By Daniele Malafarina
The Australian Open tournament organizers have announced that the “Happy Slam” will return to seeding only 16 players instead of the current 32 as of 2019. This decision could potentially produce clashes between the top players in the world and other members of the top 20 in the first few rounds. According to a few sports analysts, this will make the early rounds more interesting and appealing, while others claim that too many upsets in the first few days of competition could cause imbalances in different sections of the draw affecting the final stages of the tournament.
Draws featuring 32 seeds were first implemented at Wimbledon in 2001. We conducted an analysis of the 46 Slams that were contested during the time period between the 1990 Australian Open and the 2001 French Open, when main draws still featured 16 seeds: The goal is to study how often top 16 seeded players lost to players ranked between No. 17 and 32 in the first two rounds.
Among a few significant Grand Slam events that were affected by major upsets in the early rounds, the 1990 French Open is the perfect example of how seeding 32 players can certainly make a difference compared to seeding only 16. Ivan Lendl – who was world No. 1 at the time – decided to withdraw from Roland Garros and better prepare for the grass court season, while chasing an elusive Wimbledon title. Stefan Edberg and Boris Becker were the first two seeds and lost in the first round against two extraordinary young talents: 19-year-old Sergi Bruguera who went on to win back-to-back French Open titles in 1993 and 1994, and 18-year-old Goran Ivanisevic who would reach his first Wimbledon semifinal a couple of weeks later. Even if the 1990 French Open had featured 32 seeds, at the time Bruguera and Ivanisevic wouldn’t have been ranked high enough to make the cut. Plenty of notable absences heavily affected that edition of Roland Garros, with 10 of the first 42 ranked players withdrawing before the tournament started: Lendl, Gilbert, McEnroe, Mayotte, Wilander, Sampras, Steeb, Skoff, Masur and Van Rensburg. The No. 32 seed would have been assigned to the No. 42 ranked player, leaving No. 43-ranked Ivanisevic and No. 46-ranked Bruguera out. As a result, 32 seeds wouldn’t have protected nor saved Edberg and Becker.
Besides the 1990 French Open, there are very few other cases that are worth remembering. We counted eight major upsets in the eleven years that were analyzed in our study.
- No. 26-ranked Pioline upset No. 4-seeded and two-time champion Rafter at the 1999 US Open, when the Australian had just come back to the tour after an injury.
- No. 1-seeded Kafelnikov was surprised by No. 30-ranked Hrbaty at the 1999 French Open.
- No. 25-ranked Moya prevailed over No. 6-seeded and defending champion Becker at the 1997 Australian Open. Moya eventually reached the final before losing to Sampras.
- No. 2-seeded Sampras lost to No. 24-ranked Schaller in the first round of the 1995 French Open.
- No. 2-seeded Stich was defeated by No. 23-ranked Washington in the first round of the 1994 Australian Open. A few months later, Stich also lost to No. 33-ranked Krickstein in the second round of the French Open.
- No. 19-ranked Novacek upset No. 3-seeded and defending champion Edberg in the second round of the 1993 US Open.
- No. 28-ranked Edberg defeated No. 7-seeded Krajicek in the first round of the 1996 US Open, when the Swede was competing in the last Grand Slam tournament of his illustrious career and the Dutch wasn’t one of the main contenders for the title.
- No. 2-seeded Sampras lost to No. 25-ranked Philippoussis in the first round of the 2000 French Open, but it is safe to say that the American wouldn’t have gone much further on clay, especially at the twilight of his career.
We analyzed 164 matches that were contested by the 16 seeds against players ranked between No. 17 and 32 in the first two rounds of 46 Grand Slam events. 117 of those matches were won by seeded players with an astonishing ratio of 71%. Only 6 of the 47 upsets involved the first four seeded players, which means less than 4%. On the other hand, the first four seeded players won 27 of 33 matches (82%) against players ranked between No. 17 and 32.
7 of those 27 wins were remarkably scored by Pete Sampras, and 4 of them occurred in 1996 when the American defeated Gustarfsson and Bruguera at Roland Garros and Reneberg and Philippoussis at Wimbledon. In 1996 Sampras reached the semis in Paris and collapsed against Kafelnikov after surviving three consecutive five-setters against Bruguera, Martin and Courier. Had the tournament featured 32 seeds and given Sampras a few easier matches in the early rounds, Pistol Pete would have probably had better chances to win the French Open title that year. A few weeks later at the All England Club, Sampras suffered his only Wimbledon loss between 1993 and 2000 against Kraijcek in the quarterfinals, citing fatigue as a key factor.
