Australian Open Day 11 Preview: The Semifinals Commence - UBITENNIS
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Australian Open Day 11 Preview: The Semifinals Commence

On Thursday in Melbourne, we’ll see the first men’s semifinal, as well as both women’s semifinals.

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We were one point away from the huge US Open rematch the tennis world was anticipating… until Karolina Pliskova’s stunning comeback over Serena Williams. Instead, Pliskova and Naomi Osaka will battle it out to make their second Major final. In the other women’s semifinal, one of the most inspiring semifinalists in recent memory takes on one of the most shocking. And three of the four remaining women are fighting to become the new world No.1. In the men’s semifinal to be played on Thursday, it’s the second year in a row where the ATP Next Gen Finals champion will face an all-time great in their first Major semifinal.

Naomi Osaka (4) vs. Karolina Pliskova (7)

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Pliskova holds a 2-1 edge over Osaka in their head-to-head. Karolina prevailed at the 2017 Rogers Cup in a match where Osaka retired early in the third set. Osaka won last March at Indian Wells, on the way to her big breakthrough title on the WTA tour. And in September of last year, Pliskova won in straight sets. Osaka handily took out Elina Svitolina in her quarterfinal, and should be totally fresh today. Just yesterday, Pliskova played an over two-hour, dramatic match with Serena Williams. Karolina was all but eliminated from the tournament, down 5-1 in the third set. That is until Serena was called for a foot fault on match point, then hurt her foot as the point played out, and lost the next six games. It was one of the most shocking turn of events ever seen in a Major quarterfinal. It’s also one of the biggest wins in Pliskova’s career, and the second time she’s upset Serena at a Major. But you have to expect that emotional match will be hard to come back from just one day later. Osaka is the better all-around player, with much better defensive skills, and more speed around the court. Pliskova though has been serving extremely well, and is undefeated this season, just like her Czech countrywoman in the other semifinal. Could we have an all-Czech final on Saturday? Perhaps, but I would give the slight edge to Osaka to advance to her second straight Major final.

Petra Kvitova (8) vs. Danielle Collins

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Kvitova is into her first Major semifinal since Wimbledon 2014, and her first since the home intrusion that left her with nerve damage in her left hand. Last year, she led the WTA with five titles, yet struggled at the Majors with a 4-4 record. But Kvitova has downed her opposition quite comfortably at this Major, and is yet to drop a set. It was heartwarming to see Petra brought to tears with happiness after her quarterfinal when asked by Jim Courier if she thought she’d ever be back in a Slam semifinal. She’ll face the unlikeliest of opponents, a 25-year-old American who had never won a match at a Major prior to this tournament. In that way, her run at this tournament is reminiscent of Marco Cecchinato’s semifinal run from Roland Garros last year. Collins has ruffled some feathers with her cocky demeanor and in-your-face attitude, but she’s backed it up with some ferocious groundstrokes. She hit Angelique Kerber right off the court in less than an hour, and then came back from a set down to dominate Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in a one-sided 6-1 third set. These two actually just played a few weeks ago in Brisbane, their only career meeting. Kvitova prevailed in an extremely tight three-setter that lasted three full hours. It’s hard to imagine the unseeded and unproven Collins getting to the final, but it’s entirely possible if she gets hot again. And Kvitova is usually good for at least one poor performance at every Major, and she hasn’t had one yet. Also, the weather could play an important factor today. Temperatures are forecasted to get extremely toasty, and we’ve seen previously how Kvitova’s level can be impacted by the heat. All things considered, I would still expect the much more experienced Kvitova to find a way to defeat the relative unknown in a Major semifinal on Rod Laver Arena.

Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (14)

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Is Tsitsipas capable of taking down another GOAT contender at this tournament? Nadal is the man who put a stop to both of Stefanos’ other two breakout runs this past year. In the Barcelona final in April, Nadal lost just three games. And at the Rogers Cup in Toronto last August, Tsitsipas had defeated four top 10 players before Nadal beat him in straight sets in the final. And judging by Rafa’s form over the past 10 days, he’ll likely end Tsistipas’ tournament here as well. Nadal has won 15 sets and lost none, which is exactly what the doctor ordered for a man who has withdrawn or retired from the vast majority of hard court tournaments he’s entered in the past 15 months. Rafa is into his 30th career Major semifinal, and holds a phenomenal 24-5 record at this stage. He is however 0-2 in his last two Slam semifinals, with losses to Djokovic at Wimbledon and Del Potro at the US Open. But the following statistic supplied by ATP Media Info on Twitter is in Rafa’s favor: against players 21-and-under, he is 9-0 at the Australian Open, and 34-3 at all Grand Slam events. More good news for Nadal? He has only spent about 10 hours on court thus far, while Tsitsipas has spent about 50% more. Stefanos has shown his game is just as much substance as flash at this tournament, not only in his upset of Roger Federer, but also following up that career highlight by defeating Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinals. While just about all the statistics support a Nadal victory, I’m interested to see how much resistance Tsitsipas can provide.

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Indian Wells Daily Preview: The Championship Matches in Men’s and Women’s Singles

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Iga Swiatek during Friday’s semifinals (twitter.com/BNPPARIBASOPEN)

It’s championship Sunday in tennis paradise, featuring rematches from recent finals in the desert.

In the women’s singles championship match, it’s a rematch from the 2022 final, as World No.1 Iga Swiatek faces a rejuvenated Maria Sakkari.  And the men’s singles championship match is a rematch from just a year ago, as Carlos Alcaraz takes on Daniil Medvedev.  Will Iga and Carlitos become multi-time champions of this event, or will Maria and Daniil win their first Indian Wells titles?


Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Maria Sakkari (9) – 11:00am on Stadium 1

This is yet another tournament during which Swiatek has gone completely unchallenged.  She has not dropped a set, and lost only 17 games through nine completed sets.  Iga is 7-2 in WTA 1000 finals, and an excellent 18-4 in tour finals overall.

By contrast, four out of Sakkari’s five matches this fortnight have gone three sets, including the last two against top Americans Coco Gauff and Emma Navarro.  Friday’s night’s semifinal against Gauff was a dramatic, extended affair, which went late into the evening due to a long rain delay in the desert.  Playing such a draining contest, and then coming back just 36 hours later to play at 11:00am in the morning, with be an extremely challenging turnaround for Maria.

After a subpar 2023 season, Sakkari is back to playing her best tennis, in the first tournament of the working relationship with her new coach, David Witt.  She is 1-2 in WTA 1000 finals, though she just won her first title at this level six months ago in Guadalajara.  But Maria is a meek 2-7 in tour finals, and as per Tennis Abstract, is just 3-7 against top 10 opposition within the last year.

Sakkari claimed their first two meetings, back in 2021 before Swiatek rose to the top of the sport.  The last three have all gone to Iga, with the most recent being the 2022 final at this same event.  All five of their matches have been straight-setters.  So while this is Maria’s favorite event, and her new coach has helped restore her confidence, Iga remains a clear favorite to win her second title in Indian Wells.


Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2)  – Not Before 2:00pm on Stadium 1

Despite playing in a location where “it never rains,” both the men’s and women’s semifinals suffered from severe rain delays, leading to the men’s semis finishing much later on Saturday than expected.  And both went three sets, so neither Alcaraz nor Medvedev will be fully fresh on Sunday.  Carlitos came back from a set down to hand Jannik Sinner his first defeat of the year, while Daniil came from a set down to oust American Tommy Paul.

In the championship here a year ago, Alcaraz comfortably prevailed against a depleted Medvedev, who had won 19 matches in the month leading up to that final.  They would go on to play three more times in 2023, with Carlitos taking three of four.  However, Daniil was able to overcome the Spaniard in the US Open semifinals, winning 6-3 in the fourth.  Overall Alcaraz is 3-2 against Medvedev.

Carlitos has not been the same player since losing the near four-hour final last summer in Cincinnati to Novak Djokovic.  But his victory over Sinner on Saturday felt significant, and it brought him to his first final since that one in Cincinnati. 

Alcaraz is 12-4 in ATP finals, and 4-1 at this level.  Medvedev is 20-17 in ATP finals, and 6-3 in Masters finals.  Hard courts easily remain Daniil’s strongest surface, though he made it painfully clear here a year ago that the slower-playing courts in Indian Wells are not to his liking.  And coming off an inspiring effort to defeat Sinner, the ATP’s best player of the last six months, Carlitos should be favored to become the first man to defend this title since Djokovic in 2016.


Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Indian Wells Daily Preview: Alcaraz and Sinner Reignite an Electrifying Rivalry in the Semifinals

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Jannik Sinner during Thursday’s quarterfinals (twitter.com/BNPPARIBASOPEN)

The men’s singles semifinals will be played on Saturday, as will the women’s doubles championship match.

18 months ago at the US Open, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner contested one of the best matches in recent memory.  After five hours and 15 minutes of scintillating rallies, Alcaraz would prevail 6-3 in the fifth, and go on to claim his first Major a few days later.  On Saturday, they meet for the eighth time at tour level, in the most anticipated semifinal of the fortnight.

The other men’s singles semifinal sees last year’s runner-up, Daniil Medvedev, take on the No.2-ranked American, Tommy Paul.

Plus, the women’s doubles final features two of the top three seeds.  At 11:00am local time, it will be Su-Wei Hsieh and Elise Mertens (1) vs. Storm Hunter and Katerina Siniakova (3).  At January’s Australian Open, Su-Wei and Mertens defeated Hunter and Siniakova in the semifinals, before going on to win the title.


Jannik Sinner (3) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Not Before 1:30pm on Stadium 1

Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-3, and 3-2 on hard courts.  They’ve met three times since the aforementioned 2022 US Open epic, including in the same round of this same event a year ago, when Alcaraz prevailed in straight sets.  Two weeks later in the semis of Miami, Jannik claimed a three-hour three-setter.  And six months ago in Beijing, the Italian won in straights.

These two phenomenal players have achieved contrasting results across the past six months.  Sinner is now 36-2 since last summer’s US Open, with four singles titles.  He also propelled Italy to the Davis Cup title.  Jannik has beaten Novak Djokovic three times during this span, and also achieved his first Major championship.  However, within that same time, Alcaraz has reached no tournament finals, and is 0-4 in his last four semifinals.

Jannik is an undefeated 16-0 in 2024, and has not dropped a set in Indian Wells.  Carlitos is 10-3 this season, and has taken eight consecutive sets after losing the first set he played here last week.  Based on recent form, Sinner is a considerable favorite to advance to his first championship match in the desert.  And in doing so, he would take the No.2 ranking away from Alcaraz, reaching a new career-high.


Tommy Paul (17) vs. Daniil Medvedev (4) – Last on Stadium 1

Medvedev is 13-2 on the year, and has now appeared in the semifinals in all three tournaments he’s played this season.  He dropped one set earlier in the event, to Sebastian Korda.  Daniil is vying for his second consecutive final in Indian Wells, and his first Masters 1000 final since surprisingly winning a clay court title almost a year ago in Rome.

This is a second semifinal at this level for Paul, after first achieving this feat last summer in Canada, where he upset Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.  The 26-year-old American had a poor ending to his 2023 season, going 6-8, but is now 14-4 in 2024 after reaching back-to-back finals last month in Dallas and Delray Beach.  Like Daniil, Tommy has lost just one set this fortnight, in the quarterfinals to Casper Ruud.

Paul is extremely quick around the court, and likes to use his forehand to end points.  Yet he has an 0-2 record against Medvedev, which includes a 6-2, 6-1 loss six months ago in Beijing.  While the crowd will be solidly behind Tommy, Daniil’s hard court abilities are well-established, and the fourth seed should be favored on Saturday.


Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Novak Djokovic Announces Withdrawal From Miami Open

Novak Djokovic will not be playing the Miami Open after losing early in Indian Wells.

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(@BNPPARIBASOPEN - Twitter)

Novak Djokovic has announced that he has withdrawn from the second Masters 1000 of the season in Miami.

The news comes after the world number one lost in the third round of Indian Wells to lucky loser Luca Nardi.

Many people expected Djokovic to play in Miami given the Serb’s result in California.

However that appears not to be the case as Djokovic has announce on X that he has withdrawn from the tournament.

This means for the second time in three years Djokovic will enter the clay court season without winning a trophy.

The Serb will look to change that stat when he plays the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters which starts on the 7th of April.

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