By Matthew Marolf
Seven-Time Champion Serena Williams and Six-Time Champion Novak Djokovic each have three players standing in their way of returning to the finals in Melbourne.
The seeds in the top half of the women’s draw have held to this stage, with the only exception being World No.1 Simona Halep. She was knocked out by Serena Williams on Monday night. On the men’s top half, the seeds have held in Djokovic’s section, but we have Milos Raonic and Lucas Pouille in place of Sascha Zverev and Dominic Thiem. Are we in for any upsets in Wednesday’s semi-finals? Let’s take a closer look at each matchup.
Karolina Pliskova (7) vs. Serena Williams (16)
This is a rematch from last September’s US Open quarter-finals, where Serena took out Pliskova in straight sets. That avenged a loss from two years prior at the same tournament, when Pliskova upset Serena in the US Open semi-finals. Serena prevailed in their only other meeting, at Stanford in 2014. Serena’s victory over Halep in a fierce battle was perhaps the best win since her comeback almost a year ago. This will be Serena’s astounding 50th Major quarterfinal. She is 36-13 in this round at the Slams, and 8-3 at the Australian Open.
For Pliskova, it’s her seventh Major quarter-final, and her third straight in Melbourne. However, she’s only 2-4 in previous Slam quarterfinals. Karolina is 9-0 this season, and is coming off an impressive win over Two-Time Major Champion Garbine Muguruza, where she dropped just four games. With two great tennis minds in her coaching box, Rennae Stubbs and Conchita Martinez, Pliskova has been consistently building momentum over the past six months. If she’s on in this match, she’s fully capable of defeating Serena.
One criticism many had of Serena’s performance on Monday was her slow movement when pulled side-to-side by Halep. The keys for Pliskova will be to stay inside the baseline, take time away from Serena, and to spread the court. I expect a prolonged three-setter here, but I’m not betting against the will of Serena Williams.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Kei Nishikori (8)
Novak Djokovic (photo by chryslène caillaud, copyright @Sport Vision)
This should be completely smooth sailing for Djokovic. He’s 15-2 lifetime against Nishikori, and hasn’t lost since Kei’s upset in the 2014 US Open semi-finals. That’s 14 straight victories. Djokovic has reached the quarter-finals rather comfortably, only getting slight resistance from Next Gen players Denis Shapovalov and Daniil Medvedev.
To the contrary, Nishikori’s road to this point has been extremely turbulent, and he’s actually lucky to be at this stage. He’s survived three five-setters in four matches, twice coming back from two sets down. Most recently against Pablo Carreno Busta, he was down 8-5 in the fifth set tiebreak (first-to-10 format) before a controversial call completely threw Carreno Busta off his game. That match just two days ago lasted for over five hours. In total, Nishikori has spent almost 14 hours on court, a full five hours more than Djokovic. This is a terrible matchup for Kei on a good day, so I can’t imagine he’ll be able to put up much of a fight on Wednesday.
Naomi Osaka (4) vs. Elina Svitolina (6)
Elina Svitolina (photo by chryslène caillaud, copyright @Sport Vision)
Is Svitolina finally ready to reach her first Major semi-final? She’ll have to take out the reigning US Open champion to do so. Svitolina is 0-3 to date in Slam quarterfinals. Her most haunting of those matches was Roland Garros in 2017. Elina was up a set and 5-1 over Simona Halep, but couldn’t close out the match despite having a match point. One year ago at this tournament, she played terribly in her quarterfinal against an unproven player at that time, Elise Mertens, winning just four games and losing the second set 6-0. Svitolina looked shaky at times in both of her last two rounds here, including a bizarrely up-and-down match against Madison Keys. The scoreline in that one was 6-2, 1-6, 6-1. Early in that third set, Elina won a game that included 11 deuces, and Keys unraveled thereafter. Madison was unable to sustain her big hitting to win two sets, but the more well-balanced game of Osaka may be more successful in taking advantage of Svitolina’s soft second serves.
And as we saw in Naomi’s last two matches against tricky opponents, Su-Wei Hsieh and Anastasija Sevastova, Osaka was able to make the necessary adjustments after dropping the first set. Svitolina is 3-2 lifetime against Osaka, and won both of their 2018 meetings, which were both on hard courts. Elina should draw confidence from her title at the 2018 WTA Finals. But I still give the edge to Osaka, who has proven herself to be more comfortable at this stage of a Major. Remember, Naomi is on an 11-match win streak at Grand Slam events, dating back to her US Open title.
Milos Raonic (16) vs. Lucas Pouille (28)
Lucas Pouille (photo by chryslène caillaud, copyright @Sport Vision)
I fear this men’s quarterfinal may be as straightforward as the other. Raonic is 3-0 against Pouille, having never dropped a set. They played in Melbourne three years ago, with Milos winning 6-1, 6-4, 6-4. The 28-year-old has served extremely well during this fortnight, and only lost one set thus far against heavy opposition by the names of Nick Kyrgios, Stan Wawrinka, and Sascha Zverev. This is his fourth Australian Open quarterfinal out of the past five years.
Pouille is coming off a few lackluster seasons, with this being his best result at a Major since he upset Rafael Nadal at the 2016 US Open. He arrived in Melbourne on a four-match losing streak. And prior to this year, Lucas had never won a match at the Australian Open in five appearances. His new coach, Amelie Mauresmo, is already paying dividends. Pouille outlasted a game 19-year-old from Australia, Alexie Popyrin, in five sets before upsetting the 11th seed, Borna Coric, on Monday. I just don’t see too much in Pouille’s skillset that can threaten Raonic when he is serving at this level. Milos should comfortably advance to his fourth Major semifinal, and first since 2016.