In the opening round, the lower seeds won all four matches. As the WTA reported, that’s the first time this has happened since the WTA Finals adopted the current round-robin format in 2003. In the red group, Sloane Stephens defeated Naomi Osaka, and Kiki Bertens came back from a set and a break down to take out Angelique Kerber. Both matches went three sets, giving Stephens and Osaka a slighter lead in the group than if they had won in straight sets. The winners and losers from Monday will face each other on Wednesday in Singapore.
Angelique Kerber vs. Naomi Osaka
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The first time these two met was at least year’s US Open, where Osaka dismantled Kerber in the first round, dropping just four games. Kerber quickly avenged that loss by twice defeating Osaka later that year in Asia. Angelique also won their only previous match this year, on her way to her third Major title at Wimbledon. It would seem Kerber has the clear momentum in this matchup, but I’m still puzzled by her sudden coaching split with Wim Fissette. An abrupt change to the coaching team like that must be off-putting for Kerber, especially when it happened right before the start of this tournament. And losing a set and a break lead to Bertens on Monday can’t be good for Angelique’s confidence either. But Kerber is a fighter, and on the other side of the net will be a player who I’m not convinced fully believes she belongs among the game’s elite just yet. Osaka’s recent rise has been impressive, yet must also be jarring for the recently-turned 21-year-old. In a tough match to call, I’ll give the slight edge to Kerber. The loser may be eliminated from the tournament depending upon the result of the next match.
Sloane Stephens vs. Kiki Bertens
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The winner here will have a commanding lead in the red group, but it won’t be an easy win for either, in a match between two of the strongest competitors on tour. Stephens is 6-2 in tour-level tournament finals, and is extremely dangerous when she gets beyond the first round of a Major. While she lost in the opening round in three out of the last six Majors, she’s made the quarterfinals or better the other three times. And Kiki Bertens has really come into her own in 2018, winning a total of 11 matches this year against top 10 opposition. That includes her last nine matches versus top 10 players, with Monday’s victory over Kerber being the latest. Stephens won the only previous time these two played, but that was over five years ago and on clay. This is the first year either has qualified for the WTA Finals, yet both are players well-suited for this format: playing significant matches against significant opponents. Regardless of the results on Wednesday, I expect Stephens and Bertens to be the players advancing out of this group.