On average, one of the first 16 seeded players lost to a contestant that would have been seeded in a 32 seed draw only once per Grand Slam tournament. The 1991 French Open is the only case with four upsets in the same tournament, while the 1993 US Open had three.
In conclusion, the stats show that upsets caused by a draw with 16 seeds instead of 32 are rather insignificant. An average of one appealing feature match per day would certainly create more buzz around the first four days of competition in Grand Slam tournaments, without seriously compromising the chances of the best players in the world.
(Article translation provided by T&L Global – Translation & Language Solutions – www.t-lglobal.com )
Alex Olmedo Was More Than Charming…
Alejandro “Alex” Olmedo Rodríguez, the man who came from so little and made so much from being able to play extraordinary tennis, has left many with cherished memories, as Mark Winters’ story brings out…
He was born in Arequipa, the second largest city in Peru. It is 678 kilometers from the country’s largest city and its capital, Lima. His hometown is known for its spicy cuisine and the volcanic white stone that is used in the construction of the eye-catching buildings and houses that line the streets. He was the son of the man who took care of the clay tennis courts at the Club Internacional Arequipa. He taught himself to play and spent time working as a ball boy at the club. As a teenager, he made his way to the US and went on to become one of the game’s greats.
Though the story of Alejandro “Alex” Olmedo Rodríguez, who passed away on December 9th due to brain cancer at the age of 84 at his home in Encino, California, reads like a fairytale, it is actually a good deal more dramatic than “Once upon a time”…
He first came to the country that would eventually become his home in 1951 to play in the US National Championship at Forest Hills, New York. In a prelude to threads that would be woven throughout his life, Olmedo lost 6-0, 6-4, 6-1 to Jacque Grigry, who was from Alhambra, California and was a three-time All-American at USC. Being the best player in Peru, at the beginning of 1954, the seventeen-year-old became an adventurer. In effect he played a role in the yet-to-be-made John Hughes movie “Planes, Trains and Automobiles”. Thanks to money raised in Arequipa, Olmedo, who didn’t speak English at the time, journeyed from Peru to Havana by ship, then to Miami by plane, and came to California on a bus.
He ended up at Modesto Junior College, in the town of the same name, in Central California. He took English and other classes and played on the school’s tennis team which was one of the best in the state at the time. The 1954 squad included Olmedo, who lost to Pancho Contreras in the State Junior College Singles final, and Joaquin Reyes, who lost to Contreras in the state singles title round the year before. The trio, who were members of the third Modesto Junior College Hall of Fame induction class, moved on to USC. (In the mid-1950s, Modesto’s tennis program was a conduit to USC tennis and their acclaimed coach, George Toley. Players would finish their two-years at Modesto, then move south to become Trojan competitors.)
Their “good” on the JC level became even better in NCAA competition. Contreras and Reyes won the NCAA Doubles in 1955. The next year, Olmedo doubled, taking the singles title and then the doubles with Contreras. In 1958, he doubled again earning the singles champion and teamed with Ed Atkinson for the doubles trophy.
At five feet, ten inches tall, Olmedo wasn’t physically imposing. But, he had a formidable serve produced from a free-flowing motion that featured ballerina-like tip-toe balance as he tossed the ball up. That was merely a prelude to an exacting forehand and deft volleying. He was extremely quick and athletic. He had flair, along with a feel that combined to make him a solid competitor. Yet, the thing that made him a standout was his approach. In a 1959 story in Sports Illustrated, he revealed that from playing, not the advice of coaches, he learned how to play…
Perry T. Jones, the fabled leader of tennis in Southern California from 1930 until his death in 1970, was unrivaled when it came to controlling the game locally, nationally and for that matter, internationally. Aware that Olmedo had lived in the country for more than three years, along with the fact that Peru did not have a Davis Cup team, at the time, Jones recruited the twenty-two year-old to play for the US. And it just so happened that Jones was the US Davis Cup captain in 1958 and would be again in ’59.
Olmedo, who had made an impression in NCAA play, added to his accomplishments playing Davis Cup for Jones, as a non-US citizen, in the US’s 3-2 victory over Australia. The 1958 Challenge Round was played on the luxurious grass at the Milton Courts in Brisbane, December 29th through the 31st. The “Chief”, as he had been nicknamed because of his cultural background, was responsible for each one of the winner’s points. He defeated Mal Anderson and Ashley Cooper both in four sets and teamed with Ham Richardson to outlast Anderson and Neale Fraser in an epic five set doubles contest. (Barry MacKay, who lost both his singles matches, was the other US team member; and Jones was the non-playing captain.)
