We’re down to eight players remaining in both the men’s and women’s draws. In the men’s top half, which plays on Tuesday, are we headed for a rematch of last year’s epic semifinal between Rafael Nadal and Grigor Dimitrov? Meanwhile, the two top seeds in the women’s bottom half of the draw are favored to set up a blockbuster semifinal showdown. But first, they all have to win on Tuesday.
Rafael Nadal vs. Marin Cilic
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Nadal has won the past five matches against Cilic, with Marin’s only victory coming over eight years ago. Most recently, Rafa won in two tight sets in the semifinals of the Shanghai Masters. Nadal’s level of play has been very high at this tournament. Diego Schwartzman played magnificently against Nadal on Sunday in an almost four-hour match, which was the first true test Nadal faced so far in Melbourne, but Diego still couldn’t push Rafa to a fifth set. Cilic’s form has been much shakier, as he complicated his match on Sunday against Pablo Carreno Busta by giving away multiple leads. Nadal is the heavy favorite to return to the Australian Open semifinals.
Caroline Wozniacki vs. Carla Suarez Navarro
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Both of these players climbed back out of deep holes last week to make it to this quarterfinal. Wozniacki saved match points in overcoming a 5-1 third set deficit in her second round. On Sunday, Suarez Navarro came back from a set and two breaks down to outlast a jittery Anett Konteveit 8-6 in the third. Wozniacki and Suarez Navarro are both more defensive players, but Wozniacki upped her offense in her fourth round victory. In that match against Magdalena Rybarikova, she hit 25 winners and dropped just three games. It appears Caroline has worked her way into top form as the tournament has progressed. This is now the sixth major quarterfinal for Carla, and her third in Australia, but she’s 0-5 in those quarterfinals. After being a perennial top 20 player for many years, the Spaniard’s ranking dipped in 2017 to the point where she is unseeded here. In October, a wrist injury ended her season a bit prematurely. Wozniacki holds a 5-2 career edge over Suarez Navarro, with Carla’s only two victories coming on clay. Caroline should comfortably advance to her first Australian Open semifinal since 2011.
Grigor Dimitrov vs. Kyle Edmund
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Dimitrov and Edmund have survived some tough, long matches to get to this point. After playing subpar tennis through his first three matches, Dimitrov found his top gear in taking out Nick Kyrgios in an extremely tight match. Meanwhile, after playing two five-setters in the first week, Edmund still had enough left in his reserves to defeat Andreas Seppi in four sets to make his first major quarterfinal. Dimitrov has proven many doubters wrong (including myself) by returning to the latter stages of this tournament. It’s been nice to see the way he’s fought to follow-up on his strong 2017 results. Grigor is 2-0 lifetime against Edmund, including a win just a few weeks ago in the Brisbane quarterfinals. Both of their matches have been close and gone to a final set. Let’s hope this quarterfinal is close as well, which I expect Dimitrov to win.
Elina Svitolina vs. Elise Mertens
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Can Svitolina finally get to her first major semifinal? She’s been the WTA’s best player outside of the majors over the past year, but is yet to carry that success over to a Grand Slam event. Elina is a two-time Roland Garros quarterfinalist, and she gave away a huge lead in last year’s French Open quarterfinals to Simona Halep. Still, she’ll be a heavy favorite to prevail against the unseeded Mertens, who is a surprise first-time major quarterfinalist. But the 22-year-old Belgian is no pushover, and has a lot of momentum on her side. Both players already have a title in 2018, with Svitolina winning in Brisbane, while Mertens won in Hobart. Obviously both are in good form: Svitolina lost just three games in her fourth round match, and Mertens is yet to drop a set in Melbourne. Svitolina will walk to the court knowing she’s expected to win this match, which would be the biggest win of her career to date. I’m curious to see how she reacts to that pressure.
