Australian Open Day 10 Preview: The Quarter-Finals Conclude - UBITENNIS
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Australian Open Day 10 Preview: The Quarter-Finals Conclude

The semi-final line-up will be complete after day ten as we move a step closer to finding out who will win the opening grand slams of the 2019 season.

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Serena Williams (photo by chryslène caillaud, copyright @Sport Vision)

By Matthew Marolf 

Seven-Time Champion Serena Williams and Six-Time Champion Novak Djokovic each have three players standing in their way of returning to the finals in Melbourne.

The seeds in the top half of the women’s draw have held to this stage, with the only exception being World No.1 Simona Halep.  She was knocked out by Serena Williams on Monday night. On the men’s top half, the seeds have held in Djokovic’s section, but we have Milos Raonic and Lucas Pouille in place of Sascha Zverev and Dominic Thiem. Are we in for any upsets in Wednesday’s semi-finals? Let’s take a closer look at each matchup.

Karolina Pliskova (7) vs. Serena Williams (16)

This is a rematch from last September’s US Open quarter-finals, where Serena took out Pliskova in straight sets.  That avenged a loss from two years prior at the same tournament, when Pliskova upset Serena in the US Open semi-finals. Serena prevailed in their only other meeting, at Stanford in 2014.  Serena’s victory over Halep in a fierce battle was perhaps the best win since her comeback almost a year ago.  This will be Serena’s astounding 50th Major quarterfinal.  She is 36-13 in this round at the Slams, and 8-3 at the Australian Open.

For Pliskova, it’s her seventh Major quarter-final, and her third straight in Melbourne. However, she’s only 2-4 in previous Slam quarterfinals.  Karolina is 9-0 this season, and is coming off an impressive win over Two-Time Major Champion Garbine Muguruza, where she dropped just four games. With two great tennis minds in her coaching box, Rennae Stubbs and Conchita Martinez, Pliskova has been consistently building momentum over the past six months.  If she’s on in this match, she’s fully capable of defeating Serena.

One criticism many had of Serena’s performance on Monday was her slow movement when pulled side-to-side by Halep. The keys for Pliskova will be to stay inside the baseline, take time away from Serena, and to spread the court.  I expect a prolonged three-setter here, but I’m not betting against the will of Serena Williams.

Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Kei Nishikori (8)

Novak Djokovic (photo by chryslène caillaud, copyright @Sport Vision)

This should be completely smooth sailing for Djokovic. He’s 15-2 lifetime against Nishikori, and hasn’t lost since Kei’s upset in the 2014 US Open semi-finals. That’s 14 straight victories. Djokovic has reached the quarter-finals rather comfortably, only getting slight resistance from Next Gen players Denis Shapovalov and Daniil Medvedev.

To the contrary, Nishikori’s road to this point has been extremely turbulent, and he’s actually lucky to be at this stage. He’s survived three five-setters in four matches, twice coming back from two sets down.  Most recently against Pablo Carreno Busta, he was down 8-5 in the fifth set tiebreak (first-to-10 format) before a controversial call completely threw Carreno Busta off his game. That match just two days ago lasted for over five hours. In total, Nishikori has spent almost 14 hours on court, a full five hours more than Djokovic. This is a terrible matchup for Kei on a good day, so I can’t imagine he’ll be able to put up much of a fight on Wednesday.

Naomi Osaka (4) vs. Elina Svitolina (6)

Elina Svitolina (photo by chryslène caillaud, copyright @Sport Vision)

Is Svitolina finally ready to reach her first Major semi-final? She’ll have to take out the reigning US Open champion to do so. Svitolina is 0-3 to date in Slam quarterfinals. Her most haunting of those matches was Roland Garros in 2017. Elina was up a set and 5-1 over Simona Halep, but couldn’t close out the match despite having a match point.  One year ago at this tournament, she played terribly in her quarterfinal against an unproven player at that time, Elise Mertens, winning just four games and losing the second set 6-0. Svitolina looked shaky at times in both of her last two rounds here, including a bizarrely up-and-down match against Madison Keys. The scoreline in that one was 6-2, 1-6, 6-1.  Early in that third set, Elina won a game that included 11 deuces, and Keys unraveled thereafter. Madison was unable to sustain her big hitting to win two sets, but the more well-balanced game of Osaka may be more successful in taking advantage of Svitolina’s soft second serves.

And as we saw in Naomi’s last two matches against tricky opponents, Su-Wei Hsieh and Anastasija Sevastova, Osaka was able to make the necessary adjustments after dropping the first set. Svitolina is 3-2 lifetime against Osaka, and won both of their 2018 meetings, which were both on hard courts. Elina should draw confidence from her title at the 2018 WTA Finals. But I still give the edge to Osaka, who has proven herself to be more comfortable at this stage of a Major. Remember, Naomi is on an 11-match win streak at Grand Slam events, dating back to her US Open title.

