By Federico Bertelli
The Barcelona tournament draw is unfolding without major surprises, which means the top seeds are advancing as expected, setting the stage for some high-profile clashes already in the quarterfinals. Among these, perhaps the most intriguing matchup is Arthur Fils vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas.
On one side of the net, we have the Greek clay-court specialist, who has consistently performed well in Barcelona, reaching the final four times at the Godó. On the other, there’s Arthur Fils—an emerging force whose development has accelerated notably in recent months. He’s started the European clay swing on a very promising note.
To better understand what kind of match this could turn out to be, and to explore the key areas where each player might look to gain an edge, we’ve broken down some numbers and added our own analysis. We’ve taken a representative sample of their 2024 matches so far, enough to provide a solid statistical foundation to draw some meaningful insights.
2024 Wins – Serve Performance
As expected, one of the keys to winning a match is having a high first-serve percentage, especially for two players like Tsitsipas and Fils, who both boast strong conversion rates behind their first serves. Over a large sample size, it’s rare to see significant differences in first-serve percentage between matches won and lost. However, in a single match, even small deviations can have a substantial impact, knowing what to expect in terms of average performance can already give us a solid baseline to interpret how things are unfolding.
Fils – AVG 1st serve in % → 63%
Tsitsipas – AVG 1st serve in % → 61%
Another stat that’s often linked (though the correlation weakens on slow clay courts like Barcelona) is 1st serve points won, based on the assumption that landing a first serve automatically provides an edge in the rally. If this percentage dips below a certain threshold, alarm bells start ringing—it suggests the player is losing a key advantage, often a sign of trouble.
Fils – AVG 1st serve points won % → 79%
Tsitsipas – AVG 1st serve points won % → 77%
To gauge how each player handles neutral or disadvantageous rally situations, we turn to second-serve points won. This stat tends to swing significantly between wins and losses. In this case, during their 2024 wins, both players have shown solid numbers, indicating they’re capable of holding their own even when not starting with the upper hand. It’s a stat worth watching closely during the match.
Fils – AVG 2nd serve points won % → 55%
Tsitsipas – AVG 2nd serve points won % → 58%
Finally, one of the clearest indicators of mental resilience in key moments is the break points saved percentage, especially when compared to overall points won on serve. The logic is simple: if a player’s break point save percentage is higher than their average serve points won, it suggests they’re raising their level under pressure. If it’s lower, it may be a sign the pressure is affecting performance. In a tight match where opportunities are few and evenly distributed, this stat could well prove decisive. In this department Tsitsipas appear better positioned.
Additional metrics
To dig deeper into the playing styles and performance profiles of both players, we can start by looking at their averages across a set of advanced statistics. These help paint a clearer picture of how Fils and Tsitsipas construct points, manage rallies, and impose their strengths—especially on a clay court like Barcelona.
Analysis by TennisViz; Data provided by Tennis Data Innovations
Over the past 52 weeks, the data shows a situation of overall balance between the two players, with one notable gap: return quality, where Fils holds a clear edge. Both players build their games around the forehand, which is undoubtedly the backbone of their baseline strategies. It’s fair to say that when their forehand is firing and the shot distribution leans heavily toward that wing, both Fils and Tsitsipas are likely to win matches. If not, it’s hard to expect miracles from the backhand side, which remains the more vulnerable flank for both.
Looking at the head-to-head record, their most recent meeting came in Basel, where Fils came out on top. However, that match can arguably be treated as an outlier—on that occasion, Fils delivered a near-flawless performance, leaving little room for meaningful takeaways in terms of predictive value for this clash on clay.
Therefore, if we’re looking to draw a more meaningful parallel, it might make more sense to turn our attention to last week in Monte Carlo, where both Tsitsipas and Fils were stopped in the quarterfinals, each losing in three sets—Tsitsipas to Musetti, and Fils to Alcaraz, who eventually went on to meet in the final.
This recent stretch highlights how Fils is starting to click in the development of his game. Compared to last year, there’s a clear upward trend that arguably began in late 2023 with his title run in Tokyo, and is now solidifying on clay. At this point, the Frenchman’s forehand is widely regarded as a legitimate weapon, something that puts fear into nearly every opponent—something we clearly saw in Monte Carlo.
What explains this forehand improvement? Quite simply, Fils is playing with more structure and discipline than he did in the past. It’s reminiscent of what some opponents used to say about Sinner a few years ago: “He hits hard, but thankfully he still misses.”
Well, in Fils’ case, his forehand is already a top-tier cannon in terms of raw ball-striking, but now he’s pairing it with greater shot selection and tactical maturity.
Analysis by TennisViz; Data provided by Tennis Data Innovations
AF in red refers to Arthur Fils, while ST in blue stands for Stefanos Tsitsipas.
To provide some context, here’s a general overview of the key metrics and trends:
To wrap up this match preview, the final element we want to highlight is return performance.
Here in Barcelona, Tsitsipas has gone from brilliance to breakdown—a drastic swing in return effectiveness that could prove pivotal against a player like Fils, who’s serving with increasing confidence and variety.
He was brilliant against Opelka, reading the serve well and taking control of the return games early. But then struggled heavily against Korda, looking passive and often late on the return—an inconsistency that raises some question marks ahead of this quarterfinal.
Data from Tennis TV – first set
If we had to single out one decisive variable, it would likely be the quality of Tsitsipas’s return. A loose, ineffective return could easily be punished by Fils—leaving Stefanos with little chance to turn points around.
Considering how Fils has been one of the best in 2024 at converting attacking opportunities, any failure to neutralize his first strike could quickly tilt the match in the Frenchman’s favor.
