Wednesday’s ATP Chengdu slate includes 8 matches. I break down betting odds, recent player form, and overall trends for 4 of the most notable matches.
ATP Chengdu Open
Note: All cover data is ATP main draw results only.
Bernard Tomic vs. Nikoloz Basilashvili. H2H: 0-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Basilashvili -140, Tomic +115. Basilashvili -1.5 games. Over/Under 22.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Basilashvili -150, Tomic +110
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Basilashvili -138, Tomic +110
Recent form:
- Tomic: Beat #95 Schoolkate 6-4 6-4 in qualifying for this event. Won 3 matches (Against #844, #279, #233) at Shanghai Challenger in early September. Lost to World #230 Uchiyama.
- Basilashvili: Beat World #189 in 3 sets in qualifying for this event. Lost to World #179 in first match in previous tournament at Guangzhou Challenger.
2025 Cover Tendencies
- Tomic: 8-5 ATS in tracked matches
- Basilashvili: 22-13 ATS including covering 2 of his last 3 ATS in tracked matches
What It Means:
Tomic has more matches under his belt as of late and has a better quality win leading into this match. Basilashvili is a more well established player with a higher ceiling when on his game which is why I believe he’s still priced as the favorite.
Marcos Giron vs. Ethan Quinn. Giron leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Giron -145, Quinn +120. Giron -1.5 games. Over/Under 22.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Giron -125, Quinn +100
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Giron -120, Quinn -102
Recent form:
- Giron: Last tournament was the US Open, where Giron beat World #82 Navone and lost to World #45 Bonzi. Giron was coming off of 5 straight losses before that win.
- Quinn: Last tournament was the US Open, where Quinn lost first round to World #155 Kym.
2025 Cover Tendencies:
- Giron: 15-21 ATS including covering 1 of his last 6 ATS in tracked matches
- Quinn: 26-20 ATS including covering 3 of his last 5 ATS in tracked matches
What It Means:
Both players are coming in not having played much tennis after short runs at the US Open. Giron notably leads this H2H 1-0 and was able to get a win at the US Open while Quinn did not.
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Lloyd Harris. H2H is 0-0
- Betting odds (Bovada): Harris -130, Tabilo +110. Lloyd Harris -0.5 games. Over/Under 24.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Harris -200, Tabilo +150
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Harris -180, Tabilo +142
Recent form:
- Tabilo: Won 4 matches at his last event at the Guangzhou Challenger (Against #318, #228, #109, #103) and then lost to World #72 J.M. Cerundolo. Beat World #555 6-4 6-4 at this event in qualifying.
- Harris: Beat World #41 Baez and lost to World #4 Fritz at the US Open. Beat World #129 Svajda 6-4 (5)6-7 6-2 in qualifying at this event.
2025 Cover Tendencies:
- Harris: 11-7 ATS including covering 6 of his last 6 ATS in tracked matches
- Tabilo: 6-14 ATS including covering 1 of his last 8 ATS in tracked matches
What It Means:
Tabilo has more matches under his belt as of late, but many of them against players of low world ranking. Harris has played less matches but sturdier opposition. Harris’s win over Baez is the best win for either player as of late, and it’s why I believe he is priced as the favorite.
Quentin Halys vs. Christopher O’Connell. O’Connell leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): O’Connell -120, Halys +100. O’Connell -0.5 games. Over/Under 23 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): O’Connell -110, Halys -110
- Betting odds (FanDuel): O’Connell -122, Halys +100
Recent form:
- Halys: Halys has shockingly lost his last 8 matches on the ATP Tour. He most recently lost to World #87 Goffin at the US Open and World #313 Glinka at the Cassis Challenger.
- O’Connell: O’Connell is coming off of a first round exit at the US Open to World #8 De Minaur and a week where he won 3 matches (Against #555, #178, and #281) at the Guangzhou Challenger.
2025 Cover Tendencies:
- Halys: 18-17 ATS including covering 1 of his last 7 in tracked matches
- O’Connell: 17-18 ATS including covering 5 of his last 5 in tracked matches
What It Means:
It’s pretty clear that Halys is getting a lot of credit from the sportsbooks even with losing his last 8 professional level matches. The thinking must be that losing streaks have to end at some point. For O’Connell, he’s in standard form winning the matches he should.
None of the above information is betting advice, it is purely just information for the reader to make their own decisions based off of.