Milos Raonic (16) vs. Lucas Pouille (28)

Lucas Pouille (photo by chryslène caillaud, copyright @Sport Vision)

I fear this men’s quarterfinal may be as straightforward as the other. Raonic is 3-0 against Pouille, having never dropped a set. They played in Melbourne three years ago, with Milos winning 6-1, 6-4, 6-4. The 28-year-old has served extremely well during this fortnight, and only lost one set thus far against heavy opposition by the names of Nick Kyrgios, Stan Wawrinka, and Sascha Zverev. This is his fourth Australian Open quarterfinal out of the past five years.

Pouille is coming off a few lackluster seasons, with this being his best result at a Major since he upset Rafael Nadal at the 2016 US Open. He arrived in Melbourne on a four-match losing streak. And prior to this year, Lucas had never won a match at the Australian Open in five appearances. His new coach, Amelie Mauresmo, is already paying dividends. Pouille outlasted a game 19-year-old from Australia, Alexie Popyrin, in five sets before upsetting the 11th seed, Borna Coric, on Monday. I just don’t see too much in Pouille’s skillset that can threaten Raonic when he is serving at this level. Milos should comfortably advance to his fourth Major semifinal, and first since 2016.

 

 

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Indian Wells Daily Preview: The Championship Matches in Men’s and Women’s Singles

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Iga Swiatek during Friday’s semifinals (twitter.com/BNPPARIBASOPEN)

It’s championship Sunday in tennis paradise, featuring rematches from recent finals in the desert.

In the women’s singles championship match, it’s a rematch from the 2022 final, as World No.1 Iga Swiatek faces a rejuvenated Maria Sakkari.  And the men’s singles championship match is a rematch from just a year ago, as Carlos Alcaraz takes on Daniil Medvedev.  Will Iga and Carlitos become multi-time champions of this event, or will Maria and Daniil win their first Indian Wells titles?


Iga Swiatek (1) vs. Maria Sakkari (9) – 11:00am on Stadium 1

This is yet another tournament during which Swiatek has gone completely unchallenged.  She has not dropped a set, and lost only 17 games through nine completed sets.  Iga is 7-2 in WTA 1000 finals, and an excellent 18-4 in tour finals overall.

By contrast, four out of Sakkari’s five matches this fortnight have gone three sets, including the last two against top Americans Coco Gauff and Emma Navarro.  Friday’s night’s semifinal against Gauff was a dramatic, extended affair, which went late into the evening due to a long rain delay in the desert.  Playing such a draining contest, and then coming back just 36 hours later to play at 11:00am in the morning, with be an extremely challenging turnaround for Maria.

After a subpar 2023 season, Sakkari is back to playing her best tennis, in the first tournament of the working relationship with her new coach, David Witt.  She is 1-2 in WTA 1000 finals, though she just won her first title at this level six months ago in Guadalajara.  But Maria is a meek 2-7 in tour finals, and as per Tennis Abstract, is just 3-7 against top 10 opposition within the last year.

Sakkari claimed their first two meetings, back in 2021 before Swiatek rose to the top of the sport.  The last three have all gone to Iga, with the most recent being the 2022 final at this same event.  All five of their matches have been straight-setters.  So while this is Maria’s favorite event, and her new coach has helped restore her confidence, Iga remains a clear favorite to win her second title in Indian Wells.


Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2)  – Not Before 2:00pm on Stadium 1

Despite playing in a location where “it never rains,” both the men’s and women’s semifinals suffered from severe rain delays, leading to the men’s semis finishing much later on Saturday than expected.  And both went three sets, so neither Alcaraz nor Medvedev will be fully fresh on Sunday.  Carlitos came back from a set down to hand Jannik Sinner his first defeat of the year, while Daniil came from a set down to oust American Tommy Paul.

In the championship here a year ago, Alcaraz comfortably prevailed against a depleted Medvedev, who had won 19 matches in the month leading up to that final.  They would go on to play three more times in 2023, with Carlitos taking three of four.  However, Daniil was able to overcome the Spaniard in the US Open semifinals, winning 6-3 in the fourth.  Overall Alcaraz is 3-2 against Medvedev.

Carlitos has not been the same player since losing the near four-hour final last summer in Cincinnati to Novak Djokovic.  But his victory over Sinner on Saturday felt significant, and it brought him to his first final since that one in Cincinnati. 

