If the Indian Wells Open is anything like the first part of 2016 on the WTA Tour, the world should expect the unexpected. The first three Premier tournaments of the year has been won by players ranked outside the top five (Roberta Vinci, Sara Errani and Carla Suarez Navarro). The Australian Open was no exception to the 2016 trend of shocks when top seed Serena Williams was outplayed in the final by an inspired Angelique Kerber. So what should we expect in Indian Wells?
Williams Targets Glory
Williams will be eager to regain her place as the dominant force in Women’s tennis. The 1999 Indian Wells champion ended her 10-year boycott of the tournament in 2015, where she reached the semifinals before withdrawing due to injury. In Williams’ quarter she will play either Laura Siegemund or Irina-Camelia Begu in what is expected to be a straightforward opening match. The third round could see the top seed play Kristina Mladenovic (27) for the first time in her career. The Frenchwoman has endured a roller coaster start to the year with only four main draw wins. The vulnerability in Mladenovic’s form could pave a way for the lower seeds to face Williams, which include former US Open semifinalist Peng Shuai. If Williams overcomes her third round opponent, she is projected to play Sara Errani. Unlike Williams, Errani has already won a title this year in Dubai, however, the world No.1 currently has a winning head-to-head of 9-0 over the Italian. Williams seems almost certain to feature in the later stages of the tournament, that is when we will know what kind of form she is currently in. She has the ability to deliver on the big stage but will she be able to do it in California?
Halep’s Dilemma
Defending champion Simona Halep faces a critical test in Indian Wells. Her 2016 season has been filled with disappointment after a trio of first match losses in Melbourne, Dubai and Doha. She has already dropped to fifth in the rankings due to her poor run. Another below-par run at the upcoming premier event could lead to her falling further down the rankings. The Romanian faces a tough quarter with a series of dangerous opponents. Starting her title defense against either Vania King vs Taylor Townsend. Halep could face a third round showdown with Russia’s Ekaterina Makarova. Makarova has reached the quarterfinals at the Australian Open this year and defeated Halep during their most recent meeting in Melbourne last year. Things don’t get easier for Halep as a fourth round meeting with either Venus Williams or Andrea Petkovic looms. Halep’s journey to a second consecutive title will be tough, if she hasn’t improved her game since the Dubai defeat. Don’t expect to see the defending champion in the last eight.
Kerber’s next test
Angelique Kerber seemed destined to be the next big thing in the women’s game after her outstanding display at the Australian Open where she clinched her maiden Grand Slam title. Since the Melbourne triumph, the German has endured testing times both on and off the court. Besides having a surge in media attention, she also had been troubled with a minor thigh issue that lead to her to withdrawing from Dubai as a precaution. Then at the Qatar Open, she suffered a shock second round loss Chinese world No.72 Zheng Saisai.
Indian Wells provides Kerber a chance to show to the world that her run in Melbourne wasn’t a one-off. In her first match Kerber will face the winner of the Czech first round encounter between Denisa Allertova and Petra Cetkovska. The German could then face a tricky encounter in the third round against Australian Open semi finalist Johanna Konta. Konta has also recently reached the quarterfinals of the Monterrey Open before losing to Kirsten Flipkens. The last sixteen should see her face 14th seed and nemesis Ana Ivanovic. Kerber has lost to the Serbian in their four previous meetings, however, they last played against each other in 2014.
The biggest factor for Kerber could be her mental side as suppose to physical. Since reaching back-to-back semifinals in 2012 and 2013 in Indian Wells, she has lost her first match at the event the last two years. Regarding Kerber, her mental ability is just as important as her physical.
Radwanska’s chance
Agnieszka Radwanska can be a frustrating player to both watch and play against. The Polish No.1 is one of the best defensive players in the women’s game, however, her inconsistency lets her down. Nevertheless, 2016 has seen a positive start by Radwanska. Since winning the Shenzhen Open at the start of the year, she has reached the semifinals at the Australian Open and the last four in Doha. The question isn’t how good she is. The question is can she maintain it?
Radwanka’s route in California begins with a match against former Australian Open finalist Dominika Cibulkova or qualifier Katerina Sinakova in what should be a straightforward match. In the third round she could face 32nd seed Monica Niculescu, however, Heather Watson is also a likely third round contender. Watson recently won her third WTA title in Monterrey and stunned Radwanska in Indian Wells last year with a straight sets triumph. If she survives her third round match, a fourth round meeting could be against either Svetlana Kutznetsova or Jelena Jankovic.
Unlike many of the other top players, Radwanska has a strong run of match wins this year. If she is able to play at her best, she will be a danger to everybody in draw. She proved this at last year’s WTA Finals in Singapore and there is no reason why she can’t prove it again this week.
The Other contenders
Unlike the men’s game, there is always a degree of uncertainty surrounding the likely winner of big events. Carla Suarez Navarro is currently at a ranking best of sixth in the world. Her recent performance at the Qatar Open, where she dropped only two games against Radwanska in the semifinals, impressed many. The Italian duo of Sara Errani and Rober Vinci could cause a few surprises, they have the ability to break up the games of the higher ranked players. Finally, Garbine Muguruza will be aiming high after a very average start to the year with a win-loss of 6-4 on the tour.
The full draw can be seen here.
