What Do Jannik’s 2024 Numbers Reveal: An Analysis of Break Points Faced and Tie Breaks Played.
A few weeks ago, the third instalment of Jannik Sinner’s now-regular interview with Sky Italia was released. An interview where certain statements particularly caught our attention.
When you are ranked No. 10 in the world and you lose to the No. 5, it’s a bit different. But when you are the world No. 1, you are always ‘the one to beat.’ Yet that also makes the game more beautiful.
…
Lately, I’ve been entering tie-breaks with more tools at my disposal, which allows me to choose the most useful one during the tie-break.
– Jannik Sinner
What impressed us the most is the sense of calm he exudes under pressure. There’s a feeling of a young man who has immense fun when he steps onto the court because he is pursuing his passion. As a result, he seems to enjoy the key moments both emotionally and rationally. Emotionally, he approaches critical moments with the enthusiasm of someone who has reached the pro level of a video game, rolling up his sleeves and eager to perform his best. Rationally, he displays the ability to process gathered data to find the solution that can most damage his opponent in crucial moments.
We then tried to examine how Jannik has performed in key moments over the last 52 weeks to see if this impression of him being mentally unbreakable is supported by the data.
Tie-Break Performance
In one part of the Sky interview, Sky Sport’s Italy director jokingly asked:
If the fate of the world depended on a tie-break, they’d probably ask you to play it given your numbers this year. But how do you win a tie-break?
– Federico Ferri, Director of Sky Sport Italy
We took a look at the situation, analyzing ATP data to see who has been the most consistent in tie-breaks over the past 12 months, comparing performances against the world’s best with overall statistics. The tie-break, being a mini set, highlights both serving and returning skills and serves as an excellent indicator of overall quality in high-pressure moments. From this analysis, some surprising insights emerged. We filtered out players outside the top 50 and those with an insufficient number of observations against the top 10, resulting in the following summary table:
While Sinner has been one of the best at winning tie-breaks overall, the same cannot be said for his performance against the top 10. Against the general field, his win rate approaches 70%, but it drops by a significant 10% when facing elite-level players. This decline can be somewhat expected, given the higher level of competition. However, it’s also worth noting that Alcaraz shows the opposite trend; against top opponents, the Spaniard has elevated his game this year (+12.5%). So, if we had to pick someone to face “aliens” in a tie-break, we’d be happy to choose Jannik, but perhaps a bit happier if it were Carlitos.
Lastly, we should mention who we definitely wouldn’t want by our side in a tie-break fight: Alexander Zverev. The German tends to mentally collapse in matchups against other top 10 players. Zverev and Fritz are certainly the two top ten who disappoint the most in this regard.
Serving Performance
One area where Jannik has certainly improved significantly over the past 12-18 months is his serve. It’s incredible to think that a professional player—an extremely sophisticated and delicate machine—managed to adjust a stroke, even changing its mechanics, in just a few weeks (consider, for instance, the shift from a platform stance to a foot-up stance). Let’s take a look at how the Italian has performed on serve over the past year.
To do this, we’ll focus on a metric that is rarely highlighted but is appealing for its simplicity: the percentage of points won on the first serve relative to all service points played. Here’s an example: a player serves 100 points, with 60 of those being first serves in play. If they win 7 out of 10 points on their first serve, the percentage of all service points won with the first serve would be 42% (60% * 70%). The idea is straightforward: in modern tennis, the first serve should give an upside in the rally and provide a substantial advantage to the server. Consistently serving high percentages of weak first serves that don’t direct the exchange is of little value, which is reflected in a low win percentage on the first serve. Similarly, having a devastating first serve that rarely goes in is also ineffective, resulting in a high win rate coupled with a low first-serve percentage. By considering both variables, we can understand if the serve is both effective and consistently impactful.
Overall Serving Performance
We listed the top 40 players in this metric, and the results are quite expected, with Jannik ranking 10th in this category. It’s a bit frustrating to see Sonego so high on the list, while his overall ranking doesn’t reflect it. Unfortunately, returning serve has never been the strong suit of the young man from Turin, although his one-two punch with serve and forehand is second to none. But back to Jannik: his performance is generally strong, so let’s now compare it to his ability to save break points.
As we can see, Jannik’s ability to save break points is the absolute best, as he combines an outstanding defense on his second serve with excellent performance on his first. Additionally, there’s the psychological factor of handling tension in crucial points, which accounts for nearly a +3% boost for Jannik. Finally, here are two more data points that caught our attention.
Berrettini has perhaps had one of his best seasons in terms of serving effectiveness and handling crucial moments. In 2024, Matteo is ranked second on the ATP Tour both in terms of break point-saving ability and first-serve effectiveness. His strengths haven’t faded; the chronic issue remains injuries. However, when the Roman player steps onto the court, breaking his serve is always a formidable challenge.
Another data point that grabbed our attention involves Alcaraz, who, when facing break points, often gets swept away by the negative moment. In this regard, Carlitos remains a player of streaks, for better or worse, and the numbers confirm it. His -5.31% difference in performance on break points compared to his regular service points is one of the worst on tour.
Additionally, we present further data on Jannik’s ability to elevate his serve in break point situations, highlighting how much this single shot has improved. These figures, provided by TennisViz and based on Tennis Data Innovation, are quite revealing.
- On the ATP level, the average percentage of serves that an opponent cannot return is 38%. For Sinner, this percentage stands at 43%.
- In break point situations, the average percentage drops to 28% (-10%). For Sinner, however, it rises to 46% (+3%).
The unreturned serve data is particularly significant, illustrating how much Jannik has advanced with his serve. Opponents struggle immensely to return his serve, and even more so on break points—precisely when the average ATP player finds it difficult to produce an effective serve. This is where Jannik’s analytical ability comes into play: his statement about trying various solutions during the match and then using the best one in crucial moments is especially true for his serving choices.
Serving Performance Against the Top Ten
After reviewing his general performance, let’s examine how Jannik fares against a more select group: top 10 players. Here, his percentages remain strong, although one peculiar aspect stands out. In general, Jannik is dominant on his service games, ranking among the most successful players. However, when it comes to saving break points against the elite, even Jannik feels the tension, and his performance in these situations is slightly lower compared to regular points. Jannik’s real strength lies in not letting his opponents reach break points in the first place. If they do, he feels the pressure, even if just a little.
As before, here are some data points that caught our attention:
Here too, we see confirmation that Berrettini has given it his all this year, and it’s worth paying attention to two young players, Fils and Mensik, who seem to have a bold and fearless attitude when facing heavy points against top opponents. Lastly, we highlight how Alcaraz and Zverev often struggle against the best, with the Spaniard experiencing even more difficulty compared to the rest of the circuit. For Zverev, the drop-off is even more pronounced.
Conclusions
In 2024, Sinner has certainly dominated the circuit: his results and performances across various areas make that clear. What stands out from the data we analyzed over the last 52 weeks is that Jannik’s primary strength is avoiding uncomfortable positions. In other words, it’s incredibly difficult for opponents to reach break points or force tie-breaks against him. However, when this does happen—especially against top players—Sinner still shows some cracks and struggles. Nevertheless, his serving performance has improved exponentially, and in that area, his decision-making in crucial moments often pays off, perhaps even more so than in other aspects of his game.
