The winner of Sunday’s singles championship will also hold the No.1 ranking in the 2021 ATP Race to Turin.
Since the start of 2020, no one has won more matches than Andrey Rublev. The 23-year-old is now 65-14 over the past 16 months, with six titles (seven if you include the ATP Cup, a team event). He has been racking up 250 and 500-level trophies. But perhaps his biggest win yet came on Friday, as he earned his first victory over his idol, Rafael Nadal. Rublev has now reached his first Masters 1000 final, and he’s been simply stellar on recent championship Sundays. Andrey has won his last seven finals, and has dropped only one set in those matches. That one set was dropped to his opponent today, in a heartbreaking loss for Stefanos Tsitsipas.
Last September in Hamburg, Tsitsipas unsuccessfully served for the title at 5-3 in the third. That came just a few weeks after another devastating defeat for the Greek. At the US Open, he was up two-sets-to-one and two breaks against Borna Coric, but Tsitsipas would fail to convert six match points, succumbing to defeat in a fifth set tiebreak after nearly five hours. Just two days after the loss in Hamburg, Stefanos found himself down two-sets-to-love in the first round of Roland Garros. However, the 22-year-old survived on that day, and went on to reach the semifinals, avenging his loss to Rublev along the way. Stefanos would equal that result at this year’s Australian Open, and has now advanced to his third Masters 1000 final.
Sunday’s play will begin at 12:00pm local time with the doubles championship, followed by the singles final not before 2:30pm. However, there is a chance of rain throughout the afternoon in Monte-Carlo.
Stefanos Tsitsipas (4) vs. Andrey Rublev (6)
They have split six previous tour-level meetings, and also split their two clay court encounters. Four of those six matches occurred since September of last year, and they’ve split those as well. Their recent history starts with the aforementioned Hamburg final, which Rublev claimed 7-5 in the third. Less than two weeks later, Tsitsipas avenged that loss in the Roland Garros quarterfinals, defeating Rublev in straight sets. In the round robin stage of the ATP Finals, Tsitsipas again prevailed, this time in a third set tiebreak. And just last month in Rotterdam, Rublev was victorious in straights. With each gaining recent wins on different surfaces, as well as both indoors and outdoors, their rivalry has been extremely even.
Tsitsipas has advanced much more easily this week, comfortably capturing all seven sets he’s played. And he’s spent about three less hours on court than Rublev, who fought through three-setters against both Nadal and Roberto Bautista Agut. But that also highlights the tougher road Rublev has faced, which included two top 10 players. Tsitsipas is yet to face a player ranked inside the top 20.
In looking at their two recent clay court clashes, the player whose second serve percentage dropped below 50% lost the match. In Hamburg, Tsitsipas was down at 40%, while in Paris, Rublev was down at 38%. As Jim Courier highlighted on Tennis Channel, no top 50 player has a bigger discrepancy between their first and second serve speeds than Rublev. It will be crucial for Andrey to hit a high percentage of first serves, and avoid striking passive second serves.
But in one of the biggest matches of their careers to date, the way they handle this moment may be the most important factor. Stefanos certainly has the experience edge on bigger stages like this. He’s reached three Major semifinals, two previous Masters finals, and was the 2019 ATP Finals champion. While Rublev hasn’t attained any of those milestones yet, his dominance in recent 250 and 500-level finals may be a huge confidence boost on Sunday. By contrast, Tsitsipas has struggled in championship matches. He’s just 5-8 in his career, and has lost his last three, which includes the Hamburg loss at the hands of Rublev. And most concerning is Stefanos’ dismal 1-8 record in finals played outdoors. Based on those shortcomings, as well as Rublev’s wins over tough competition this week, I slightly favor the red-headed Russian to win his first Masters 1000 title.
Other Notable Matches on Sunday:
Nikola Mektic and Mate Pavic (2) vs. Dan Evans and Neal Skupski – Mektic and Pavic are 28-3 on the year, and are already vying for their fifth title. This is only Evans and Skupski’s second tournament as a team, and yet their second time making the final, as they did the same in Miami two weeks ago. And this is also Evans’ 10th match of the week.
Sunday’s full Order of Play is here.