In the semifinals, the US defeated Italy 5-0 on the grass at Royal King’s Park Tennis Club, in Perth, December 19th through the 21st. In the last match of the tie, Olmedo downed Orlando Sirola, the six foot-seven inch competitor who began playing the game at the age of 22 (in 1950), 20-18, 6-1, 6-4. The thirty-eight games played in the first set established the record for most games in a singles set. (As the holder of the title, Australia was not required to compete in the preliminary rounds of the Davis Cup.)
Olmedo’s trophy collecting continued at even more brisk pace in 1959. At the Australian National Championship at Memorial Drive in Adelaide, January 16th through the 26th, he defeated Fraser, 6-1, 6-2, 3-6, 6-3 in the final. On the lawns at the All England Lawn Tennis Club in London, Olmedo methodically vanquished Rod Laver, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 in the Wimbledon title round. It was strangely fitting that the match was played on Saturday, July 4th, a holiday celebrated in his adopted country. Looking to join – Jack Crawford of Australia (1933); Fred Perry of Great Britain (1934); Tony Trabert of the US (1955); Lew Hoad of Australia (1956) – as one of the few players to win three of the four majors in a signal season, Fraser gained revenge for his loss in Australia, confounding Olmedo in the US National Championship Singles final, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2, 6-4.
(The incomparable, J. Donald Budge set the standard winning all four of the Grand Slam singles titles in 1938.)
Former stars of the men’s Los Angeles tournament – Ted Schroeder, Alex Olmedo, Ellsworth Vines, Fred Perry, Arthur Ashe and Jack Kramer Photo Mark Winters
In 1960, Olmedo joined the professional ranks. He enjoyed moderate success on the Jack Kramer Tour winning the 1960 US Pro title, reaching the semifinals at the Wembley Pro events in 1960 and ’63, as well as being a quarterfinalist at the French Pro tournaments in 1962 and ’64. His competitive pro career came to an end in 1965 when he retired.
Shortly after his playing career came to an end, he began another as a teaching professional. Being personable and never too busy to chat made him an institution at the Beverly Hill Hotel. As the Director of Tennis at the legendary spa, he held court for close to forty years. During that time, he taught (and cajoled in a friendly manner) the likes of Katharine Hepburn and the irrepressible Charlton Heston, who played the game as if he were still Ben-Hur (the role that took him to movie stardom in 1959).
During the early 1970s before he became US Davis Cup captain, International Tennis Hall of Famer, Tony Trabert worked with Kathy May regularly at her father’s house in Beverly Hills. It was a mere three blocks from Olmedo’s teaching court at the Beverly Hills Hotel. I was fortunate to be able to take part in Trabert’s workouts with May, who is Taylor Fritz’s mother. On a number of occasions, prior to the afternoon’s at David May’s or after they had taken place, I would drop-in on Olmedo. He treated me like a long-lost friend, often telling me “we had to find time to have a hit …”, or inviting me to come back and have lunch with him. Even more meaningful, whenever I needed quotes for a story I was putting together, he found a way to always be available for a chat. He would not only answer my questions, he would regularly add insights that varied from meaningful, to amusing, to scandalous. He had a magic personality.
Olmedo’s on court success was recognized in 1983 when he became an inaugural member of the Intercollegiate Tennis Association Men’s Hall of Fame. The USC Athletics Hall of Fame enshrined him in 1997. He was inducted into the Southern California Tennis Association Hall of Fame in 2000. The ultimate accolade came in 1987 when Olmedo became a member of the International Tennis Hall of Fame. (And as mentioned above, he was in Modesto Junior College third Hall of Fame class.)
“The Chief” passed away at his Encino, California home. He is survived by Alejandro Jr., his son, along with Amy and Angela, his daughters, as well as four grandchildren.
The man who came from so little and made so much from being able to play extraordinarily well will be remember for much more. The foremost was for giving so many the opportunity to develop a friendship with Alejandro “Alex” Olmedo Rodríguez.
It Isn’t Just Football Who Are Mourning The Loss Of Diego Maradona
The world of football has lost one of its icons and tennis has lost a loyal fan.
It was during the 2013 Dubai Tennis Championships when Diego Armando Maradona stated that tennis was his second favourite sport after his beloved football.
