightforward for Nadal, but it all depends on how his back is feeling.
Matteo Berrettini (9) vs. Kevin Anderson – Not Before 7:00pm on MCA
I expect we’ll see a few tiebreaks between two big-serving ball strikers. Berrettini had a breakout season in 2019, winning two titles and reaching his first Major semifinal. But Matteo fought injuries last year, and went just 9-6. Anderson has struggled with even more injuries, and is only 12-11 since the start of 2020. Kevin earned two wins last week before going down in straight sets to Karen Khachanov. For both men, the Australian Open has easily been their worst Slam. Anderson is 13-12 here lifetime, while Berrettini is only 1-3. Based on his strong form last week, Matteo should be able to advance, though likely not without a stern test from the South African.
Victoria Azarenka (12) vs. Jessica Pegula – Second on MCA
Since arriving in the New York bubble last summer, Azarenka is an impressive 19-4. She won the Western & Southern Open, and reached the final of the most recent hard court Major. Vika was one of the players forced to go through 14 days of hard quarantine upon arrival in Australia. She came from behind last week to defeat a disgruntled Yulia Putintseva, saving match points along the way. But that would be her only warmup match, as she promptly withdrew from the event as a precaution. Pegula is a streaky player with considerable weapons. The American reached the final in Adelaide during last year’s Aussie summer. So while Azarenka remains the favorite, Pegula is a dangerous opponent when you’re short on match play.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (5) vs. Gilles Simon – Last on RLA
Tsitsipas made his big breakthrough at this event two years, upsetting Roger Federer on his way to the semifinals. Stefanos suffered some heartbreaking losses last September, but quickly rebounded to achieve his second Slam semi in Paris. This will be the 15th main draw appearance in Melbourne for Simon, who in 2016 famously drew 100 errors out of Novak Djokovic despite losing in five sets. Tsitsipas has never played the cerebral Frenchman before, and Simon can be quite the frustrating opponent. But Stefanos has a lot more firepower in his game, which the fast courts on Rod Laver Arena should reward.
Karolina Muchova (25) vs. Jelena Ostapenko – Fourth on Court 17
Muchova first made a name for herself at Wimbledon in 2019, when she reached the quarterfinals with three victories over top 20 seeds, including her fellow countrywoman Karolina Pliskova. The 24-year-old has proven she can play on this surface as well. Muchova’s only WTA title came on a hard court, and she reached the second week of last year’s US Open. One can never be quite sure what to expect out of Ostapenko. She reached the quarterfinals or better at three Majors between 2017 and 2018, but since that time has a 5-6 record at Slams. Her go-for-broke style often dictates the outcome of matches, and she can often lose control of her emotions on court. I like the all-around game of the more reliable Muchova in this matchup, as unlike Ostapenko, she can revert to Plan B or Plan C if necessary.
Other Notable Matches on Day 2:
Defending champion Sofia Kenin (4) vs. Maddison Inglis (WC), a 23-year-old Australian. Kenin is coming off a 6-2, 6-2 drubbing at the hands of last year’s runner-up, Garbine Muguruza.
Garbine Muguruza (14) vs. Margarita Gasparyan (LL). Muguruza lost to Ash Barty two days in the final of the Yarra Valley Classic. Gasparyan reached the fourth round in Melbourne five years ago, but is just 4-10 at Majors ever since.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Danka Kovinic, a 26-year-old from Montenegro. Barty’s title run last week was her first time on court since last February. Ash has claimed 15 of her last 17 matches.
ATP Finals champion Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Vasek Pospisil. Medvedev has won his last 14 matches, with 10 of those victories over top 10 opponents.
In a first round encounter between two accomplished top 40 players, two-time Major champion Svetlana Kuznetsova vs. Barbora Strycova, a 2019 Wimbledon semifinalist. Kuznetsova leads their head-to-head 2-1, though Strycova nabbed their most recent meeting, three years ago at Wimbledon.
Teenage phenom Coco Gauff vs. Jil Teichman. They just played nine days ago, with Coco prevailing in a third set tiebreak.
Tuesday’s full order of play is here.
