Friday’s ATP Chengdu slate includes 4 matches. I break down betting odds, recent player form, and overall trends for all 4 of them.
ATP Chengdu Open
Alejandro Tabilo vs. Luciano Darderi. H2H is 2-2. Darderi 1-0 on hard courts.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Tabilo -145, Darderi +120. Tabilo -2 games. Over/Under 23 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Tabilo -150, Darderi +120.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Tabilo -154, Darderi +124.
Recent form:
- Tabilo: Tabilo: Won 4 matches at his last event at the Guangzhou Challenger (Against #318, #228, #109, #103) and then lost to ATP #72 J.M. Cerundolo. Beat ATP #555 6-4 6-4 at this event in qualifying and then beat ATP #258 Harris and ATP #78 Thompson in the main draw.
- Darderi: Darderi is coming off of a clay Challenger title in his last event. He won 5 matches to win that tournament. At the US Open, Darderi beat #111 Hijikata and #128 Spizzirri in the main draw before losing in the 3rd round to #2 Alcaraz. This is his first match at the Chengdu Open this week.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Tabilo: 8-14 ATS total including covering 3 of his last 4 matches.
- Darderi: 24-21 ATS total including covering 3 of his last 5 matches.
What It Means:
Both guys have been doing a lot of winning lately. Darderi is the higher ranked player and has good form which may leave some wondering why he is priced as the underdog. I believe it is because of the belief that he’s a clay court specialist. I do think he is now a bit more than that though, proven by winning matches at the US Open and even having a 1-0 H2H against Tabilo on hard courts. Tabilo’s angle for being the favorite in this match must be due to the fact that he’s won 7 of his last 8 professional level matches. Darderi has also won exactly 7 of his last 8, but 5 of the wins were on clay.
Lorenzo Sonego vs. Marcos Giron. Sonego leads H2H 1-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Sonego -125, Giron +105. Sonego -0.5 games. Over/Under 23 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Sonego -110, Giron -110.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Sonego -116, Giron -108.
Recent form:
- Sonego: Sonego lost in the first round at the US Open in 5 sets to ATP #95 Schoolkate. Before that, he beat ATP #390 in 3 sets at Winston Salem before losing to ATP #37 Munar in 3 sets in the following round. At this event, Sonego beat #72 J.M. Cerundolo in 3 sets.
- Giron: Last tournament was the US Open, where Giron beat ATP #82 Navone and lost to ATP #45 Bonzi. Giron was coming off of 5 straight losses before that win. At this event, Giron beat ATP #81 Quinn in straight sets.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Sonego: 19-20 ATS total including covering 4 of his last 6 matches.
- Giron: 16-21 ATS total includng covering 2 of his last 7 matches.
What It Means:
Both players are in moderate form and are similar ceiling players. This to me is a true tossup. Sonego does lead the H2H and has been performing better than Giron ATS as of late.
Yi Zhou vs. Christopher O’Connell. H2H is 0-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): O’Connell -215, Zhou +175. O’Connell -2.5 games. Over/Under 22.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): O’Connell -200, Zhou +162.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): O’Connell -210, Zhou +170.
Recent form:
- O’Connell: O’Connell is coming off of a first round exit at the US Open to ATP #8 De Minaur and a week where he won 3 matches (Against #555, #178, and #281) at the Guangzhou Challenger. At this event, he beat ATP #75 Halys in 3 sets.
- Zhou: Zhou picked up a potential life-changing win against ATP #34 Norrie in 3 sets in his first match at this event. Before that, he was playing Challengers and Davis Cup qualifying and has been able to win 4 of his last 6 matches.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- O’Connell: 18-18 ATS total including covering 6 of his last 6 matches.
- Zhou: Not enough data
What It Means
Zhou was an unknown to most before his win over Norrie this week, which is why you see him here as a moderate underdog. It’s expected by the books to be a one-off performance. O’Connell has been playing very solid tennis as of late, proven by his recent ATS results in ATP main draw matches.
J.C. Shang vs. Brandon Nakashima. H2H is 0-0.
- Betting odds (Bovada): Nakashima -150, Shang +125. Nakashima -1.5 games. Over/Under 23.5 games.
- Betting odds (Bet365): Nakashima -163, Shang +130.
- Betting odds (FanDuel): Nakashima -148, Shang +120.
Recent form:
- Nakashima: Nakashima’s last event was the US Open. He beat ATP #80 De Jong in 5 sets and lost to ATP #155 Kym in 5 sets.
- Shang: Shang was coming off of 5 straight losses coming into this event. He was able to snap that streak with a win against ATP #46 Bergs in 3 sets.
2025 ATP Main Draw Cover Tendencies:
- Nakashima: 22-25 ATS total including covering 0 of his last 7 matches.
- Shang: Not enough data
What It Means:
Nakashima’s poor results ATS as of late is a noticeable statistic. Before this week, Shang’s form had also been awful, but a big win over Bergs has him trending in the right direction. The books have Nakashima priced as the favorite due to his hard court reputation. Normally, he’s reliable and predictable to play to his ranking on this surface.
None of the above information is betting advice, it is purely just information for the reader to make their own decisions based off of.