The Argentinian sporting icon was a passionate and enthusiastic follower for more than 30 years until his death on Wednesday due to a heart attack. Regularly he would be seen watching matches in crowds at various tournaments. One of the earliest anecdotes took place in 1984 when he turned up to watch the French Open final and cheered on John McEnroe, who was taking on Ivan Lendl. Swiss journalist Rene Stauffer was sitting next to him and remembers the iconic figure ‘cheering like crazy.’
Of course it was his fellow countrymen and women who Maradona was most interested in supporting. One in particular was Juan Martin del Potro who won the 2009 US Open. He once joked ‘Next week I’ll be the one training del Potro myself. I will ask Franco Davin to step aside and Diego will train del Potro.‘ He appeared to have a great amount of respect for the former world No.3 who is one of thousands mourning his death.
“I feel that you return to the place that belongs to you, HEAVEN. For me you will never die. Rest in peace,” Del Potro wrote on Twitter.
After retiring from professional football in 1997 Maradona encountered his own personal demons as he battled with health issues and drug addiction. Nevertheless, his passion for sport never suffered. Attending various Davis Cup ties, he was usually seen shouting and cheering for his countrymen. He even had his own VIP box sporting his country’s flag with the words ‘The Maradona family is here‘ during the 2017 final between Argentina and Croatia.
Despite his calibre, Maradona said that he was star struck to meet some of tennis’ top names. One of those was former world No.1 Caroline Wozniacki who got talking to him during the Dubai Tennis Championships seven years ago. At the time Maradona was an ambassador for the Dubai Sports Council (DSC).
“I had the pleasure to meet Caroline Wozniacki. She is one of the top players and she is very beautiful and a very nice girl,” he said. “Despite her ranking and all her achievements, she came to say hello to me, although I’m the one who wanted to get up and go and greet her.”
As for the three giants of men’s tennis, Maradona cheered them on and spoke to them on numerous occasions. Wheather that was in person or via video message.
For Rafael Nadal this year marks the 10th anniversary of when the two spoke with each other at the ATP World Tour Finals in London. When the news broke of Maradona’s death he was one of the first to pay tribute.
“One of the greatest sportsmen in history, Diego Maradona, has left us. What he did in football will remain. My deepest and most heartfelt condolences to his family, the world of football, and to all of Argentina.” He wrote on social media.
It was in the same tournament as Nadal when Novak Djokovic once said ‘to have him as a supporter is an incredible honour and a pleasure.‘ A few months on from that, the two briefly spent time together in Abu Dubai as the Serbian conducted his off-season training.
One of Maradona’s final interactions with tennis before his death took place last year when Roger Federer played an exhibition match in Buenos Aires. In a video message broadcasted on the screens of the stadium he said to the Swiss ‘you were, you are and will be the greatest. There’s no other like you.‘ Words that brought tears to the eye of the 20-time Grand Slam champion. Originally the two had planned to meet in person but were unable to due to Maradona’s health.
It was just three weeks ago when world No.9 Diego Schwartzman spoke out about the influence the footballing great has had on his country. The two never met in person but like many others, he was an idol for the tennis star.
“He’s been a sports idol since I was a kid. I’ve seen it on YouTube, not only, I’ve seen it on TV too. I’ve never seen him for real. He’s one of my soccer idols and I love soccer.” Schwartzman said.
“Wherever we go, everyone knows Argentina thanks to Maradona! This is the reason why I have the first name, Diego.”
Argentina has declared three days of national mourning following Maradona’s death.
The ATP Finals Exceeded Expectations But There Was No Changing Of The Guard
Daniil Medvedev has shown how a player outside of the Big Three can shine at one of the most significant tournaments in men’s tennis but it is wrong to read too much into this achievement.
On Sunday afternoon the 2020 tennis season ended with a pulsating showdown between two of the biggest names outside of the formidable Big Three.
Daniil Medvedev held his nerve to fight back and edge out Dominic Thiem in an enthralling roller-coaster encounter that lasted almost three hours. Besides claiming the biggest title of his career to date, the Russian has become only the fourth player in history to defeat the world’s top three players at the same tournament, following in the footsteps of Boris Becker, Novak Djokovic and David Nalbandian.
In the aftermath of Medvedev’s victory came the inevitable question – is this the start of a new era in men’s tennis? For over the last decade the Tour has been dominated by Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. Between them they have won 57 Grand Slam titles and shared the No.1 position continuously since August 2017. In fact, since February 2nd 2004, Andy Murray is the only other player outside of the trio to have held the top position.
