By Matthew Marolf
Based on how Federer, Nadal, and Djokovic played on Monday, that seems unlikely. As Jon Wertheim of Sports Illustrated highlighted, they combined to only face one break point in the fourth round, one which Federer saved. But all three will face stiffer competition on Wednesday, in three opponents with experience at this stage, as well as the capability of making these quarterfinals anything but straightforward. And the fourth quarterfinal of the day features a matchup that surely no one had pencilled in at the start of the tournament, between two tour veterans vying for their first Major semi-final.
Roger Federer (2) vs. Kei Nishikori (8)
A year ago in this round of The Championships, Federer was up two sets and held a match point, before Kevin Anderson came roaring back to upset the eight-time champion. Could Roger stall again in this same round? Federer holds a 7-3 advantage over Nishikori, though Kei claimed their last meeting, on an indoor hard court at the ATP Finals last November. Roger won their only match on grass, five years ago in Halle.
This is only their second encounter at a Major, with the first being Federer’s five set win on his way to the 2017 Australian Open title. Normally when Kei gets to this point of a Major, he’s completely wiped out, as he’s prone to five set battles in earlier rounds. But for the first time in a long time, Nishikori should be fully fresh for this quarterfinal, having only dropped one set on his way here. And I’m sure he’s enjoying the slightly slower court speeds and higher bounces at Wimbledon this year, which will play to his advantage against the fast-court loving Federer.
As sharp as Roger has played during this fortnight, I think Kei has a real shot at upsetting the all-time great on his favourite court. And if Nishikori can make this an extended affair, he has the best deciding set record in the Open Era, and is 23-6 in five set matches. The near-38-year-old Federer will need to avoid a fifth set in order to advance to his 13th semi-final at Wimbledon
Novak Djokovic (1) vs. David Goffin (21)
Djokovic is 5-1 against Goffin, though David took their last match, on the clay of Monte Carlo in 2017. It had been a rough 18 months for Goffin as he fought to regain his confidence after suffering a few freak injuries, but he’s finally playing some great tennis again. He took a set off Nadal at Roland Garros, then made the final in Halle, and is now into his first Wimbledon quarterfinal.
As taxing an opponent as he can be, Djokovic does everything just a bit better than Goffin. Novak would need to be a bit off his game for David to prevail. And judging by how comfortably Djokovic has advanced through the first four rounds, that’s not looking likely.
Rafael Nadal (3) vs. Sam Querrey
On paper, this looks like a blowout. It’s the 18-time Major champion against an unseeded player who missed much of 2019 with an abdominal injury. But Querrey is fully comfortable on the grass of The All England Club, and has a power game that can take control of the match away from Nadal. Despite having not played in nearly three months, Sam reached the final in Eastbourne the week before this tournament.
And this is now the third time in four years he’s advanced to the quarterfinals of Wimbledon. In 2016, he upset Novak Djokovic in the third round. And in 2017, he took out a hobbled Andy Murray on Centre Court, so Sam has plenty of experience in knocking out top names at SW19. Nadal though will benefit from having already faced two players with a similar style to that of Querrey’s, in Nick Kyrgios and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga. While I can see Querrey testing Nadal on this day, Rafa remains the favourite to reach his second consecutive Wimbledon semi-final.
Roberto Bautista Agut (23) vs. Guido Pella (26)
Bautista Agut is into his second Major quarterfinal, with his first coming six months in Australia. But unlike that massive effort in which he survived three five-setters to get this far, he’s the only gentlemen’s quarterfinalist to not yet drop a set. Meanwhile coming into this tournament, Pella had never been beyond the third round at a Slam, and had not even advanced that far until just a year ago. The 29-year-old from Argentina was known as a clay court specialist, and owned a losing record on both grass and hard courts in his career.
Yet Guido upset two former Wimbledon finalists back-to-back to get here, in Kevin Anderson and Milos Raonic. But after a near-four hour, 8-6 in the fifth victory over the Canadian late in the day on Monday, what will Guido have left less than 48 hours later? Roberto has won both their previous meetings, most recently just a few months ago on the clay of Munich. With this faster surface favouring the atypical hitting of the Spaniard, who excels on faster courts, Bautista Agut will likely be the one playing in his first Major semi-final come Friday.
Other notable matches on Day 9:
In the third round of mixed doubles on No.2 Court, Andy Murray and Serena Williams, who have deemed themselves as “Team Murrena,” vs. the top seeds, Bruno Soares and Nicole Melichar.
In the quarterfinals of ladies’ doubles on No.2 Court, four top singles stars will face off. It will be Su-Wei Hsieh and singles semifinalist Barbora Strycova (3) vs. Elise Mertens and Aryna Sabalenka.
In the quarterfinals of gentlemen’s doubles on No.3 Court, Raven Klassen and Michael Venus (3) vs. Henri Kontinen and John Peers, who survived Wimbledon’s first ever final set tiebreak by a score of 13-12 in the fifth just yesterday.
