Djokovic is 17-0 in Australian Open semifinals and finals. Medvedev is 20-0 in his last 20 matches. One of those streaks will end on Sunday.
11 years ago at this event, Novak Djokovic won his first Major title. It would take three more years for Djokovic to win his second, but he went on a tear over the last decade, claiming 16 Slams between 2011 and 2020. Regardless of today’s result, he is guaranteed to remain the world No.1, and will overtake Roger Federer for the most weeks at No.1. A win today would place him just two Majors behind Federer and Nadal, with half of his Slam titles coming on Rod Laver Arena.
Four years ago at this event, Daniil Medvedev made his Grand Slam debut, losing in the first round of the 2017 Australian Open to American qualifier Ernesto Escobedo. Two years later in Melbourne, Medvedev would advance to the second week of a Slam for the first time, and achieved his first Major final later that year in New York. That was part of a run where he reached six consecutive tournament finals, winning three of those events with a match record of 29-3. Due to a drop in form, as well as the pandemic tour shutdown, it would be another year before he would win another title. But now he’s on a similarly impressive streak, winning his last 20 matches, and 12 in a row over top ten opposition. With a win today, he would not only earn his first Major, he would also ascend to No.2 in the world, becoming the first man outside “The Big Four” to do so since Lleyton Hewitt in 2005.
The men’s doubles final will also take place on Sunday, with the defending champions looking for their second consecutive title in Melbourne.
Sunday’s action will begin at 3:00pm local time with the men’s doubles championship, followed by the men’s singles championship at 7:30pm.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Daniil Medvedev (4)
Djokovic leads their head-to-head 4-3 overall, and 3-2 on hard courts. Their only previous match at a Major occurred at this tournament two years ago, when Djokovic prevailed in four sets, but not without Medvedev exhausting the eight-time champion. Daniil’s first victory would come later that year on clay in Monte Carlo. A few months later, at the Cincinnati Masters, Medvedev was down a set and a break when he decided to just start bludgeoning the ball, hitting Djokovic right off the court. Medvedev also claimed their most recent encounter, comfortably winning in straight sets last November at the ATP Finals.
Djokovic experienced a bumpier road than usual to this championship match. He played four straight matches that went at least four sets, and struggled mid-tournament with an abdominal injury. Medvedev picked up his first-ever five-set win over Filip Krajinovic, but otherwise hasn’t dropped a set in his other five matches. Daniil has served magnificently during this fortnight, striking 74 aces and just 18 double faults, and winning 81% of first serve points. It will be crucial for the Russian to maintain those levels against the best returner of all-time. However, that will be extremely challenging considering temperatures are forecast to be quite cool on Sunday evening, resulting in the courts playing a bit slower. Djokovic has also been serving extremely well, and has hit an inordinate amount of aces this tournament, with 95 aces and 21 doubles. Both men will look to attack their opponent’s second serve, which Medvedev was much more effective at doing three months ago in London, winning 61% of second serve points compared to only 43% by Djokovic.
Medvedev is vying to become the newest Major champion in the sport, and to become only the third man outside “The Big Four” to defeat one of “The Big Four” in a Slam final (Stan Wawrinka, Juan Martin Del Petro). He’ll surely strut onto the court believing he can win: not only due to his current winning streak, but also recalling the way he was able to push Rafael Nadal to the brink of defeat in his first Slam final. However, until Novak Djokovic loses a semifinal or final on this court, he must be considered the favorite to win his 18th Major title.
Other Notable Matches on Day 14:
In the men’s doubles final, it’s defending champions Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury (5) vs. Ivan Dodig and Filip Polasek (9), who won two tour titles in 2019. Rajeev Ram already won the mixed doubles title on Saturday with Barbora Krejcikova.
Sunday’s full order of play is here.
