The Legend Versus The Newcomer: Five Facts About The US Open Women’s Final

The battle for the women’s title at the US Open will be contested between a legend of the sport and a player that has the potential to fill her shoes one day. Serena Williams will play Naomi Osaka in the final at Flushing Meadows. Williams will be playing in her 31st major final, compared to Osaka who will be making her debut at the age of 20. The clash of two different worlds is a mouth-watering prospect with plenty at stake for both players.

Here are five things to know about this year’s US Open women’s final.

1. It will be a historic match

World No.19 Osaka is the first Japanese woman to reach a grand slam final in the history of the sport. She achieved the accolade by dropping one set in six matches. That was to Aryna Sabalenka in the fourth round. Another 20-year-old rising star on the tour.

“It feels a little bit surreal.” Osaka commented about her US Open run on Thursday. “Even when I was a little kid, I always dreamed that I would play Serena in a final of a Grand Slam. Just the fact that it’s happening, I’m very happy about it.”

36-year-old Williams also has history in her sight. She has already become the third oldest woman to contest a grand slam final at the age of 36 years and 349 days. Only sister Venus and Martina Navratilova have contested a final at an older age. A win over Osaka would make her the oldest ever female grand slam champion.

“This is the beginning. I’m not there yet. I’m on the climb still.” Williams commented about her return to the tour following maternity leave.
“I just feel like my future bright, even though I’m not a spring chicken, but I still have a very, very bright future. That is super exciting for me.”

Victory would also place Williams level with Margaret Court for the most grand slam title of all time at 24.

2. The ranking scenarios

Besides a payment of $3,800,000, the winner will also receive 2000 ranking points. Something that will have as big impact on both players.

Osaka is already guaranteed her best-ever ranking when the standings are updated on Monday. As a consequence of her run to the final, she will rise to 12th in the world. Should Osaka prevail on Saturday, she will crack the top 10 and reach a high of seventh. The highest position a Japanese player has held since Kimiko Date back in 1996.

Meanwhile, Williams has secured her return back into the world’s top 20 for the first time since August 2017. She is currently set to rise to 16th, but will rise to 11th with the title. Overtaking sister Venus in the rankings. Williams was ranked as low as 491st in March due to her absence from the tour.

In the year-end rankings, Osaka’s best was 47th at the end of the 2016 season. Although that benchmark is likely to be broken later this year. In contrast, Williams has ended 15 seasons in the top 10, including five where she was the year-end No.1.

3. The first set is key

Both players have proven to be strong front-runners on the tour this season. Neither are yet to lose a match after winning the first set. Williams’ record currently stands at 16-0 and Osaka’s is 31-0.

In the history of the US Open, the last player to fight back from a set down to win the women’s title was Arantxa Sanchez Vicario back in 1994. On that occasion she outlasted Stefi Graf 1–6, 7–6(7–3), 6–4.

Should the match go the full distance, Williams’ experience makes her the clear favourite. She has won 154 out of 213 matches that have gone to three sets. Meanwhile, rising star Osaka has won 14 out of 27 played. In 2018 only, they have both won three out of four three-sets matches they have played.

4. Naomi’s defensive play

The hype surrounding Osaka’s breakthrough run has done little to impede her game. While some might have expected her to falter with nerves, she has proven critics wrong. Illustrated by the 13 break points she saved against Madison Keys in the semifinals.

In total the world No.19 has saved 86% of the break points she has faced (24/28) and won 53% of her return games. To put that into perspective, her percentage for return games won during 2018 has been only 36.1%.

As for Williams, she has saved 17 out of the 23 break points faced so far in the tournament. What it perhaps the most interesting figure for Williams was that the average ranking of her opponent has been 43. That is 26 places higher than her Osaka’s average (69).

5. How the players compare so far in the tournament

NOTE: Based on matches played between the first round and semi-finals at the 2018 US Open. Data via flashscore.com.

The women’s final will get underway at 16:00 local time (21:00 GMT).