Rod Laver Arena
Serena Williams (USA) vs. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)
Serena has won 25 of her 29 Grand Slam semi-finals matches, including the last shocking defeat she faced against Roberta Vinci at the US Open. If Serena has learned something from that match is that she can never allow nerves get in her way and has probably been working hard on the mental aspect of her game. So much so that despite not having played a single match since that defeat to the Italian in New York, she has reached the last four without dropping a single set. In the second set played against Sharapova in the quarters, the American was simply unplayable. She would take the time away from the Russian with her serve and return, playing so hard and fast that she redefined the rules of aggression in women’s tennis.
On the other side of the net Williams finds a player she has never lost to in 8 previous matches, but also the only player who has played a tournament before Melbourne being still undefeated. Most importantly, Radwanska is the player that has won the most matches since the US Open were over in September 2015. Aga has won the WTA Finals and has looked increasingly more convincing on court, managing to play her mix of speed and pace more efficient than ever.
Radwanska has won the most since the last Slam of the year (27 matches and 4 titles), but Serena wasn’t around. Now that she is and she decided to finally take the positive out of her defeat to Vinci, the American is fully focused for every single match she plays. If Williams competes the way she did in the last set against Sharapova, Radwanska will hardly win a set against the World No.1, because she will not have the time to organise her strategies on court.
If nerves are to play a part in this match, then Williams could lose a set, but should win in three. After all, Serena has never lost a semi-final in Melbourne before, not even when she faced match points against Clijsters and Sharapova when she won her first two titles in Melbourne.
Prediction: Williams in 3
Angelique Kerber (GER) vs. Johanna Konta (GBR)
Kerber and Konta have never met before on the tour. With their first meeting also the first ever Grand Slam final for one of them will be at stake. It is a moment that will define the career of whoever wins tonight. Kerber has been in the semi-finals of a Grand Slam before, in 2011 and in 2012, losing respectively to Stosur and Radwanksa, but fighting both times. In those two occasions, Angelique approached the matches with nothing to lose, being the underdog. In 2011 she was ranked below the 90th place in the rankings, and won a tight match against Italian Flavia Pennetta in the quarters, with the Italian who succumbed to the fear of losing and to Kerber’s for her unexpected brilliance and game. At Wimbledon, the German was already a top 10 player (No.8) but was facing No.3 Radwanska who was playing her best tennis on grass.
For the first time Angelique will have a shot at trying to achieve her dream of a major final being the clear favourite to win the match. That is a tricky position to be in and she knows. Already in her press conference after beating Azarenka, Kerber affirmed it doesn’t matter who the opponent of the match will be, but it looked as if she was trying to convince herself in the first place. How many times does an occasion like this presents itself in the life of a tennis player? Playing a semi-final against someone ranked outside the top 40? Not many times, and that means pressure.
On the other end, Konta has clearly nothing to lose. She has become the first Brit in almost 40 years to reach a major semi-final and she did so beating tough competition such as Venus Williams in the first round. Already last year at the US Open Johanna had impressed with her ability to deal with stress and pressure and with her game of talented timing and progression. Konta likes to play against top 10 players, being 4-2 in her career and having beaten already Muguruza and Halep, when the two were at their best rankings.
The match could end up being very entertaining to watch, hopefully a three-set battle. Considering what is at stake and what can happen in women’s tennis, it is worth to take a risk and say Konta will win in three sets to become a surprise Slam finalist.
Prediction: Konta in 3
Novak Djokovic (SRB) vs. Roger Federer (SUI)
All eyes will be on this match tonight. Two times a Grand Slam decider last year, at Wimbledon and the US Open, a semi-final this year. If Novak Djokovic manages to beat Federer, he will hold the lead in the head-2-head against the Swiss for the very fist time in his career. At the moment the two are tied at 22-22, and the Serb eyes the special record against a living tennis legend like the Swiss.
The match would be easy to predict if we thing of the level of tennis Novak Djokovic has been playing at over the last 13 months. The Serb literally dominated the entire 2015 season, looking unapproachable, unbeatable. Then Novak started 2016 following in the footsteps of the previous year, if not better, conquering the title in Doha outplaying Nadal in the final. At the Australian Open the Serb had a short low against Gilles Simon, needing 5 sets to win a match he was expected to win easily. As many started to raise questions on his level, he took a day off practiced and grinded Kei Nishikori in the quarter-finals. Clearly, Novak hasn’t let doubts turn into pressure and has the confidence he needs approaching the matchup with the Swiss.
