When Jannik Sinner was ousted by Jakub Mensik in the quarterfinals of Doha back in February, the skeptics were beginning to wonder if the 24-year-old was losing some of his quiet swagger and self conviction. Sinner had commenced his 2026 campaign with a five set defeat at the hands of the incomparable Novak Djokovic in the semifinals of the Australian Open, failing to convert on 16 of his 18 break point opportunities.
Not reaching the final in his first two tournament appearances of this season was a blow to Sinner’s deep pride and a shock to his legions of devoted followers out there among the public.
But the early stages of 2026 seem like ancient history now as Sinner has stamped his authority on the game with almost regal self assurance. His latest victory on the red clay of Rome at the Italian Open was his fifth straight victory at a Masters 1000 event this season and his sixth altogether. No one had ever won six in a row before. On top of that, Sinner’s 6-4, 6-4 final round win over the tenacious Casper Ruud was his 34th consecutive match win in Master’s 1000s, which is another record. He also established himself as only the second player to collect all nine Masters 1000 tournaments for a highly coveted Career Golden Masters, joining Djokovic in that elite category. Moreover, Sinner has secured 29 consecutive match wins altogether on tour during this scintillating stretch. And he established himself as the first Italian to seal the men’s crown in Rome since Adriano Panatta fifty years ago.
Add it all up, and there can be only one indisputable conclusion: Jannik Sinner is the overwhelming favorite to garner the only major title he has not yet captured when he soon starts his quest to rule at Roland Garros. To say that he is destined to be victorious in Paris at the French Open might be a bit hyperbolic, but Sinner belongs on the border of that description. Across the rest of the clay court circuit, Sinner had seemed close to invincible. In Rome he struggled in the latter stages of the tournament, but the fact remains that he took his six matches at the cost of only one set, and despite being at his zenith he was still better than anyone else.
In the final against Ruud, Sinner found himself in immediate difficulty against the cagey Norwegian. Ruud held at love in the opening game of the contest, prevailing in a 22 strike exchange for 30-0, releasing an ace down the T on the following point and then unleashing a backhand winner behind Sinner to get the easy hold. Sinner did not make a first serve in the second game and was broken at 15 on a nervous errant forehand long off a short miss hit ball from his adversary.
Improbably, Sinner trailed 2-0 after losing eight out of nine points in an inauspicious start. But when Ruud lost control of a sliced backhand crosscourt at 15-30 in the third game, Sinner pounced, breaking at 15 with a signature backhand winner down the line. Despite missing three out of five first serves in the the fourth game, Sinner made it to 2-2 with a service winner. And yet, Ruud remained resolute. He went to 40-0 in the fifth game, lost the next two points, but still held on at 30 as Sinner sent a two-hander wide down the line.
Sinner, however, was unswayed. He poured in four out of five first serves in a comfortable hold for 3-3. But the Italian missed out on a significant opening in the seventh game. At 0-30, his forehand drop shot caught the net tape and refused to go over. Ruud eventually held after two deuces with an impeccably struck forehand crosscourt winner. To 4-3 he went, but Sinner was gradually getting better, finding his range off the ground and hitting penetrating shots into the corners with increasing frequency and confidence. A service winner out wide enabled Sinner to hold at 30 to reach 4-4.
Now Sinner went purposefully to work. After Ruud double faulted to knot the score of the ninth game at 15-15, the Italian produced a perfect backhand crosscourt drop shot winner and then a forehand drop shot winner to make it 15-40. Ruud took the next point but Sinner was not to be denied. He broke at 30 with another drop shot forcing Ruud into a backhand error. Serving for the set, Sinner held ruthlessly at love, producing two forehand winners and an overhead into the clear as well.
Sinner surged to 2-0 in the second set with little hesitancy, taking eight of eleven points. He had won five games in a row, and now he threatened to break the match wide open. Ruud trailed 0-30 in the third game. He had lost 18 of 23 points to land in that dark territory. But he willed his way through that crucial game, saving a break point with a forehand winner, holding on steadfastly for 1-2. Unperturbed, Sinner moved to 3-1 by holding at 15 with an immaculate forehand drop shot winner.
Two games later, Sinner was tested by a determined opponent. But, serving at 30-30, he opened up the court with a wide serve and released a forehand winner behind Ruud. Ruud’s lob off the backhand landed long on the next point, and so Sinner was closing in on a milestone with a 4-2 lead. After Ruud stood his ground in the seventh game with a professional hold, Sinner faced his first break point of the match since his opening service game. True to his stature and stability, Sinner connected with a first serve, got the short return he wanted, and drove a forehand down the line for an outright and timely winner. He quickly collected the next two points to arrive at 5-3.
Ruud refused to surrender and held on again in the ninth game, but Sinner closed out the account stylishly with a love hold, commencing that game with a backhand winner up the line, finishing it all off with a forehand inside out winner. The match was a far cry from Sinner’s 6-0, 6-1 obliteration of Ruud a year ago in the Rome quarterfinals. But Sinner remained decidedly superior and has still not lost a set to Ruud in five career head to head meetings.
