By Matthew Marolf
This is the fifth Major semi-final for Dominic Thiem, having advanced this far in Paris the past four years. His hard court skills have vastly improved over the past 18 months, and on Wednesday he finally defeated Rafael Nadal at a Slam. Now he’s one match away from reaching his third Slam final.
This is the first Major semi-final for Sascha Zverev, who has finally broken through at a Slam in surprising fashion. Prior to this event, 17 of his 50 career matches at Majors had gone five sets, which shows how often he’s played extended matches at these events. Despite having significant issues with his serve over the past six months, he’s miraculously turned around his service woes, and advanced to this stage dropping only one set.
Dominic Thiem (5) vs. Sascha Zverev (7)
Thiem leads their head-to-head 6-2, with a 2-0 record at Majors, and a 2-1 edge on hard courts. He certainly has the experience edge in Slam semi-finals, but he’s spent a lot more time on court during this fortnight. Thiem has logged almost 15 hours on court through five matches, four hours more than Zverev. And while their quarterfinal matches both were decided in four sets, Dominic’s was almost twice as long as Sascha’s. Another significant factor will be the weather, as it’s forecast to be oppressively hot even in the evening as this match begins.
There’s a chance the roof on Rod Laver Arena may be closed for the beginning of this contest, though both these men have won indoor hard court titles so that may not considerably favour either one. If the roof is open, that may actually favour Zverev, who will be the fresher player. Plus, Thiem plays better in cooler, slower conditions where he has more time to set up his big swings. All things considered, I give the slight edge to Thiem. His experience in this situation should prove vital. And he played a physically and emotionally demanding match against an all-time great two days ago, he’s one of the fittest guys on tour, and should have plenty of energy left for this one.