Considering only the matches the two played in 2015, Djokovic leads the Head-2-Head by 5-3. That result is symptomatic of a nice equilibrium and interesting rivalry, but doesn’t highlight the fact that Novak won all the matches that mattered the most. The Wimbledon final, the US Open final, the ATP Finals last act in London. Three titles won that turn a season into an immense success, three titles which determined Novak’s dominance on the rest of the field.
There is however an interesting record to watch out for closely. Federer and Djokovic are now used to play one another only in the finals of big events, but when the Swiss wasn’t following the Serb as World No.2, the semi-finals or Round Robin matches have been won most of the time by Roger. To find Djokovic able to beat Federer in the semi-finals of a tournament we have to go back to 2013, when the Serb defeated the Swiss in a Round Robin match played in London. Before that Novak had also beaten Roger in the semis of the Masters 1000 of Paris in the same year. Since 2014, Federer has beaten Djokovic all four times the two met before the final.
Let’s then have a look at the Head-2-Head between the two in major semifinals:
2008 Australian Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 75 63 76(5)
2008 US Open Hard (O) SF Federer 63 57 75 62
2009 US Open Hard (O) SF Federer 76(3) 75 75
2010 US Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 57 61 57 62 75
2011 Australian Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 76(3) 75 64
2011 Roland Garros Clay (O) SF Federer 76(5) 63 36 76(5)
2011 US Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 67(7) 46 63 62 75
2012 Roland Garros Clay(O) SF Djokovic 64 75 63
2012 Wimbledon Grass (O) SF Federer 63 36 64 63
Djokovic leads the Head-2-Head in major semi-finals against Federer by 5 wins to 4. If these results can work as a predicted outcome for tonight’s match, than we can hope for high quality tennis considering how these two seem to find their best tennis when playing against one another for a spot in the final of a major event. The semi won by Federer at the French Open in 2011 and the semi won by Djokovic at the US Open of the same year are two of the most intense and beautiful battles we have seen in tennis for a while.
Speaking of Federer he looked so far flawless in the tournament, facing tough opponents such as Goffin, Dolgopolov, Dimitrov and Berdych only losing one set and looking almost as flying on court with grace and aggression. Clearly Roger has found his best form in this tournament and has a chance of battling for a place in the final.
Last year we have seen Federer underperforming in the finals he played against the Serb compared to what he had shown previously in the tournaments he ended up not winning. The fact that this match will be a semi-final, could give Federer the mental tranquillity he needs to play swinging freely.
If the Swiss manages to achieve that, than he truly has a shot at winning this match.
In what we hope will be the match of the tournament, Roger Federer has a chance to win the match in 4 sets. If the clash gets to a 5th, then Djokovic will win it.
Prediction: Federer in 4
Novak Djokovic Saves The Day In This Australian Open
It’s a good thing the Aussies allowed Novak Djokovic to stay in Melbourne this year.
Otherwise, the young crowd of players might have taken over completely in this Australian Open. After all, Rafa Nadal, Andy Murray, Daniil Medvedev and Iga Swiatek among others didn’t stick around very long.
Novak is saving the day Down Under for the great ones.
This is an Australian Open unlike any in recent years. It’s almost like the Australian Open, with its usual midnight to early-morning Eastern Time matches has taken a step backward in world tennis.
American fans apparently no longer can watch those great matches that start at 3 a.m. or 4:30 a.m. ET, except on ESPN+.
AUSTRALIAN OPEN LOST IN THE SHUFFLE
This Australian Open appears to be kind of lost in the shuffle this January, virtually taking away its major status.
In the absence of those early-morning battles, I guess it’s okay that most of the top men and women other than Novak, Stefanos Tsitsipas, Andrey Rublev, Tommy Paul, Elena Rybakina and Jessie Pegula have sang their Aussie songs and headed elsewhere, except maybe for doubles.
Don’t overlook the tall Russian Rybakina on the women’s side. She’s two wins away from her second Grand Slam title, having upended the top-ranked Swiatek in the round of 16 and then taking care of former French Open champion Jelena Ostapenko in the quarterfinals.
ALMOST LIKE A COLLEGE EVENT
Ben Shelton and J.J. Wolf are certainly outstanding American college level talents that came racing out of the winter red-hot.
