Following Diego Schwartzman’s stunning defeat of Rafael Nadal, are more upsets to come?
The most marquee match of the day is a WTA blockbuster between two Roland Garros champions. The other women’s semifinal will be decided between two Major finalists from the Czech Republic. On the men’s side, four-time Rome champion Novak Djokovic is yet to face a seeded player, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t been challenged by his competition, with another red-hot opponent today. And just 24 hours after what he described as his “best match ever,” Diego Schwartzman faces one of the ATP’s best players since the tour restart, who is poised to make his top 10 debut.
Simona Halep (1) vs. Garbine Muguruza (9)
It’s the 2016 French Open champion against the 2018 champ, both of whom are two-time Major winners. Top-seeded Halep has looked stellar this week, and is yet to drop a set. Muguruza’s road has been considerably more challenging. She’s had to fight hard to outlast some stiff opposition: Sloane Stephens, Coco Gauff, Johanna Konta, and Victoria Azarenka. So while that’s built Garbine’s confidence, it also means she’s spent almost twice as much time on court. Muguruza leads their head-to-head 4-2, which includes their most recent meeting, earlier this year in the Australian Open semifinals. However, their only two matches on clay have gone to Halep. And Simona is on a 12-match winning streak, having won her last two events played. These slow-playing courts in Rome favor the speed and defense of the top seed. A fresh Halep is the favorite to reach her third Rome final in the last four years.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Casper Ruud
Djokovic has not looked his best thus far, yet has survived some high quality tennis from the likes of Filip Krajinovic and Dominik Koepfer. Casper Ruud is another dangerous unseeded player who comes into this match with a lot of momentum. This week he already took out Karen Khachanov, Marin Cilic, and Matteo Berrettini. The 21-year-old from Norway arrived in Rome with only two match wins at Masters 1,000 events. But Casper can play on the clay: earlier this season he reached the final in Santiago, and won his first ATP title in Buenos Aires. However, defeating the world No.1 in their first career meeting is a big ask. Novak’s only loss this year was his default at the US Open, and I don’t expect that to change today.
Karolina Pliskova (2) vs. Marketa Vondrousova (12)
Vondrousova was the surprise finalist at last year’s Roland Garros. But due to injury, she would only play three more matches in 2019. It’s been a struggle for the 21-year-old lefty to return to form. Marketa was just 4-8 in this abbreviated season prior to this event. After surviving a few close calls earlier this week, she steamrolled two-time champion Elina Svitolina yesterday 6-3, 6-0. Today she faces another former champion. The winner here a year ago, Pliskova is on an eight-match winning streak at this event. Karolina dropped a set yesterday to Elise Mertens, but there’s no shame in that: Mertens is a tough out. And Karolina closed out that match with a 6-0 third set, playing her best tennis yet this week. In their only prior encounter, Karolina prevailed in straight sets last year on a hard court in Miami. Vondrousova’s variety could prove frustrating, and playing a much-younger countrywoman can be tricky. But Pliskova remains the favorite to reach her second consecutive final in Rome.
Diego Schwartzman (8) vs. Denis Shapovalov (12)
This is Diego’s second straight year advancing to the semifinals of this event, which are the only two occasions he’s done so at a Masters 1,000 tournament. For Shapovalov, it’s his fifth Masters 1,000 semi, and he reached the final last year in Bercy. Their first career meeting will also be one of the most important matches of their careers to date. Shapovalov has accumulated eight match wins over the last three weeks, reaching his first Major quarterfinal in New York. That’s a lot of tennis for the 21-year-old Canadian, including back-to-back three-setters over the last two days. But a lack of energy doesn’t ever seem to be Denis’ problem. And it would only be natural for Schwartzman to have a letdown coming off his first-career win over the King of Clay. With Mikhail Youzhny helping Shapovalov improve his shot selection, his offense is becoming more sustainable. He should be favored to play in Monday’s final.
Other Notable Matches on Day 7:
In the women’s doubles final, 2019 Wimbledon champions Su-Wei Hsieh and Barbora Strycova (1) vs. Anna-Lena Friedsam and Raluca Olaru, who are in their first tournament as a team.
In the men’s doubles final, 2019 US Open finalists Marcel Garollers and Horacio Zeballos (4) vs. Jeremy Chardy and Fabrice Martin, the 2019 French Open finalists.
Full order of play is here.
