Roger Federer (4) vs. Dominic Thiem
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Of course the career statistics between these two are vastly different. Here’s just one example: this is only Thiem’s third Masters 1,000 final, while this is Federer’s 49th. But an important statistic in this match-up is their career head-to-head, as they’ve split their four previous meetings. Federer has won both hard court matches, while Thiem prevailed on clay, and surprisingly on grass. They last played at last November’s ATP Finals, in a round robin match which Roger won in straight sets. Yet as Darren Cahill highlighted on ESPN in the US, the indoor court in London plays much differently than the slower and grainier court in Indian Wells. It’s also been cooler than usual this year in the desert, making for even slower conditions. That all plays to Thiem’s favor, who likes to have extra time to set up his big swings.
“It’s always something special to play him and also something special to compete in a Masters 1000 final. It’s only my third one. I have pretty bad stats in those finals.” Thiem said.
“I know it’s going to be very tough, but same time, I will give everything to hopefully win my first (Masters) title.”
Federer will enjoy hearing that Sunday will be the hottest day yet of this fortnight. When Thiem is on, he’s capable of out-hitting just about anyone. And his hard court play has improved dramatically over the past 12 months. With a win today, Thiem would surpass Federer in the rankings, taking over the No.4 spot. A year ago in the Indian Wells final, Federer was upset by another player going for their first Masters 1,000 title in Juan Martin Del Potro. Roger lost that emotionally-charged final despite having match points. While another upset in this final is entirely possible, I like Federer’s chances to avenge his loss here of a year ago. Roger is the more in-form player, as he’s on an 11-match win streak. He hasn’t dropped a set in this tournament, and only lost his serve once on the way to this final. And like the women’s final, experience on this stage may play a significant factor.
“He is a very interesting player, like Stan (Wawrinka).” Federer commented of Thiem whilst talking with Swiss media. “He can play from the back and in the court. His one-handed backhand has a lot of topspin and a lot of power, and he resembles Stan. He plays a little bit more with Slice and tends to get too passive at times.”
“I’m a big fan of his.” He added.
Quick facts
- Federer is targeting his 101st ATP title and a record sixth in Indian Wells
- Thiem is bidding to become the 67th person to win a Masters title since the category was introduced back in 1990
- Federer has saved 15 out of 16 break points he has faced on route to the final
- The winner of the match will also claim the world No.4 spot, which is currently held by Federer
- Federer is bidding to become only the third player in history to win a 28th Masters 1000 title. Following in the footsteps of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic
- Thiem is the first Austrian – man or woman – to contest a final in the history of the tournament
