Thursday’s ATP Beijing slate includes 5 matches. I break down betting odds, recent player form, and overall trends for 4 of them.
Jannik Sinner vs. Marin Cilic. Sinner leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Sinner -5000, Cilic +1400. Sinner -6.5 games. Over/Under 17.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Sinner -5000, Cilic +1800.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Sinner -3500, Cilic +1650.
Recent form:
- Sinner: Sinner reached the final of the US Open and Cincinnati, losing to Carlos Alcaraz in both finals.
- Cilic: Cilic lost in straights to Alexander Bublik in Round 1 of the US Open, and has since lost in 3 sets to ATP #110 Basavareddy in the Round of 32 at the Hangzhou Open.
2025 ATP Tour Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Sinner: 22-20 ATS total, failing to cover in each of his last 2 matches.
- Cilic: 8-7 ATS total, failing to cover in each of his last 3 matches.
What This Means:
Sinner is rightfully a massive favorite in this one and is heavily expected to win. The interest in this matchup tonight is about the games spread. In their one previous meeting, Cilic lost by 3 games. Cilic made a great run at Wimbledon, but was ultimately not competitive against Bublik at the US Open and suffered a rough loss for his standards against Basavareddy after. Cilic only made 48% first serves in that match for 10 aces and 9 double faults. On top of that, Tennis Abstract lists Beijing as one of the slowest hard courts on tour.
Alexandre Muller vs. Karen Khachanov. Khachanov leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Khachanov -450, Muller +350. Khachanov -4 games. Over/Under 21.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Khachanov -400, Muller +300.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Khachanov -430, Muller +310.
Recent form:
- Khachanov: Khachanov at the US Open beat Basavareddy and lost Round 2 to Majchrzak. At Cincinnati he beat Royer and Brooksby and lost to Zverev.
- Muller: Muller at the US Open lost in 4 sets in Round 1 to Tsitsipas. Before that, he played Winston Salem, where he beat Blanch and lost to Perricard.
2025 ATP Tour Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Khachanov: 27-22 ATS total, including covering in 10 of his last 13 matches.
- Muller: 20-20 ATS total, including covering in 3 of his last 12 matches.
What It Means:
The against the spread numbers in this one say a lot. One guy has covered 10/13 on Tour, and the other has covered 3/12. Khachanov really has had a great season. I’d say the 5-set loss to Majchrzak at the US Open was a bit uncharacteristic. Something to note is that these are slower hard courts, which is a detail that Muller may benefit from.
Benjamin Bonzi vs. Fabian Marozsan. Marozsan leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Marozsan -150, Bonzi +125. Marozsan -2 games. Over/Under 22.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Marozsan -163, Bonzi +130.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Marozsan -160, Bonzi +130.
Recent form:
- Bonzi: His last event was the US Open, where he beat Medvedev and Giron to reach the 3rd round. He lost to Rinderknech in 4 sets. Before that, he won 3 matches at Cincinnati.
- Marozsan: His last event was the US Open, where he lost first round to Blanchet. Before that, he beat ATP #130 Colton Smith in 3 sets at Cincinnati before losing in the next round to Tsitsipas.
2025 ATP Tour Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Bonzi: 15-18 ATS total, but has covered in 5 of his last 7 matches.
- Marozsan: 22-19 ATS total, but has failed to cover in 3 of his last 4 matches.
What It Means:
A little surprised by the lines here by the books. Bonzi has the clear better form. Marozsan is the more established player and leads the H2H, but his recent form really is poor. Neither guy has played in a month, so maybe the take is that form really doesn’t matter much in this case.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs. Camilo Ugo Carabelli. H2H is 0-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Davidovich -650, Carabelli +450. Davidovich -5.5 games. Over/Under 19.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Davidovich -700, Carabelli +450.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Davidovich -700, Carabelli +480.
Recent form:
- Davidovich: His last event was the US Open, where he beat Shevchenko in Round 1 and then lost to Rinderknech after. At his first match in Cincinnati, he retired against Fonseca.
- Carabelli: Carabelli played the Hangzhou Open last week, where he lost in his first match in straight sets to Hijikata. Before that, he lost first round at the US Open to Etcheverry.
2025 ATP Tour Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Davidovich: 36-19 ATS total, but has only covered in 1 of his last 4 matches.
- Carabelli: 27-16 ATS total, but has only covered in 2 of his last 5 matches.
What It Means:
Carabelli really has no form. The one thing he has going for him in this matchup is that it is a slower hard court. That helps Carabelli, but it doesn’t hurt Davidovich. Davidovich can play good tennis on a wide range of court speeds. His form since Washington hasn’t been great either, but he’s still managed to pick up wins here and there.
None of the above information is betting advice, it is purely just information for the reader to make their own decisions based off of.
