At the end of 2015 tennis fans and experts were happy to announce that Rafael Nadal was officially back. After the struggle, the injuries, the nerves, the 14-time Grand Slam champion closed the season in the top 5 and with a semi-final appearance at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals in London. Confident on his progresses, Rafael admitted not to be feeling those nerves that had stopped him from performing at his best during the year, those were gone for good. Anxious to put the progress into use, Nadal also proclaimed he was not going to be taking a long holiday, but rather get back to tennis to prepare the 2016 season after less than a month, to make sure to continue on the right path.
It seemed the drive and the new restless formula were working just fine with Rafael, as he started the year reaching the final in Doha. Then it seems something switched off. Looking at it, putting ourselves in Nadal’s shoes, it would be easier to understand. Working hard and making progress, seeing results kicking in, to then being trashed on court by your biggest rival in your first final of the year. That would be utterly frustrating. In the last act of the Qatar ExxonMobil Open, the Serb Novak Djokovic didn’t just beat Nadal, he dominated the court looking as if he knew before where the Spaniard would hit the next shot, as he had a game plan in mind he knew would never fail him.
Following that defeat, the season continued for Rafael with a first-round defeat at the Australian Open against Verdasco and now two semi-finals appearances on clay, at Buenos Aires and Rio de Janeiro. The comeback on clay, anticipated with an appearance in Argentina to cut the time short, has brought not titles and no finals to the undisputed king of clay. What now? The optimistic Nadal fans and tennis experts – as Rafael’s presence is an incentive to follow the sport no matter the fan base – have now started wondering. What if not even clay can get us Rafael Nadal back?
The start of 2015 against the start of 2016
It’s surprising to think that the 2015 season was for months defined as a step back for the Spaniard, considering how he failed to win a Masters 1000 title on clay and lost the second match of his career at the French Open to Djokovic. If 2015 was a step back, then 2016 could seem even more worrying. While in 2015 Nadal had reached the quarters at the Australian Open and won the title in Buenos Aires, in 2016 Rafael was upset by Dominc Thiem and Pablo Cuevas in his first two clay court appearances. It is a fact that Nadal’s 2016 season has officially started on a low note.
Suddenly talks about the future of the Spaniard have once again shifted from utter optimistic visions onto catastrophic predictions.
“If Nadal will not stay on top of the game, he will retire”
“Nadal will never win another French Open title”
“The King of Clay abdicated”
Those are just few of the quotes you can find online these days as Nadal tries to reassess his start and is probably already working on what his next moves will be.
One thing we learned from sports media is that most of the time the declarations of failing are most likely the expression of a fear of abandon. No one wants to see Rafael hang his racquet to the hook yet, no one wants to admit to themselves the end of an era is catching close. And so we proclaim the end before it hits us, to make sure we will be ready to face the reality of the sport prepared. Is this really want we need to do? Get ready for the end of Rafael Nadal?
At Ubi Tennis we prefer to see things on a more rational note…
An analysis of Rafael and his clay court game
Rafael lost two hard fought matches in Buenos Aires and in Rio de Janeiro, both being matches he could have ended up winning. For instance if Thiem’s deep forehand at deuce in Argentina was called out when the Austrian was serving down 4-5 in the third set, maybe we would be writing a very different story. More than 3 hours fought on court against Cuevas are the blatant showing of a tough match and hard fought battle.
Truth is, if Nadal had won both of these matches, titles such as “The King of Clay is back” would have resonated loud and clear on the net, welcoming the Spaniard right back. At the end of the day, Nadal could have won both matches and go ahead to win both titles, as it seemed in his cords he had the tennis to do so. But he didn’t, he lost both battles and doubts raise with wonders.
Nadal has been and surely is one of the toughest competitors on the ATP tour; someone able to fight for 5 hours and still send every ball back knowing he would have a chance to win. Has Rafael lost his fight? I don’t think so. Is he dealing with a low level of confidence? Surely. The shots are there, so is the drive, but the lack of confidence doesn’t allow the forehand to cause major damage as it used to do before. The legs don’t move as fast, under the conviction that every point isn’t lost and every ball is indeed reachable. The serve doesn’t fire on the line when it needs to do so. But Nadal is a top 5 player, why wouldn’t he be confident? Because for someone used to win titles in double digits many years, to finish a 2015 season with three titles and no major or Masters 1000 triumph hurts, as it would hurt any champion deep in his core.
After all, tennis is well known as being a very mental game, possibly the hardest sport on a mental point of view. But things can change, unexpectedly, rapidly, in one week or two days. Look at Sara Errani winning the title in Dubai. She thought she won’t make it to the tournament, was crying when down in the third set against Madison Brengle thinking she was done. Then something clicked and the Italian is back at smiling.
That is just one of the most recent cases and definitively something that could be happening to Nadal soon. It is a shot at a positivist approach to the matter, but why can’t it be like that? Why does it have to be easier to condemn and solemnly announc the end if the end is yet to come?
What could change
At the current state of things, I believe Nadal could consider something major, a big change in his routine. If Rafael doesn’t want to dire uncle Toni, what about having a legend next to him to co-work with Toni the way Becker has done with Vajda and Djokovic? Nadal has always had an immense love for tennis and its history, therefore having a champion of the past believing in him and cheering him up in his box could work as a strong incentive to get Nadal newly excited about things. It would be a fresh start without cutting the strings to his past and his habits.
Or it could be a tournament win to change Nadal’s season all over again. A Masters 1000 coming unexpected, following in the unpredictability of the sport. After all, who had seen the 2014 US Open men’s final coming? A change is always there, and Nadal wants to make sure to be there when his time will come, because it will come again.
And the confidence rebuilding will push the lift on the forehand stronger, pushing the ball higher. The legs will work faster and the determination fly high.
After all, if Rafael had a feeling he would have been done, he would have left it all and got to the nice life that awaits him with his family at home.
And yes, if that Masters 1000 win had to come somewhere, it is most likely to come on clay, because opponents do still fear him on that surface, more than anywhere else.
The season is long, the bells of worrying have rang, but if not clay, there will be something more taking Nadal back to the top. Yet, again…