The winner will join Dominic Thiem as the two players from Group London to qualify for Saturday’s semifinals.
Nadal narrowly lost an incredible encounter with Thiem on Tuesday, tying Rafa with Tsitsipas at a record of 1-1. Stefanos scarcely survived a third set tiebreak two days ago against Andrey Rublev, who double faulted while holding a match point. Both men will surely be a bit physically and emotionally drained as they walk onto court today. Thursday’s other singles match is a dead rubber, as Thiem has already advanced with a 2-0 record, and Rublev has already been eliminated with an 0-2 record.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (6)
Nadal has dominated their head-to-head 5-1, with Tsitsipas’ only victory coming at last year’s Madrid Masters on clay. Their best match was also their most recent, which took place a year ago at this event. In a near three-hour battle, Nadal prevailed 7-5 in the third. The difference on that day was Stefanos’ inability to break Rafa’s serve, failing to even earn a break point in the match. Nadal won an excellent 85% of first serve points. But two days ago against Thiem, Rafa only served at 60% on his first serve, winning 69% of those points. It will be crucial for Nadal to increase those percentages today. Thus far this week, Rafa has been the better player. Tsitsipas undoubtedly is feeling pressure to back up his championship run from 12 months ago. In a matchup that has strongly favored Nadal, he should win today and advance to the semifinals for the first time since 2015.
Dominic Thiem (3) vs. Andrey Rublev (7)
A year ago, Thiem came into the fifth day of this tournament with a 2-0 record, having already qualified for the semifinals with consecutive victories over Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. And in his final round-robin match, he lost in straight sets to ATP Finals debutante Matteo Berrettini, who had already been eliminated from semifinal contention. Today, Dominic is in the same exact scenario, against an 0-2 tournament newbie in Andrey Rublev. While this match will have no impact on which players advance, it could effect Thiem’s confidence going into this weekend. Having come so close to winning this event last year, Dominic will surely be keen to avoid the same pitfall as last year, and aim to go undefeated in round-robin play. And of course, Rublev will want to avoid an 0-3 run in his debut. These two ball-sluggers have split their four previous meetings, with Andrey claiming the last two. That includes a straight set victory just a few weeks ago in Vienna. But I still like Thiem’s chances to prevail. Compared to a year ago, the newly-minted Major champion is a more experienced and mature player, and I don’t think he’ll allow the same letdown to occur today. Plus, Rublev must be a bit shaken by double faulting on match point just 48 hours ago.
Doubles Matches on Day 5:
Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury (2) vs. Kevin Krawietz and Andreas Mies (3). The winning team will advance to the semifinals, while the losing team will be eliminated from the tournament.
Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic (5) vs. Lukasz Kubot and Marcelo Melo (8). Koolhof and Mektic have already qualified for the semifinals, while Kubot and Melo are 0-2 and ineligible for advancement.
Full order of play is here.
