The WTA Premier Mandatory event this week in Madrid has a loaded field, featuring 28 of the top 29 players in the world. The draw for the ATP Masters 1,000 event is almost just as packed, featuring 24 of the 30 top-ranked players. With almost all the top players present, and the French Open just three weeks away, this week in Madrid may do a lot to shape the upcoming fortnight at Roland Garros.
Simona Halep vs. Elise Mertens
This is a dangerous second round match for the women’s number one against one of the hottest players on tour. Mertens is now at a career-high ranking of number sixteen, but she was just short of that ranking when the seedings were finalized for this tournament, making her the highest-ranked unseeded player in the draw. Elise is currently on a 13-match winning streak, which includes consecutive titles on clay in Lugano and Rabat. The Belgian already has three titles in 2018, and made her first major semifinal earlier this year in Melbourne. Mertens is number six in the Race to Singapore year-to-date rankings. On the other side of the net, Halep has a ton of points to defend over the next month as she tries to hold onto her number one ranking. She’s the defending champion in Madrid, and made the final in both Rome and Paris last year. Simona hasn’t won a title since the very first week of 2018, and did not arrive in Madrid with much momentum. She was upset in Miami by Agnieszka Radwanska, and in Stuttgart by CoCo Vandeweghe. This will be the first time these two players face each other. A Mertens upset would not be too shocking.
Pablo Carreno Busta vs. Borna Coric
Both players are coming off some nice results of late. Carreno Busta made the semifinals in all of his last three tournaments: Miami, Barcelona, and Estoril. Coric made the semis in Indian Wells, the quarters in Miami, and lost a tight second round match to Novak Djokovic in Monte Carlo. Pablo and Borna have split their two previous meetings, both on hard courts. The most recent one was earlier this year in Doha, where Coric prevailed 10-8 in a final set tiebreak, saving three match points in that tiebreaker. That’s the kind of match that can have a carryover effect into future matches between the same players. I also wonder if Carreno Busta will be motivated or instead overwhelmed by playing in his home country’s biggest tournament. Coric has some nice memories in Madrid: he advanced to the quarterfinals just last year, which included a win over world number one Andy Murray. I give Coric the slight edge in what should be a highly competitive battle.
