It’s the first time since 2004 the top four seeds have reached the semis at this event.
In the first semifinal, it’s the Australian Open champion against the US Open champion. In the second semifinal, it’s the French Open champion against the Paris Masters champion. And the doubles semifinals should be tight, compelling contests. All four teams went 2-1 in round-robin play, and eight of this week’s 12 doubles matches went the distance.
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Dominic Thiem (3)
This is a rematch from January’s Australian Open final, where Djokovic came back from two-sets-to-one down to prevail in five. While Thiem was denied winning his first Major title on that day, he would finally do so at the next Major, after Novak was defaulted in the fourth round of the US Open. They played an excellent match last year at this event, with Dominic prevailing in a third set tiebreak. That remains the Austrian’s only hard court victory over the Serbian, who has taken the other four. Overall Djokovic leads their rivalry 7-4, though Thiem has claimed four of their last six meetings. In round-robin play, Thiem was the better player, despite his unmotivated effort against Andrey Rublev in a dead rubber. Djokovic has appeared physically depleted at times this week, but Novak is great at winning matches even when he doesn’t play his best tennis. That’s evident in his 41-4 record this season. But Dominic is a vastly improved hard court player, with four titles on this surface since last year. And while Djokovic is a five-time champion of this tournament, he’s just 3-3 in his last two appearances. By contrast, Thiem is 5-3, with two of his losses coming in dead rubbers. Thiem is vying to be the first player to reach a second consecutive final at this event since Djokovic did so four years ago. But on this surface, the world No.1 must be considered a slight favorite considering he’s won an astonishing 89% of hard court matches over the past 10 seasons.
Rafael Nadal (2) vs. Daniil Medvedev (4)
The last two times these men met, they created epic encounters. In last year’s US Open final, Medvedev stormed back from down two sets and a break, only succumbing after five sets and nearly five hours. And last year at this event, Nadal again prevailed, in a match decided by a third set tiebreak. Both men have played at a high level this week, with Medvedev being the only player to go undefeated. And Nadal’s only loss came against Thiem in the best straight-set match of the year. This has been nice redemption for the Russian, who went 0-3 here a year ago in his ATP Finals debut. Medvedev is now on an eight-match winning streak, going back to this title run in Bercy two weeks ago. Nadal is 2-3 in semifinals of this tournament, and hasn’t reached the championship match since 2013. I expect another taxing, extended battle between these two today. But against a man he’s yet to lose to, don’t bet against the 20-time Major champion.
Doubles Matches on Day 7:
Three-time ATP champions in 2020 Marcel Granollers and Horacio Zeballos (4) vs. Wesley Koolhof and Nikola Mektic (5), who won no titles this year but reached two finals. Granollers and Zeballos controversially retired yesterday ahead of a first-set tiebreak, having already qualified to advance.
Australian Open champions Rajeev Ram and Joe Salisbury (2) vs. Jurgen Melzer and Edouard Roger-Vasselin (8), champions last month in St. Petersburg. Melzer and Roger-Vasselin controversially withdrew from last week’s final in Sofia the day before this tournament began.
Full order of play is here.