[1] SERENA WILLIAMS (USA #1) vs. [7] ANGELIQUE KERBER (GER #6)
Head to Head: SERENA WILLIAMS leads 5-1
2014 HARD O F SERENA WILLIAMS 80 mins STANFORD 7-6(1) 6-3
2014 HARD O QF SERENA WILLIAMS 63 mins MIAMI 6-2 6-2
2013 HARD I R1 SERENA WILLIAMS 65 mins WTA FINALS 6-3 6-1
2012 HARD I R1 SERENA WILLIAMS 78 mins WTA FINALS 6-4 6-1
2012 HARD O QF CINCINNATI ANGELIQUE KERBER 76 mins 6-4 6-4
2007 HARD O R1 SERENA WILLIAMS n/a US OPEN 6-3 7-5
It is the final day for women’s singles at the Australian Open. After today, we will know who the 2016 Australian Open champion will be on the women’s side. World No.1 Serena Williams faces World No. 6 Angelique Kerber. If Serena wins the title she will conquer her 7th Australian Open trophy, her 22nd Grand Slam title, tying Steffi Graf for most singles major titles in the Open Era. If Angelique wins, she will win her maiden Slam title becoming the first German since Graf in 1994 to win the title in Melbourne. The last German to win a major title was once again Graf, who won at Wimbledon in 1999.
No matter who wins, history for women’s tennis will be made once again on Rod Laver Arena in Australia.
Watching the Head-2-Head between the two finalists it’s easy to understand which player starts the match as the favourite. Serena has beaten Kerber 5 out of 6 times, every time in straight sets. The only defeat for the American came in 2012, in Cincinnati, when Williams lost in straight sets to the German playing a match below par.
Here the highlights of the only match won by Kerber against Williams:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G8LnD0wGh4Q
Here instead we show the highlights of the last match played between the two and won by Serena in straight sets in Stanford in 2014.
Why Serena has the tennis to edge Kerber?
Watching these two matches it’s easy to understand why the American would tend to have the edge over the German. While Kerber is a player who likes to engage in the exchange and battle out the points, Williams is the kind of aggressive contestant that wants to close out the rally within 5 shots. Clearly, when Serena is on a roll she tends to take command of the operations with her serve and return. As seen against Radwanska in the semi-finals – a player who is considered one of the best defenders on the tour just like the German – if Williams is on a good day, she literally leaves no time to her opponents to organise a countermove. Aga herself revealed there wasn’t much she could have done to avoid the 6-0 defeat in the first set, nothing she could do when the American was hardly missing a ball and pressuring her constantly.
If Serena plays the same way she has against Radwanska, than this Australian Open final will hardly be decided in three sets. If Kerber can manage to prolong the rallies, use her forehand down the line to take Serena off-guard and can serve well (Angelique needs her first serve), then there is a chance this match could turn out to be a battle. Both possible outcomes, it still seems like the World No.1 would seem to be the favourite to win.
What can beat Serena tonight in Melbourne is Serena herself. We have seen how the American can loose her cool and surrender to nerves when closing down on tennis history. At the US Open Williams was hardly able to produce winners on her backhand when losing in three sets against Roberta Vinci, only three sets shy of a calendar Grand Slam achievement.
Can Serena show up tense and nervous just like in New York last September?
One thing Williams has learned from that match is that she can’t let pressure get into her way and has also developed a new zen approach to her career, meaning that she feels she has nothing to prove to the world anymore, having won far more than she would have expected for herself in the first place. That mental approach proved to be working pretty well so far for the American in Melbourne. Because of that it is unlikely that Serena will manage to play as below par as in that semi-final she lost against Vinci at the US Open.
What is it that Kerber can do to win?
First of all, the German has to hope Serena will feel the weight of history on her shoulders once again, feeling the nerves. Secondly, Angelique has to step on court knowing she herself will have no room for mistakes or nerves. Playing in your first Grand Slam final can be tricky for any player, but Kerber has reached the feat at 28 years of age, in a stage of her career where she has already learned what it takes to seize an opportunity. Angelique will have to play aggressive rather than rely on her defence. She will have to use her forehand down the line as much as possible, being ready to cover the far right angle as Williams likes to hit full power cross court on her forehand when she is pushed on the run on her right side. Angelique will also have to make sure she has at least 75% of first serves on court, as her second serve would be too vulnerable against Williams. Kerber will have to play her best tennis for two entire sets, with no room for mistakes.
What is the final prediction?
Serena has fought and failed to achieve history before, a lesson she has learned and won’t need to be taught again. The American should be able to use her experience in Grand Slam finals and use her serve and return to edge Kerber in straight sets, to win Grand Slam No.22.
That said, nerves can play a part and because of that there is a chance Angelique will win a set, but hardly more than that.
