A pair of two-time Major champions will meet exactly two weeks after their Western & Southern Open final was canceled.
Naomi Osaka withdrew from that championship match due to a hamstring injury. While her upper leg remains taped, she’s shown no ill effects during this fortnight, with her level improving as the tournament has progressed. Of course it was two years ago at this event when Osaka upset Serena Williams to win her first Major, in one of the most controversial championship matches of all-time. Naomi also went on to win the next Slam in Australia, making her the first woman not named Serena to win back-to-back Majors since Kim Clijsters in 2011. This is the third time Osaka has advanced beyond the fourth round of a Slam event, and both previous times she became the champion. Two weeks ago, Naomi protested the latest incident of police brutality in the United States by withdrawing from the Western & Southern Open semifinals, which were subsequently rescheduled and her withdrawal withdrawn. For this tournament, she prepared seven masks with the names of seven victims, hoping she would get to wear all seven by reaching the final. Today, she gets to walk onto Arthur Ashe Stadium with her seventh and final mask.
Victoria Azarenka is into her fifth Major final, and her first in seven years. Her prior four all came between 2012 and 2013. She was expected to reach many more Slam finals in the coming years, but life had other plans. After struggling with injuries in 2014 and 2015, she returned to the top of the game by winning the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells and Miami) in 2016. She soon became injured again, then announced she was pregnant with her first child. An ensuing custody battle would prevent her from traveling for some time, derailing her return. Once she did return, the results were not immediate. Between 2018 and 2019, she went 6-7 at the Majors. She’s spoken of considering retirement because of her struggles, and skipped the 2020 Australian Open due to personal reasons. But everything has changed for Azarenka these last three weeks. After winning zero matches since last year’s Western & Southern Open, she won this year’s event, and is on an 11-match win streak. Her signature swagger is back, as is her staunch defiance.
Naomi Osaka (4) vs. Victoria Azarenka
Osaka leads their head-to-head 2-1, though both of those wins came on clay. Azarenka claimed their only hard court meeting, though that was at the 2016 Australian Open, well before Osaka was a top player. Suffice to say, their history is not telling of today’s outcome. The match’s biggest weapons will see Osaka’s serving prowess and Azarenka’s aggressive returns. Naomi has only been broken five times through six matches, while Vika has broken serve 32 times. However, a more important comparison may be Osaka’s return to Azarenka’s serve. Osaka is a pretty good returner herself, but the Azarenka serve can be a weakness, especially the second serve. She cannot afford to begin this match as she did on Thursday against Serena, with four double faults in a short first set. Azarenka has won 50% or less of second serve points in all of the last five rounds, and been broken 14 times over the last four rounds. And on top of that, Naomi is a superior mover around the court. But the most crucial stat may be this: Osaka is 8-0 in the last three rounds of a Major. Her poise in big moments is unparalleled amongst WTA players over the last few years. Naomi Osaka is the favorite to win her third Major championship.