Alcaraz is 12-4 in ATP finals, and 4-1 at this level.  Medvedev is 20-17 in ATP finals, and 6-3 in Masters finals.  Hard courts easily remain Daniil’s strongest surface, though he made it painfully clear here a year ago that the slower-playing courts in Indian Wells are not to his liking.  And coming off an inspiring effort to defeat Sinner, the ATP’s best player of the last six months, Carlitos should be favored to become the first man to defend this title since Djokovic in 2016.


Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Indian Wells Daily Preview: Alcaraz and Sinner Reignite an Electrifying Rivalry in the Semifinals

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Jannik Sinner during Thursday’s quarterfinals (twitter.com/BNPPARIBASOPEN)

The men’s singles semifinals will be played on Saturday, as will the women’s doubles championship match.

18 months ago at the US Open, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner contested one of the best matches in recent memory.  After five hours and 15 minutes of scintillating rallies, Alcaraz would prevail 6-3 in the fifth, and go on to claim his first Major a few days later.  On Saturday, they meet for the eighth time at tour level, in the most anticipated semifinal of the fortnight.

The other men’s singles semifinal sees last year’s runner-up, Daniil Medvedev, take on the No.2-ranked American, Tommy Paul.

Plus, the women’s doubles final features two of the top three seeds.  At 11:00am local time, it will be Su-Wei Hsieh and Elise Mertens (1) vs. Storm Hunter and Katerina Siniakova (3).  At January’s Australian Open, Su-Wei and Mertens defeated Hunter and Siniakova in the semifinals, before going on to win the title.


Jannik Sinner (3) vs. Carlos Alcaraz (2) – Not Before 1:30pm on Stadium 1

Sinner leads their head-to-head 4-3, and 3-2 on hard courts.  They’ve met three times since the aforementioned 2022 US Open epic, including in the same round of this same event a year ago, when Alcaraz prevailed in straight sets.  Two weeks later in the semis of Miami, Jannik claimed a three-hour three-setter.  And six months ago in Beijing, the Italian won in straights.

These two phenomenal players have achieved contrasting results across the past six months.  Sinner is now 36-2 since last summer’s US Open, with four singles titles.  He also propelled Italy to the Davis Cup title.  Jannik has beaten Novak Djokovic three times during this span, and also achieved his first Major championship.  However, within that same time, Alcaraz has reached no tournament finals, and is 0-4 in his last four semifinals.

Jannik is an undefeated 16-0 in 2024, and has not dropped a set in Indian Wells.  Carlitos is 10-3 this season, and has taken eight consecutive sets after losing the first set he played here last week.  Based on recent form, Sinner is a considerable favorite to advance to his first championship match in the desert.  And in doing so, he would take the No.2 ranking away from Alcaraz, reaching a new career-high.


Tommy Paul (17) vs. Daniil Medvedev (4) – Last on Stadium 1

Medvedev is 13-2 on the year, and has now appeared in the semifinals in all three tournaments he’s played this season.  He dropped one set earlier in the event, to Sebastian Korda.  Daniil is vying for his second consecutive final in Indian Wells, and his first Masters 1000 final since surprisingly winning a clay court title almost a year ago in Rome.

This is a second semifinal at this level for Paul, after first achieving this feat last summer in Canada, where he upset Alcaraz in the quarterfinals.  The 26-year-old American had a poor ending to his 2023 season, going 6-8, but is now 14-4 in 2024 after reaching back-to-back finals last month in Dallas and Delray Beach.  Like Daniil, Tommy has lost just one set this fortnight, in the quarterfinals to Casper Ruud.

Paul is extremely quick around the court, and likes to use his forehand to end points.  Yet he has an 0-2 record against Medvedev, which includes a 6-2, 6-1 loss six months ago in Beijing.  While the crowd will be solidly behind Tommy, Daniil’s hard court abilities are well-established, and the fourth seed should be favored on Saturday.


Saturday’s full Order of Play is here.

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Novak Djokovic Announces Withdrawal From Miami Open

Novak Djokovic will not be playing the Miami Open after losing early in Indian Wells.

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(@BNPPARIBASOPEN - Twitter)

Novak Djokovic has announced that he has withdrawn from the second Masters 1000 of the season in Miami.

The news comes after the world number one lost in the third round of Indian Wells to lucky loser Luca Nardi.

Many people expected Djokovic to play in Miami given the Serb’s result in California.

However that appears not to be the case as Djokovic has announce on X that he has withdrawn from the tournament.

This means for the second time in three years Djokovic will enter the clay court season without winning a trophy.

The Serb will look to change that stat when he plays the Monte-Carlo Rolex Masters which starts on the 7th of April.

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