Three of today’s semifinalists are making their second appearance at this stage of a Slam.
After years of failing to breakthrough at a Major, Sascha Zverev is into his second consecutive semifinal. Pablo Carreno Busta benefited from the fourth round default of Novak Djokovic, but has fully earned his spot, especially after a five-set win over Denis Shapovalov. Daniil Medvedev was a semifinalist here a year ago, when he went from villain to fan favorite within a fortnight. And he most accomplished of today’s players is Dominic Thiem, who is looking to reach his fourth Major final, and his first without Rafael Nadal or Novak Djokovic as his opponent.
Sascha Zverev (5) vs. Pablo Carreno Busta (20)
Their only previous meeting was also on an American hard court, in the 2018 Miami semifinals, which Zverev claimed in straight sets. Sascha will be the favorite to prevail again today, with more offensive weapons at his disposal than Carreno Busta. However, Zverev often doesn’t utilize those weapons to their full potential. We saw him regress to a more defensive approach for the first set against Borna Coric on Tuesday, paired with some sloppy errors. Pablo plays a similar style to Coric, which is a style that has frustrated Zverev in the past. And Sascha’s double faulting remains a glitch that can recur at anytime.
Carreno Busta’s competitive spirit was on full display in the quarterfinals, recovering from a 6-0 fourth set loss to win in five. Fortunately for Pablo, he’s had a full two days to recover after that exhausting, late night match. The pressure of reaching what would be a first Major final for either will weigh on both. So while Zverev remains a favorite, there’s a feeling of unpredictability in this match, with two unproven commodities at this stage of a unique, crowd-less Grand Slam event.
Dominic Thiem (2) vs. Daniil Medvedev (3)
The winner of this match will go into the final on Sunday as a considerable favorite, amplifying the importance of this semifinal. Thiem leads their head-to-head 2-1, though they’ve split their two hard court meetings. Dominic was victorious 7-6 in the third two years ago in St. Petersburg, but Daniil avenged that loss with a comprehensive victory last summer in Canada. That was the first tournament in Medvedev’s amazing hard court run last summer, part of a span where Daniil went 25-2, with three titles. His only two losses during that time were to Rafael Nadal. While an ill Thiem went out in the first round a year ago, he subsequently went on a 13-1 tear of his own on indoor hard courts. Dominic would then be a finalist at both the ATP Finals as well as the most recent Major in Melbourne.
Outside of Novak Djokovic, Thiem and Medvedev have been the two best hard court players of the past 12 months. Both men have advanced to this semifinal most comfortably: Medvedev has not dropped a set, with Thiem dropping only one. But Daniil’s form has been the more impressive of the two. And the Russian has achieved more success on Arthur Ashe Stadium. Medvedev’s variety and smarts will be crucial, and enable him to use Thiem’s deep return position against him. After an exhausting affair, I expect to see Medvedev in the championship match for the second straight year.
Seven things to know about the US Open semi-finalist
- It is the first time since 2015 that three top-five seeds have reached the last four – Thiem (2), Medvedev (3) and Zverev (5).
- Zverev is bidding to become the first German man to reach a Grand Slam final since Rainer Schuettler at the 2003 US Open. He is already the first man from his country to reach a US Open semi since Boris Becker back in 1995.
- Carreno Busta is aiming to be the third Spanish man to reach a Grand Slam final over the past 15 years after Rafael Nadal and David Ferrer, who is now coaching Zverev.
- Should Carreno Busta win, he would become the second lowest-ranked US Open finalist since the birth of the ATP ranking system back in 1973.
- Medvedev is yet to drop a set in the tournament. Should he continue to do so en route to the title he would become the first player in history to do so.
- Thiem is the first ever Austrian semi-finalist at the US Open.
- Whoever wins between Thiem and Medvedev will record their 118th match win since 2018.
