22 of the 32 WTA seeds have survived this far, while less than half the seeded male players advanced to the third round. And while that would normally make “The Big Three” heavier favorites, Novak Djokovic is battling a considerable injury, and Roger Federer has not been himself. And on the women’s side, it still feels the number of possible champions is in the double digits. Who will make it through to the second week and emerge as the top contenders?
Serena Williams (8) vs. Karolina Muchova
Serena was furious with her form in her second round match against American teenager Katy McNally, feeling she made way too many errors with her forehand. McNally was able to take the first set, and frustrated Serena will her all-court game. Muchova also plays with a lot of variety, which was on full display yesterday in her third-set tiebreak win over Su-Wei Hsieh. Muchova’s game could also complicate matters for Serena. But the 23-time Major champion will benefit from having a day off, while Muchova grinded out that tough second round win in warm temperatures just yesterday. In their first career meeting, it may take Serena some time to figure out 23-year-old Czech, but I’m confident she’ll do so in the end.
Madison Keys (10) vs. Sofia Kenin (20)
This is a rematch from the Cincinnati semifinals just two weeks ago, where Keys prevailed in straight sets. But Kenin took their other prior encounter, back in May on the clay of Rome. Madison went on to win the title in Cincinnati, and comes into this match on an eight-match winning streak. But Kenin has been one of the hottest players on tour this summer, as she was semifinalist in both Cincy and Toronto. Neither woman has dropped a set this week in New York, so this should be good. As usual, the match will likely rest on Madison’s racket, as she can dictate play with her power. However, Kenin has quickly proven herself to be one of the WTA’s most dogged competitors, and she won’t succumb to defeat easily. But Keys loves playing at this tournament, with a 13-2 record over the past few years, so she’s the favorite to advance in this all-American matchup.
Elina Svitolina (5) vs. Dayana Yastremska (32)
We go from an All-American matchup to an all-Ukranian matchup. Svitolina ousted a game Venus Williams in front of a raucous crowd in the last round, and now faces the challenge of taking on a countrywoman five years her junior. It’s been a breakthrough season for Yastremska, who’s won two titles and reached the fourth round at Wimbledon. And she has the firepower to take it to the fifth seed, who prefers to stay on the defense. Just earlier this summer in a straight set victory over Victoria Azarenka in Toronto, Dayana struck 47 winners. And speaking of Azarenka, this matchup is reminiscent of her Belarusian battle of generations against Aryna Sabalenka. The younger competitor won on that day, and I wouldn’t be surprised if that happened here as well. It seems only a matter of time before Yastremska is making deep runs at Majors, and I think she could take the next step today.
Kei Nishikori (7) vs. Alex de Minaur
Get ready for some tremendous rallies from two of the ATP’s speediest players. Nishikori has reached the quarterfinals at every Major this year, establishing himself one of tennis’ most reliable performers at big events. Kei benefitted from the retirement of Marco Trungelliti halfway through their opening round, and overcame a fourth set comeback from American Bradley Klahn on Wednesday. Meanwhile the 20-year-old Australian was forced to play his second round match yesterday due to rain, but easily defeated the 31st seed Cristian Garin in straight sets. De Minaur was twice a champion this season, in both Sydney and Atlanta. He loves playing on the hard courts, and pushed former champion Marin Cilic to 7-5 in the fifth here a year ago. Alex thrillingly saved six match points before Cilic closed out that battle. In their first career meeting today, it feels like de Minaur is primed for a breakthrough. This is his fourth time into the third round of a Major, but he’s yet to advance farther. Based on the way he’s been serving, and his competitive streak, Alex may just upset the former US Open finalist in what I expect will be an extended affair.
Daniil Medvedev (5) vs. Feliciano Lopez
Medvedev has been the winningiest player on tour this year, especially over the past month. But perhaps all that tennis is finally catching up with him. Daniil has played 18 matches since July 30th, and appeared to be battling fighting body cramps in his four-set win yesterday. Today he faces one of the oldest yet fittest players on tour in 37-year-old Feliciano Lopez, who also won their only previous meeting two years ago on clay. And Feli can still go in singles: he was the Queens Club champion just a few months ago. Yet Lopez also had an exhausting match of his own yesterday against Yoshihito Nishioka. On a hard court, Medvedev remains the favorite, as long as his body cooperates.
Other notable matches on Day 5:
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. Denis Kudla, a 27-year-old American into the third round of a Major for the second time. How will Djokovic’s shoulder be two days after he was in obvious pain?
Roger Federer (3) vs. Dan Evans. Federer is 2-0 against the 29-year-old Brit, but Evans pushed him to two tiebreaks in Australia earlier this year.
Ash Barty (2) vs. Maria Sakkari (30). Barty owns a 2-1 record in their head-to-head, though Sakkari claimed their only meeting in the US, last year in Indian Wells.
Karolina Pliskova (3) vs. Ons Jabeur, a 25-year-old from Tunisia who has never been farther than this stage of a Slam.
Stan Wawrinka (23) vs. Paolo Lorenzi, a 37-year-old lucky loser from Italy who spent nearly 13 hours on court in his last three matches, with almost five hours of that coming yesterday afternoon.
Johanna Konta (16) vs. Shuai Zhang (33). Konta has a 4-1 edge, with Shuai’s only win coming in her home country of China.
Anastasija Sevastova (12) vs. Petra Martic (22). They’ve split two previous meetings, both played on clay.
Order of play
Arthur Ashe Stadium – 5pm (BST) start
Roger Federer [3] vs Dan Evans
Not before 6.30pm
Serena Williams vs Karolina Muchova
Not before 12am
Sofia Kenin [20] vs Madison Keys [10]
Novak Djokovic [1] Denis Kudla
Louis Armstrong Stadium – 4pm (BST) start
Ons Jabeur vs Karolina Pliskova [3]
Maria Sakkari [30] vs Ashleigh Barty [2]
Not before 7.30pm
Stan Wawrinka [23] vs Paolo Lorenzi
Not before 12am
Elina Svitolina [5] vs Dayana Yastremska [32]
Feliciano Lopez vs Daniil Medvedev
Grandstand – 4pm (BST) start
Alex de Minaur vs Kei Nishikori [7]
Johanna Konta [16] vs Zhang Shuai [33]
Fiona Ferro vs Qiang Wang [18]
Dominik Koepfer vs Nikoloz Basilashvili [17]
Court 17 – 4pm [BST] start
Pablo Carrena Busta vs David Goffin [15]
Grigor Dimitrov vs Kamil Majchrzak
Court 10 – 4pm [BST] start
Petra Martic [22] vs Anastasija Sevastova [12]