Both women’s semifinals will be decided during the day session, during the hottest time of the day. They feature three Major champions who are yet to win a Slam on hard courts, and a 21-year-old American new to this stage. Following four straight-set women’s quarterfinals, we are due for some drama today. The first men’s semifinal will be played in this evening, and it will be the 50th career meeting between two of the sport’s all-time greats.
Ash Barty (1) vs. Sofia Kenin (14)
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The Australian No.1 continues to impress, as she successfully copes with the pressure of high expectations at her home Slam. While Ash appeared a bit edgy at times on Tuesday against Petra Kvitova, it did not significantly impact her play. She’s now into her second Major semifinal, and will have the experience edge against her opponent. Barty also owns a 4-1 record over Kenin, will all those matches taking place within the last two years. But Sofia’s only win came on a similarly-paced hard court last summer in Canada. And Kenin has quickly proven herself to be one of the WTA’s toughest competitors, and does not give her opposition many easy points. However, I could see Sofia being a little overwhelmed by this occasion, and at times she can get a bit down on herself. With the edge in experience, more variety in her game, and the boisterous Aussie crowd behind her, Barty should be favored to reach her second Major final.
Simona Halep (4) vs. Garbine Muguruza
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Each of these women have won Majors on clay and grass, and are now vying for their first hard court Slam. And they have been the two most impressive WTA players during this fortnight. Halep is yet to drop a set, and many have remarked on how positive she has remained on court through five rounds. But her composure should be thoroughly tested today, by a rejuvenated Muguruza who is back to playing with the focus and determination that won her two Majors. Muguruza dropped sets in her first two matches while she was battling a virus, but has cleanly advanced through her last three rounds against three seeded players. Their last meeting was also in the semifinal of a Slam, at the 2018 French Open. Halep comfortably prevailed on that day 6-1, 6-4. The hot conditions today should favor Garbine’s power, though Simona’s stamina could become an advantage the longer the match goes. And I do expect this to be an extended affair. In what should be a tight contest, I give the slight edge to the speed, endurance, and positivity of Halep.
Novak Djokovic (2) vs. Roger Federer (3)
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Djokovic leads their head-to-head 26-23, and has won nine of their last 12 meetings. Their last encounter at a Major was the best match of 2019: the first Wimbledon final to be decided by a final set tiebreak at 12-12. Djokovic prevailed that day thanks to winning three tiebreak sets, and despite winning less points overall. Federer would get a small dose of revenge a few months ago in the same city, when he defeated Novak in the round robin stage of the ATP Finals. But Federer comes into this match at much less than 100%, and is frankly lucky to still be in this tournament. He came back from an 8-4 deficit in the final set tiebreak against John Millman in the third round, and then somehow saved seven match points against Tennys Sandgren two days ago. Roger appeared to be dealing with multiple injury issues on Tuesday, and will only have 48 hours to try to recover and heal. While Federer has notched some wins over Djokovic of late in best-of-three matches, he hasn’t beaten Novak at a Major since 2012. And he hasn’t defeated Djokovic at a hard court Major since 2009. Roger is a meek (by his high standards) 7-7 in Australian Open semifinals, while Novak has never lost in a semifinal or final in Melbourne. Djokovic is a heavy favorite to reach his eighth championship match down under.
Order of play
Rod Laver Arena
From 00:00am
I. Dodig (4)/F. Polasek (4) v M. Purcell/L. Saville
Not before 3:00am
A. Barty (1) v S. Kenin (14)
S. Halep (4) v G. Muguruza
From 8:30am
R. Federer (3) v N. Djokovic (2)
TBA v TBA (Legends)