Sinner will undoubtedly remember his semifinal against Daniil Medvedev most vividly whenever he reflects on his latest tournament win— the 29th of his young career. The Italian was almost letter perfect in the early stages, winning 16 of 18 points on his way to 4-0, sealing the opening set 6-2.
But the color of this contest swiftly changed. Medvedev alertly sensed that Sinner was having issues with his breathing and, in turn, the Italian’s backcourt power and mobility were diminishing. Medvedev turned judiciously to the drop shot and attacked intelligently as well. He also began gaining the upper hand in the rallies with some impressive groundstroke velocity of his own. He built a 3-0 lead in the second set with three break points for 4-0 before Sinner rallied to 3-3. Sinner was unmistakably hindered by some kind of ailment and was not helped by the slower and increasingly damp conditions. Sinner— despite being regularly at Medvedev’s mercy from the baseline—nearly made it to a tie-break. He erased two set points against him at 5-6 but Medvedev came through on the third one, chasing down a decent drop shot from the Italian and sending a backhand crosscourt out of reach for a satisfying and spectacular set concluding winner.
Early in the final set, however, Sinner seemed to find a second wind. Medvedev, meanwhile, could not sustain his unerring ways. Sinner broke at 1-1 in the third set. He won the first point of that third game with a tremendous backhand down the line winner and dropped only one point in moving to 2-1. Serving in the fourth game at 40-30, Sinner seemed beaten by a Medvedev drop volley. But he ran it down with remarkable alacrity and rolled a forehand passing shot for a dazzling crosscourt winner. 3-1 for Sinner.
The top seed had a break point in the following game but Medvedev saved it with a service winner and held on gamely. Now Sinner brought out the trainer who rubbed his right leg. He held on for 4-2 and had a break point for 5-2 but, once more, Medvedev battled out of it and got to game point before rain postponed play until Saturday.
When the match resumed,Medvedev promptly served an ace to close Sinner’s lead to 4-3. But now the sun was shining and Sinner was physically a lot better off. He served a great game in advancing to 5-3 at love. Medvedev managed to hold in the ninth game from 15-40, double match point down with some clutch serving, but Sinner wrapped up his victory with a hold at 30 on a trademark backhand crosscourt winner, prevailing 6-2, 5-7, 6-4. That was the toughest challenge Sinner has faced ever since he started his 2026 winning streak at Indian Wells.
Now we turn our attention to Roland Garros. The view here is that the only way Sinner can lose is if he has serious physical or perhaps internal issues reminiscent of what he experienced against Medvedev in Rome. Someone will need to push Sinner into a debilitating four hour showdown and perhaps then he would falter and lose to a lesser opponent. Otherwise, he is going to march through that Roland Garros draw.
In 2024, Sinner was ahead of Carlos Alcaraz two sets to one in the semifinals before the Spaniard turned the tables on him. Last year, Sinner had triple match point in the fourth set of his epic, final round encounter with Alcaraz in Paris before eventually bowing out gallantly in a fifth set tie-break. This time around, he towers above the field. The man with the second best chance to succeed at the French Open is Sascha Zverev. Zverev had been on an immensely consistent run from Indian Wells through Madrid. Squandering four match points against Luciano Darderi in the round of 16 at Rome was inexcusable, but Zverev will be well prepared for Roland Garros and will be seeded second. He won’t have to face Sinner prior to the final. But the fact remains that Zverev is still in search of his first major title and has lost three Grand Slam tournament finals across his career, including a five set duel with Alcaraz in 2024.
Right behind Zverev will be none other than Djokovic. He has only played ten matches all year long. In Rome he lost in the second round to Dino Prizmic 2-6, 6-2, 6-4 after getting sick a few times in the second set. That was his only clay court match en route to Roland Garros. But, on the flip side, this is a man who primes almost entirely these days for the majors. His last triumph at a major was the U.S. Open in 2023 where he claimed his 24th Grand Slam singles title, but ever since Djokovic has remained a pillar of reliability. In his last nine majors he has missed the quarterfinal cut only once while reaching two finals and five semifinals. In fact, he was in the penultimate round of all four majors last year and was runner-up to Alcaraz this season in Melbourne.
It is hard to imagine anyone else winning the title at Roland Garros with the possible exception of Ruud. Year in and year out, he has been one of the greatest of all clay court players in the game of tennis. In 2022 he was runner-up to Nadal when the Spaniard won his 14th French Open and 22nd major title. The next year, Ruud was back in the final, losing to Djokovic. Outside of Sinner, Ruud is a serious threat to beat anyone in the draw at Roland Garros, but he may have to settle for a semifinal or possibly a final round showing.
In the end, it all comes back to Jannik Sinner. This is simultaneously his tournament to win and his tournament to lose.