“Hopefully all of us young guys will keep pushing and will have some great rivalries,” Medvedev told reporters on Sunday.
“Hopefully we can be there for a long time, maybe pushing the other generations back because that’s how we can be close to the Top 3.”
Medvedev’s emphatic performance at the end-of-season event showed that he has what it takes to scale the top of the game but recent history suggests that too much shouldn’t be read into it. Remarkably no member of the Big Three has won the event since Djokovic in 2015. Instead there have been five different champions most recently with each of those years raising hopes that there could be a changing of the guard on the Tour.
However, those hopes have never fully materialised. Prior to Medvedev, the four most recent ATP Finals champions have failed to win multiple titles the following year. In the case of 2017 winner Grigor Dimitrov, he hasn’t won a trophy of any sort since.
|ATP Finals champion||Titles won over the next 12 months||Best Grand Slam run over next 12 months||Year-end ranking 12 months later|
|Andy Murray (2016)||1||French Open SF||16 (down 15)|
|Grigor Dimitrov (2017)||0||Australian Open QF||19 (down 16)|
|Alexander Zverev (2018)||1||French Open QF||7 (down 4)|
|Stefanos Tsitsipas (2019)||1||French Open SF||6 (no change)|
It can be argued that the numbers above fail to tell the full story. For example Andy Murray’s injury woes started to hinder him the year after he won the tournament and Tsitsipas’ season has been marred by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although it does illustrate that staying at the very top of the game on a consistent basis without beng a member of the Big Three is a tough ask, raising questions about if the landscape of men’s tennis will ever change before Djokovic and co retire?
“There is going to be a time when they are not around anymore, then it’s going to be so important to keep all the tennis fans and to keep them with this great sport,” world No.3 Thiem explains.
“I think that’s our challenge, that we perform well and play great in big tournaments to become huge stars ourselves.
“It’s super important for tennis in general because they (the Big Three) gave so much to the sport. That’s our challenge to keep all those people with tennis and to maybe continue their story.”
Thiem boasts the honour of having at least five wins over every member of the trio, something that has only ever been achieved by Murray. In London he defeated both Nadal and Djokovic which was something Medvedev also managed to achieve during the same week.
Veteran journalist Steve Flink perhaps is one of the most knowledgeable figures when it comes to the evolution of men’s tennis in the Open Era. His work in the sport dates back to 1972 when he was a statistician covering the US Open for CBS and working alongside the iconic Bud Collins. In a video chat with UbiTennis, Flink notes the recent shortcomings by ATP Finals champions but is hopeful that 2021 could be different.
“I don’t think we should put too much stock on this. On the other hand, Medvedev has ended the year strong and Thiem has now finally won a major at the US Open. You have to believe that these two guys will be threatening (for titles) next year with Thiem challenging for his second major and Medvedev to maybe win his first. So maybe there will be some more equity in men’s tennis,” he said.
Only time will tell about what may happen next year and if Medvedev’s ATP Finals triumph will have any impact at all. The only certainty is that more people are starting to talk about the other guys and that is a victory in itself for the future of the sport.
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Roberto Bautista Agut apologizes after comparing the Australian Open bubble to prison
Veronika Kudermetova builds up to the Australian Open with confidence after her breakthrough tournament in Abu Dhabi
Rafael Nadal joins star-studded Rotterdam field
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina decides to skip the Australian Open
Ion Tiriac Launches Fresh Tirade Against Serena Williams
REPORT: Novak Djokovic Sends Letter To Australian Open Chief Over Quarantine Measures
Fitness Not The Reason Behind Roger Federer’s Australian Open Withdrawal, Says Official
Australian Open Champion Sofia Kenin Loses Management Contract
EXCLUSIVE: How Matt Roberts Became One Of The Voices Behind The Tennis Podcast
Steve Flink: “Medvedev Deserved To Win, But Is This Really The Onset Of A New Era?”
Steve Flink On The Decline Of American Men’s Tennis: “We Need To Start Attracting The Best Athletes Again”
French Open, Steve Flink: “Nadal is inhuman. He can play three or four more years and retire with Djokovic”
Scanagatta And Flink: “We Both Think Djokovic Will Win The French Open, So Nadal Will Definitely Pull It Off!”
Steve Flink: “Djokovic Will Be Happy About The French Open Draw”
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