Federer Against Nadal: The Australian Open Prediction - UBITENNIS
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Federer Against Nadal: The Australian Open Prediction




Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal pictured together during the 2013 BNP Paribas Open (zimbio.com)

Length Grand Slam



No. of sets TieBreak In which set(s) was the TB?
3:02 2006 RG 4 7-6 (4)
2:58 2006 W 4 6-7(5) 7-6(2)
3:10 2007 RG 4 —-
3:45 2007 W 5 6-7(7) 6-7 (3)
1:48 2008 RG 3 —-
4:48 2008 W 5 6-7(5) 6-7(8)
4:23 2009 AO 5 7-6 (3) 3rd
3:40 2011 RG 4 7-6(3)
  Grand Slam SF at AO      
3:42 2012 AO 4 6-7(5) 7-6(5) 1st+3rd
2:24 2014 SF 3 7-6(4) 1st


 Rafa and Roger played 8 times in a Grand Slam finals, one final was in Melbourne. Furthermore, they played 2 hard-court semifinals – both at Aussie Open semifinals.

Analyzing the above listed matches, we can state the following:

1.The number of played sets are decreasing, especial at Aussie Open ;  it means in 2009 Rafa needed 5 sets to win the title, 3 years later he did in 4, in 2014, he won in 3 straight sets against Roger.

  1. Decreasing the number of sets is proportional with the length of playing time.
  2. Head-to-head in tie-break is 11-10 for Nadal. The winner of any Tie-break did not win more than 10 points in a TB.

At Australian Open, they always played at least 1 tie-break.

Having regard to the above listed 3 points:

Rafa  will win in 3 sets, and at least one set will end with a TB.

BUT, there are some circumstances (age, length of the current matches this year AO, reliability of service games, mental challenges) which will affect the outcome of the final.

It will be a surprise if the first set will not end 7-6 or 7-5…

It will be less and less chance for a 3 straight sets final because last time when the final’s runner-up (who already won at least one Australian Open) lost in 3 sets, it happened in 1985 (Wilander lost). Since that only Miroslav Mecir, Todd Martin, Carlos Moya, Marcelo Rios, Arnaud Clement, Rainer Schuettler, Marat Safin, Fernando Gonzalez, Andy Murray (3times) lost in AO final in 3 sets.

If we take the average of the numbers of sets played by Rafa and Roger in their GS final (plus AO semifinals) , the outcome will be 4.25, so it is predictable that this final will not be less than 4 sets either.

In addition, the chance for a five-setter is not so much because  they already played two 5 setters during this tournament, and it will give a burden for both players, they try to avoid the fifth set.

So we can expect 4 sets, and we are sure that we won’t see any 6-1 or 6-0 set! It is also stated that two sets can end up  7-5 and/or 7-6.

My predication is:

4 sets, length is between 2:30 and 3:30 hours, at least one TB … but the winner’s identity is still not easy to bet!

By Lorenzo Dellagiovanna

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