Thursday’s ATP Chengdu slate includes 8 matches. I break down betting odds, recent player form, and overall trends for 4 of the most notable matches.
ATP Chengdu Open
Note: All cover data is ATP main draw results only.
Filip Misolic vs. Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard. Misolic leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Perricard -210, Misolic +170. Perricard -2.5 games. Over/Under 23.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Perricard -225, Misolic +175.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Perricard -210, Misolic +174.
Recent form:
- Perricard: Last event was the US Open where Perricard lost to ATP #9 Lorenzo Musetti in 4 sets. Before that, Perricard won 3 matches at Winston Salem and eventually lost to ATP #83 Van De Zandschulp.
- Misolic: Last event was Winston Salem where Misolic lost to ATP #69 Kovacevic in straight sets.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Perricard: 11-19 ATS total including covering 2 of his last 7 matches
- Misolic: 11-12 ATS total including covering 2 of his last 10 matches
What It Means:
Perricard showed some signs of life at Winston Salem after a stretch where he was struggling to win any matches at all. He’s the higher ceiling and higher ranked player which is why I believe he’s priced as a moderate favorite.
Alexander Shevchenko vs. Gael Monfils. Shevchenko leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Monfils -200, Shevchenko +165. Monfils -3 games. Over/Under 22.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Monfils -225, Shevchenko +175.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Monfils -210, Shevchenko +172.
Recent form:
- Shevchenko: Shevchenko most recently got a Davis Cup singles win against ATP #374 Chung. Before that, he lost first round at the US Open to ATP #20 Davidovich Fokina.
- Monfils: Monfils has lost his last 4 matches, with the most recent being at the US Open where he lost in 5 sets to ATP #90 Safiullin.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Shevchenko: 10-23 ATS total including covering 2 of his last 11 matches.
- Monfils: 17-14 ATS total including covering 4 of his last 12 matches.
What It Means:
Both players are not coming in with any form. Monfils has lost his last four and Shevchenko’s recent cover results have been extremely poor. I believe Monfils is priced as a moderate favorite because of the belief that this is the perfect spot for him to break out of such a severe slump.
Terence Atmane vs. Dino Prizmic. H2H is 0-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Prizmic -130, Atmane +110. Prizmic -1.5 games. Over/Under 23 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Prizmic -150, Atmane +120.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Prizmic -146, Atmane +116.
Recent form:
- Atmane: Atmane’s last event was his incredible and improbable run to the semifinals of Cincinnati. He beat Cobolli, Fonseca, Rune, and Fritz before eventually losing to Sinner.
- Prizmic: Prizmic won 3 matches in US Open qualifying to reach the main draw before losing to #14 Rublev in straight sets. Prizmic has since lost in 3 sets to ATP #39 Moutet in Davis Cup qualifying.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Atmane: 12-11 ATS total including covering in 7 of his last 7 matches.
- Prizmic: Not enough data
What It Means:
At first glance it’s hard to believe that Prizmic would be favored after Atmane’s incredible run in his last event. I believe the books expect an inevitable dip in Atmane’s level after such a historic week. Prizmic is also currently playing at a level above his ranking. My counter to the books expecting a falloff from Atmane though would be this: Cincinnati was a month ago. It’s not a situation where this event was just mere days ago. He’s had time to adjust and settle down. We’ll see what happens.
Lorenzo Sonego vs. J.M. Cerundolo. H2H is 0-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Sonego -210, J.M. Cerundolo +170. Sonego -3 games. Over/Under 22.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Sonego -225. J.M. Cerundolo +175.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Sonego -215, J.M. Cerundolo +174.
Recent form:
- Sonego: Sonego most recently lost in the first round at the US Open in 5 sets to ATP #95 Schoolkate. Before that, he beat ATP #390 in 3 sets at Winston Salem before losing to ATP #37 Munar in 3 sets in the following round.
- J.M. Cerundolo: J.M. Cerundolo is coming off of a title at the Guangzhou Challenger, where he won all 5 of his matches. His last 3 wins were against ATP #112 Tabilo, ATP #131 Billy Harris, and ATP #152 Evans.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Sonego: 18-20 ATS total including covering 3 of his last 5 matches.
- J.M. Cerundolo: 23-13 ATS total including covering 6 of his last 8 matches.
What It Means:
What jumps out to me is how big of an underdog J.M. Cerundolo is after coming off a title. As I mentioned earlier with Atmane though, falloffs after a big result are common. Sonego is the more established and higher ceiling player which is why he’s getting the respect of the books in this one. His recent form is a bit shaky, though.
None of the above information is betting advice, it is purely just information for the reader to make their own decisions based off of.
