The date of August 16, 2018 could be one that remains in the history of tennis forever. This will not be due to some exceptional achievement by the likes of Rogers Federer or Rafael Nadal. In fact, the date will be when the future of the Davis Cup will be decided. The oldest and most prestigious team tournament in men’s tennis. Delegates from national tennis federations around the world will gather in Orlando (United States) for the annual AGM meeting of the International Tennis Federation (ITF). Voters have two options. To back the new initiative supported by Davis Haggerty or oppose it.
If the majority vote yes, what will change? For those who had not followed the debate in recent months, the ITF has issued a statement in which clearly outlines what is at stake in Florida. If the reform passes, from 2019 the structure of the Davis Cup will undergo the following changes :
- The establishment of a final in the neutral field in a European country
- The establishment of the qualifications for 24 teams in February with tie at home and away
- The winners of the qualifications will enter the final, the losers will end up in the zonal groups
- The final will involve 18 teams: 12 who have qualified, four semi-finalists of the previous year and two wild cards. It will consist of 6 groups, followed by quarter-finals, semi-finals and the final
- The 6 winners of the groups plus the two best second in terms of set and game won will enter the quarterfinals
- The 2 teams classified 17st and 18th will be relegated to the zonal groups while the 12 classified between the fifth and sixteenth position will return to the qualifications
- Ties played in the final will consist of two singles and a doubles, all played in one day
- Ties played in Zonal groups 1 and 2 will consist of 4 singles and a doubles, played in two days
- The singles and doubles matches at all levels will be the best-of-three sets, with tie-breaks also in the decisive set
In short, it is a revolution for a competition with over a century of history: no more challenges at home and away when it counts, no more marathon five-set matches. Of course the Davis Cup may not be the same any more. Behind this radical structural reform, there is a partnership project between the ITF and the Kosmos investment group, chaired by footballer Gerard Piqué. A 25-year deal worth 3 billion dollars, of which 23 million would go to form the annual prize money to be divided between teams (⅔) and federations (⅓). The promise of an endorsement from Larry Ellison, founder of Oracle and patron of the Indian Wells tournament, has come to reinforce an already considerable firepower. Perhaps with the prospect of hosting the competition in Indian Wells after the first two editions on European soil.
VOTING MODES
But how many chances are there for the reform to pass? To answer this question, we need to understand how the individual representatives of the federations will vote. Concerning the vote about the Davis Cup, not everyone will have the same weight . The countries are divided into 6 categories according to the number of preferences they can express.
- 5 countries with 12 votes for a total of 60 (countries hosting Slams plus Germany)
- 14 countries with 9 votes for a total of 126 (Argentina, Italy, Spain, Canada, Russia among others)
- 7 countries with 7 votes for a total of 49 (Croatia and Serbia among others)
- 14 countries with 5 votes for a total of 70 (Austria, Belgium and Poland among others)
- 25 countries with 3 votes for a total of 75
- 82 countries with 1 vote for a total of 82
Calculator in hand and taking into account a full turnout, the preferences should therefore be about 460. Considering that the reform requires two thirds of the preferences, the magic threshold for President Haggerty is about 300 votes.
Besides the US, it will count as much to have the support of smaller countries. Calculating the blocks of countries with either one or three votes, all those added up could be worth half the votes needed to bring the reform home. To them the money promised by external sponsors should be very appealing, but Haggerty certainly cannot afford an uprising from the bigger federations. With their weight, the delegates can completely overturn the direction of the vote. And for some of them the desire to keep the traditional Davis format intact could count more than the promises of lavish economic returns.
After a first analysis, it seems difficult to hypothesize the trend of the vote. The first three weigh (235 votes), roughly the same as the last three (227 votes). Some federations have, however, officially or otherwise been exposed to the issue of reform. Meanwhile, others have not publicly declared their decision. .
Ubitennis has turned to journalists from around the world, who were very happy to provide us with information to make a prediction before the vote. On Wednesday we will give a full account of their views in the second part of this article.
NOTE: Article originally written in Italian by Valerio Vignoli.
