ATP Finals: The Possible Scenarios In The John McEnroe Ground And The Race To No.1 - UBITENNIS
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ATP Finals: The Possible Scenarios In The John McEnroe Ground And The Race To No.1

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Novak Djokovic is already qualified as first ranked player in his group. The situation is more tricky for Andy Murray. We analyze the possible scenarios regarding the potential semifinals and update the race to the number 1 spot at the end of the year.

This is the Round Robin Ranking of the 2016 ATP Finals after the first two match days.

Murray 4 (Set 4-1; Game 30-20)

Nishikori 2 (Set 3-2; Game 27-23)

Wawrinka 2 (Set 2-2; Game 19-24)

Cilic 0 (Set 0-4; Game 17-26)

Cilic has already been eliminated. Murray, Nishikori and Wawrinka are in the race for the first and second place. We refer to a previous article published on Ubittennis at the end of 2010 on the rules regarding all the possiblle scenarios in the case of a tie.

Murray and Wawrinka will square off against before the match between Nishikori and Cilic (supposing that Cilic decides to play). These are the possible scenarios of the first match.

Murray Wawrinka 2-0

Murray is ranked first with six points. Wawrinka is certainly eliminated (2 points, 2-4 set). Nishikori finishes the group in second place (even if he loses 2-0), he would be 3-4 on sets and Cilic would be 2-4)

Murray Wawrinka 2-1

Murray is ranked first with six points. Wawrinka is certainly eliminated (2 points, 3-4 set). Nishikori is certainly second (even if he loses 2-0 with Cilic, he is 3-4 on sets. He is in the lead in the head-to-head match against Wawrinka.

Murray Wawrinka 1-2

Murray is qualified (4 points, 5-3 set)

If Nishikori beats Cilic 2-0, Nishikori is first (5-2) and Murray is second (5-3). Wawrinka is eliminated (3-4).

If Nishikori beats Cilic 2-1, Murray is first (5-3 with the win in the head-to-head match against Nishikori). Nishikori is second (5-3), Wawrinka is eliminated (5-4).

If Cilic beats Nishikori, Wawrinka is first (thanks to the win in the head-to-head match against Murray), Murray is second

Murray Wawrinka 0-2

Wawrinka is qualified

If Nishikori beats Cilic 2-0, he is first (5-2), Wawrinka is second (4-2). Murray is eliminated (4-3)

If Nishikori beats Cilic 2-1, Wawrinka is first despite the defeat in the head-to-head match (4-2 set, 66.7 %)

Nishikori is second even if he won the head-to-head match (5-3 set, 62,5 % set). Murray is eliminated (4-3 set)

If Cilic beats Nishikori, Wawrinka is first thanks to the win in the head-to-head match against Murray, who finishes the group in second place. Nishikori is eliminated.

If Murray wins one set, he is qualified. If he wins the match, he is first in his group. Wawrinka needs to win the match to qualify. If he is wins 2-0, he is certainly qualified. If he wins 2-1, he needs to hope that Nishikori loses his match.

The race for the world number 1 spot (calculated on Thursday 17th November)

Murray continues to lead with 405 points in the post-Finals ranking, with 130 points in the Ranking which will determine the number 1 spot at the end of the year (the points won with the 2015 Davis Cup title expire on 28th September). Here are the combinations to be world number 1 on Monday and at the end of the year). Here we analyse the possible scenarios from the point of view of Djokovic.

  • Djokovic wins on Thursday, but he loses in the semifinal (+200 points)

+ Murray is world number 1 on Monday in any case, but to be world number 1 at the end of the year, he needs to win a match (either today’s round robin match or the semifinal).

  • Djokovic loses on Thursday, but wins in the semifinal and wins the final (+400 points)

+ Murray is certainly world number 1 on Monday, to be world number 1 at the end of the year, he needs to reach the final

  • Djokovic wins on Thursday, wins in the semifinal and loses in the final (+600 points)

+ Murray needs to win today to be world number 1 on Monday. He needs to reach the final after winning  or win the tournament after losing tomorrow to be world number 1 at the end of the year.

  • Djokovic loses on Thursday, but wins the tournament (+900 points)

+ Murray needs to reach the final after winning tomorrow to be world number 1 on Monday. He cannot be the world number 1 at the end of the year.

  • Djokovic wins on Thursday and wins the tournament (+1100 points)

+ Murray cannot be the number 1 neither on Monday nor at the end of the year

To be world number 1 on Monday, Djokovic needs to reach at least the final. If he wins the tournament, he will be certainly ranked number 1 at the end of the year.

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Iga Swiatek Demands Talks With ITF And WTA After Withdrawing From Billie Jean King Cup

Iga Swiatek is not happy with the ITF and WTA after withdrawing from the Billie Jean King Cup Finals.

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Iga Swiatek (@IgaSwi_France - Twitter)

The world number one has announced that she will not compete at the Billie Jean King Cup Finals in November after criticising tennis’ governing bodies for not looking after player welfare.