But like MacKenzie McDonald, who thrashed an unprepared Nadal with a college-like all-power game only to falter the next round against a journeyman player like Yoshihito Nishioka, it’s doubtful that either Shelton or Wolf can stand the test of the only great one left — Djokovic.
In the long run, Shelton especially and Wolf likely will be stars. But these newcomers aren’t likely to hit the tour with the greatness that Carlos Alcaraz displayed when he was healthy during the last half of 2022.
WATCH FOR THE OTHER STARS AFTER AUSTRALIA
Other stars from last year such as Jannik Sinner, Cameron Norrie, Casper Ruud, Matteo Berrettini, Nick Kyrgios, Denis Shapovalov, Alexander Zverev and Felix Auger-Aliassime will make their own noise once the tour hits Europe and America.
As far as Americans other than Paul, I like the looks of young Jenson Brooksby, who upended the second-ranked Ruud in the second round. The 22-year-old Brooksby looks like a future star, that is if he gets in better physical condition.
Thus, Novak appears to be an almost certainty to sweep to his 22nd major title in an event that has been his own private playground for much of his career. That shouldn’t change on Sunday in the Australian Open final.
James Beck was the 2003 winner of the USTA National Media Award for print media. A 1995 MBA graduate of The Citadel, he can be reached at Jamesbecktennis@gmail.com.
A Dream Week For Holger Rune In Paris
Across the springtime of 2022 and culminating at the end of summer, a 19-year-old Spaniard named Carlos Alcaraz made history of the highest order in his profession.
Alcaraz was astonishing during that span, establishing himself as the first teenager in the men’s game since Rafael Nadal at Roland Garros in 2005 to capture a major when he took the U.S. Open title. This electrifying performer now resides at No.1 in the world and will probably conclude the year at the top despite an abdominal injury preventing him from competing at the season-ending ATP Finals in Turin.
To be sure, Alcaraz has been the sport’s “Man of the Year” in so many ways. And yet, a fellow teenager has now joined the Spaniard in the top ten, and that surely is no mean feat.
Denmark’s Holger Rune celebrated the most stupendously successful week of his career by improbably toppling the six-time champion Novak Djokovic to win the Rolex Paris Masters crown. Rune upended the game’s greatest front runner with a final round triumph he will surely remember for the rest of his life. Somehow, despite being in one precarious position after another—and finding himself dangerously low on oxygen at the end— Rune fended off a tennis icon who had swept 13 matches in a row over the autumn. Rune upended an unwavering yet apprehensive Djokovic 3-6, 6-3, 7-5 to garner his first Masters 1000 title. The grit and gumption he displayed on this auspicious occasion was ample evidence that he authentically has a champion’s mentality, a wealth of talent and a reservoir of courage that must be deeply admired.
It was a fascinating contest from beginning to end. Djokovic was unstoppable in the first set, breaking Rune in the fourth game when the precocious Dane served two double faults which seemed largely caused by overzealousness. Djokovic won 21 of 26 points on serve, nursed the one break he got very professionally, and outmaneuvered Rune time and again from the backcourt. His controlled aggression was first rate. Serving for that opening set at 5-3, Djokovic closed it out at love.
He then reached 0-40 on the Rune serve in the opening game of the second set, but squandered that opportunity flagrantly with an errant backhand passing shot, a netted forehand second serve return and a cautious overhead that eventually cost him the point. Rune held on sedulously, and soon moved to 3-0. That opening game was critical, changing the complexion of the set and allowing Rune to believe he was in with a chance.
Rune held serve the rest of the way to make it one set all. But, once more, Djokovic took command. He broke the Dane for a 3-1 third set lead when Rune went for broke on a big second serve down the T and double faulted. Djokovic sought to cement his advantage in the fifth game, opening up a 30-0 lead and later advancing to 40-30. He stood one point away from a 4-1 lead which might have proved insurmountable, but Rune made the Serbian pay for a backhand approach lacking sting and direction, passing Djokovic cleanly down the line off the backhand.
Rune managed crucially to break back, closing the gap to 3-2 and denying Djokovic a hold he should have had. Djokovic was visited at the changeover by the trainer, who attended to a left quad issue that was burdening the Serbian. But thereafter Djokovic seemed physically fine and appeared to be wearing Rune down. Leading 4-3, Djokovic pressed hard for a break, but again Rune obstinately stood his ground and came up with the goods in the clutch.
