The final stage of round-robin matches will get underway at The O2 on Friday. Yesterday saw Rafael Nadal seal the year-end No.1 spot after challenger Novak Djokovic lost in straight sets. However, there is little for to celebrate for the king of clay. Today he faces the prospect of winning his match and still not qualifying for the semi-final stage of the tournament.
Here are the advancement scenarios for the Andre Agassi Group, with Tsitsipas advancing regardless of today’s results:
- Zverev advances if he wins, or if he loses in three sets and Tsitsipas wins.
- Nadal advances if both he and Medvedev win.
- Medvedev advances if he wins in two sets and Tsitsipas wins.
Rafael Nadal (1) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas (6)
Nadal seemed all but out of this tournament less than 48 hours ago, down 5-1 and a match point in the third set to Medvedev. But Rafa made a classic comeback, aided by a Medvedev meltdown, and Nadal now has new life. Rafa will need more help from Daniil today, as the only way Nadal can advance to tomorrow’s semifinals is if he wins and if Medvedev defeats Zverev. The first half of that equation will not be an easy task, against a confident and thus-far undefeated Tsitsipas. Stefanos already beat Medvedev and Zverev this week, and owns victories this year against Federer, Djokovic, and Nadal. The win over Rafa even came on clay in Rafa’s home country, when Tsitsipas prevailed in three sets at the Madrid Masters. But Nadal has been victorious the other four times these two have played, including the very next week at the Rome Masters. A fast indoor hard court is far from Rafa’s favorite surface, yet he should feel good coming off his great escape on Wednesday. He also does not have the pressure of battling for the year-end No.1 ranking, as the King of Clay has already secured that crown thanks to Federer’s win over Djokovic last night. And as our own Adam Addicott reported, Tsitsipas had an injection in his foot earlier this week, so he’s obviously not 100%. At the beginning of this week, Nadal’s advancement chances seemed slim, as he arrived with an abdominal injury that hampered his play on Monday. But with his tournament life on the line, I’m not betting against one of tennis’ all-time great competitors to find a way to win.
Year | Event | Surface | RND | Winner | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | ATP Masters 1000 Rome Italy |
Outdoor Clay | SF | Rafael Nadal |
63 64
|
2019 | ATP Masters 1000 Madrid Spain |
Outdoor Clay | SF | Stefanos Tsitsipas |
64 26 63
|
2019 | Australian Open Australia |
Outdoor Hard | SF | Rafael Nadal |
62 64 60
|
2018 | ATP Masters 1000 Canada Canada |
Outdoor Hard | F | Rafael Nadal |
62 764
|
2018 | Barcelona Spain |
Outdoor Clay | F | Rafael Nadal |
62 61
|
Daniil Medvedev (4) vs. Sascha Zverev (7)
If Nadal does win in the afternoon session, it would eliminate Medvedev from the tournament before this night match even takes place. Regardless of the afternoon match outcome, Zverev will be playing for his tournament life in this last match of the round robin stage. Sascha owns a 4-1 record over Daniil, though Medvedev claimed their last meeting. That was just last month in the final of the Shanghai Masters. But the Russian is not the same player he was a month ago, and he’s 0-3 since that championship match in Shanghai. Of course that includes the loss to Nadal two days ago, where Medvedev completely unraveled in the third set, sarcastically giving a thumbs up to his team after nearly after point he lost. It will be tough to come back and win after that defeat, especially against a player who has dominated their head-to-head. And as the the defending champion in London, Zverev has good vibes playing at the O2. The German should be favored to win, which would guarantee his place in the semifinals for the second straight year.
Year | Event | Surface | RND | Winner | Result |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | ATP Masters 1000 Shanghai China |
Outdoor Hard | F | Daniil Medvedev |
64 61
|
2018 | ATP Masters 1000 Canada Canada |
Outdoor Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev |
63 62
|
2018 | ATP Masters 1000 Miami FL, U.S.A. |
Outdoor Hard | R64 | Alexander Zverev |
64 16 765
|
2017 | Washington DC, U.S.A. |
Outdoor Hard | QF | Alexander Zverev |
62 64
|
2016 | St. Petersburg Russia |
Indoor Hard | R16 | Alexander Zverev |
63 75
|