 

The event is set to take place the week after the WTA Finals in Glasgow which causes a huge problem and obstacle for many players.

This is definitely the case for Swiatek who has qualified for the WTA Finals which takes place in Texas on the 31st of October.

A huge dilemma which now means Swiatek will not compete for her country at the Billie Jean King Cup.

Speaking on Instagram the Pole criticised the decision from the ITF and WTA and wants to speak to them about player welfare to prevent future decisions from happening, “I was thinking it through a lot and discussing it with my team all over again, but I will not be able to play at the Billie Jean King Cup in Glasgow,” Swiatek said in her Instagram story.

“And it makes me sad. I’m very sorry because I play for Poland whenever it’s possible and I always give it my best. Playing in Poland this year was an honour and I hoped to do this again at the end of the season.

“I’m disappointed that tennis governing bodies didn’t come to an agreement on something as basic as the calendar of tournaments, giving us only one day to travel through the globe and changing the time zone. This situation is not safe for our health and could cause injury.

“I’m going to talk to the WTA and ITF in order to change something. This situation is difficult not only for the players like me, but mainly for the tennis fans that support our fans.”

It’s clear Swiatek wants change in terms of player welfare and communication between governing bodies on how to facilitate the schedule.

However Swiatek now turns her attention to preparing for the WTA Finals and first up for the Pole is Ostrava this week.

In her opening match Swiatek will face either Ajla Tomljanovic or Shuai Zhang.

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Cameron Norrie Withdraws From Tokyo After COVID Positive Test

Cameron Norrie will miss the rest of the Asian swing due to COVID.

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Cameron Norrie (@the_LTA - Twitter)

After withdrawing from his quarter-final in Seoul, Cameron Norrie has now withdrawn from the ATP 500 event in Tokyo.

 

The Brit’s absence from the latter stages of the ATP 250 event in South Korea, raised eyebrows with Norrie suffering from illness.

However Norrie then withdraw from the ATP 500 event in Tokyo where he was due to play Thanasi Kokkinakis.

Now his absence has been explained as Norrie confirmed on social media that he tested positive for COVID-19.

In a statement originally posted on Instagram, Norrie explained he had no symptoms but has to quarantine in his hotel room in Seoul, “Unfortunately I had a positive COVID test in Korea and wasn’t able to compete in the rest of my matches,” Norrie said.

“I have no symptoms and I am feeling 100%. It’s been a complicated situation and I appreciate the Republic of Korea trying their best to be amicable in a very tough situation.

“I was really hoping to go to Tokyo but because of the quarantine period I will not be able to play there. Looking forward to getting back to Europe for the indoors. See you guys soon!”

This is the second time Norrie has tested positive for COVID with the first time being before the start of the season.

Norrie’s scheduled next tournament will be in Stockholm which will take place on the 17th of October.

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Carlos Alcaraz Faces Rune Test In Astana

Carlos Alcaraz leads a stacked field in Astana next week.

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Carlos Alcaraz (@WeAreTennis - Twitter)

Carlos Alcaraz returns to the ATP tour next week in Astana next week where he faces Danish talent Holger Rune.

 

The world number one plays his first ATP tournament since winning his first Grand Slam title at the US Open and becoming the youngest world number one in history.

Having qualified for the Nitto ATP Finals, Alcaraz will now look to build momentum over the coming weeks for the event in Turin.

First up for Alcaraz is the ATP 500 event in Astana next week where the Spaniard faces a tough opening round in the form of Danish talent Holger Rune.

The Dane reached his first Grand Slam quarter-final at Roland Garros earlier this year but had struggled for form since then.

However Rune has reached the semi-finals in Sofia this week and is hitting form at the right time so this will be a big test for Alcaraz.

Should Alcaraz get through that test than a potential second round meeting with Stan Wawrinka could be on the cards with the Swiss wildcard facing Adrian Mannarino in his opening match.

Andrey Rublev is the player that could face Alcaraz in the last eight with the eighth seed facing a qualifier in his opening round match.

Rublev is one of a number of players who are chasing the remaining spots at the Nitto ATP Finals.

Also in the top half of the draw is Stefanos Tsitsipas and Hubert Hurkacz with Tsitsipas facing Mikhail Kukushkin.

While Hurkacz faces Francisco Cerundolo and a potential second round match against home favourite Alexander Bublik could await in round two.

In the bottom half of the draw, Novak Djokovic will continue his search for a surge up the rankings against Cristian Garin.

Djokovic’s potential quarter-final is Jannik Sinner who begins against tricky serve and volleyer Oscar Otte.

Daniil Medvedev is also taking part in a stacked field in Astana as he faces Albert Ramos-Vinolas in his opening round match.

In the bottom quarter there is also an intriguing opening round match between Felix Auger-Aliassime and Roberto Bautista Agut.

Here is the full draw with play starting on Monday:

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