We were one point away from the huge US Open rematch the tennis world was anticipating… until Karolina Pliskova’s stunning comeback over Serena Williams. Instead, Pliskova and Naomi Osaka will battle it out to make their second Major final. In the other women’s semifinal, one of the most inspiring semifinalists in recent memory takes on one of the most shocking. And three of the four remaining women are fighting to become the new world No.1. In the men’s semifinal to be played on Thursday, it’s the second year in a row where the ATP Next Gen Finals champion will face an all-time great in their first Major semifinal.

Naomi Osaka (4) vs. Karolina Pliskova (7)

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Pliskova holds a 2-1 edge over Osaka in their head-to-head. Karolina prevailed at the 2017 Rogers Cup in a match where Osaka retired early in the third set. Osaka won last March at Indian Wells, on the way to her big breakthrough title on the WTA tour. And in September of last year, Pliskova won in straight sets. Osaka handily took out Elina Svitolina in her quarterfinal, and should be totally fresh today. Just yesterday, Pliskova played an over two-hour, dramatic match with Serena Williams. Karolina was all but eliminated from the tournament, down 5-1 in the third set. That is until Serena was called for a foot fault on match point, then hurt her foot as the point played out, and lost the next six games. It was one of the most shocking turn of events ever seen in a Major quarterfinal. It’s also one of the biggest wins in Pliskova’s career, and the second time she’s upset Serena at a Major. But you have to expect that emotional match will be hard to come back from just one day later. Osaka is the better all-around player, with much better defensive skills, and more speed around the court. Pliskova though has been serving extremely well, and is undefeated this season, just like her Czech countrywoman in the other semifinal. Could we have an all-Czech final on Saturday? Perhaps, but I would give the slight edge to Osaka to advance to her second straight Major final.

Petra Kvitova (8) vs. Danielle Collins

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Kvitova is into her first Major semifinal since Wimbledon 2014, and her first since the home intrusion that left her with nerve damage in her left hand. Last year, she led the WTA with five titles, yet struggled at the Majors with a 4-4 record. But Kvitova has downed her opposition quite comfortably at this Major, and is yet to drop a set. It was heartwarming to see Petra brought to tears with happiness after her quarterfinal when asked by Jim Courier if she thought she’d ever be back in a Slam semifinal. She’ll face the unlikeliest of opponents, a 25-year-old American who had never won a match at a Major prior to this tournament. In that way, her run at this tournament is reminiscent of Marco Cecchinato’s semifinal run from Roland Garros last year. Collins has ruffled some feathers with her cocky demeanor and in-your-face attitude, but she’s backed it up with some ferocious groundstrokes. She hit Angelique Kerber right off the court in less than an hour, and then came back from a set down to dominate Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova in a one-sided 6-1 third set. These two actually just played a few weeks ago in Brisbane, their only career meeting. Kvitova prevailed in an extremely tight three-setter that lasted three full hours. It’s hard to imagine the unseeded and unproven Collins getting to the final, but it’s entirely possible if she gets hot again. And Kvitova is usually good for at least one poor performance at every Major, and she hasn’t had one yet. Also, the weather could play an important factor today. Temperatures are forecasted to get extremely toasty, and we’ve seen previously how Kvitova’s level can be impacted by the heat. All things considered, I would still expect the much more experienced Kvitova to find a way to defeat the relative unknown in a Major semifinal on Rod Laver Arena.

Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (14)

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Is Tsitsipas capable of taking down another GOAT contender at this tournament? Nadal is the man who put a stop to both of Stefanos’ other two breakout runs this past year. In the Barcelona final in April, Nadal lost just three games. And at the Rogers Cup in Toronto last August, Tsitsipas had defeated four top 10 players before Nadal beat him in straight sets in the final. And judging by Rafa’s form over the past 10 days, he’ll likely end Tsistipas’ tournament here as well. Nadal has won 15 sets and lost none, which is exactly what the doctor ordered for a man who has withdrawn or retired from the vast majority of hard court tournaments he’s entered in the past 15 months. Rafa is into his 30th career Major semifinal, and holds a phenomenal 24-5 record at this stage. He is however 0-2 in his last two Slam semifinals, with losses to Djokovic at Wimbledon and Del Potro at the US Open. But the following statistic supplied by ATP Media Info on Twitter is in Rafa’s favor: against players 21-and-under, he is 9-0 at the Australian Open, and 34-3 at all Grand Slam events. More good news for Nadal? He has only spent about 10 hours on court thus far, while Tsitsipas has spent about 50% more. Stefanos has shown his game is just as much substance as flash at this tournament, not only in his upset of Roger Federer, but also following up that career highlight by defeating Roberto Bautista Agut in the quarterfinals. While just about all the statistics support a Nadal victory, I’m interested to see how much resistance Tsitsipas can provide.