There were two deuces in that eighth game, but the Dane refused to allow Djokovic to reach break point. On both deuce points, the 19-year-old unleashed dazzling backhand winners down the line before holding on gamely. The set went to 5-5, and Rune’s opportunism was again showcased. Djokovic was ahead 30-0 but Rune collected four points in a row to seal the break, taking the last two on unprovoked mistakes from Djokovic.
And so Rune served for the match in the twelfth game of the third set with a 6-5 lead. His lungs were almost empty as Djokovic probed time and again to climb into a tie-break. It was hard to imagine if Djokovic managed to break back that Rune would be able to stay with him in that playoff. He was exhausted from the mental, emotional and physical strain of the hard fought third set.
Six times in that last game Djokovic stood at break point, but he could not convert. Rune’s temerity when it counted was almost breathtaking. He erased the first break point by lacing a forehand down the line for a winner, and then benefitted from a shocking Djokovic netted running forehand on the second. Then Djokovic had complete control on his third break point, only to send a backhand drop shot into the net.
Rune remained unrelenting, saving the fourth break point with an overhead winner, and erasing the fifth when Djokovic pulled a backhand pass wide with a clear opening. Rune reached match point for the first time but his explosive second serve landed long for a double fault. Djokovic advanced to break point for the sixth and last time, only to be stymied by a service winner from the Dane. Soon Rune was at match point for the second time, and he closed out the account stylishly with a forehand pass at the feet of Djokovic, who was coaxed into a netted half volley. For the first time ever in 31 Masters 1000 tournament finals, Djokovic had lost after securing the opening set. Walking on court with Rune in Paris, Djokovic’s career record overall after winning the first set was 891-38 (just shy of 96%), which is a higher success rate than any other male player in the Open Era.
Through nearly the entire last game of the encounter, Rune knew full well he had to finish it off there. Djokovic was well aware that his opponent was physically spent. Both players understood that the match was totally on the line; Djokovic would almost surely have prevailed in the tie-break had they gone there. For Djokovic, the loss was disappointing but not necessarily devastating. He put himself in a position to win twice, but did not realize his goal.
Yet he recognized that perhaps the match he played in the penultimate round against Stefanos Tsitsipas had taken a toll on him mentally. He had crushed Tsitsipas in the first set. From 2-2 in the first set he won five games in a row and then had a 0-30 lead on the Greek competitor’s serve early in the second set. Tsitsipas escaped and stretched Djokovic to his limits before the Serbian came through from a mini-break down at 3-4 in the third set tie-break to win four points in a row. Djokovic was victorious 6-2, 3-6, 7-6 (4) but that victory required an inordinate amount of emotional energy.
An exuberant Rune was ready to pounce if given the opportunity. He did just that.
In fact, Rune set a Masters 1000 tournament record with five wins over players ranked in the top ten. His Paris indoor journey started when he fought back valiantly to defeat Stan Wawrinka 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (3), saving three match points in the process (two in the second set, one in the third). After that escape, Rune stopped Hubert Hurkacz 7-5, 6-1, Andrey Rublev 6-4, 7-5, Alcaraz 6-3, 6-6 retired, Felix Auger-Aliassime 6-4 6-2 and then Djokovic.
Rune’s dynamic rise into the top ten has not happened by accident. He has won 19 of his last 21 matches, appearing in four consecutive ATP Tour finals during that remarkable span. He was beaten in the title round contest at Sofia by Marc-Andrea Huesler, won Stockholm over Tsitsipas, lost to Auger-Aliassime in the Basel final and now is the Rolex Paris Masters champion. Auger-Aliassime had won three straight titles before Rune stopped him in Paris. Djokovic had not lost since Auger-Aliassime defeated him at the Laver Cup. Rune refused to be intimidated by the size of their reputations and the strength of their recent records.
Rune wisely decided to skip the Next Gen ATP Finals this week in Milan. He will fittingly be the first alternate for the Nitto ATP Finals coming up in Turin starting on November 13. I have no doubt he will be ranked among the top five in the world by this time next year, and perhaps even reside among the top three. What impressed me the most in his match with Djokovic was his adaptability. Although Djokovic often set the tempo in that duel, Rune’s tactical skills were outstanding. At times he looped forehands and sent soft and low sliced backhands over the net to prevent Djokovic from feeding off of his pace. In other instances, Rune hit out freely and knocked the cover off the ball. He constantly shifted his strategy and Djokovic could not easily anticipate what was coming next. Rune employed the backhand down the line drop shot skillfully as another tool to keep Djokovic off guard.
No one in the game opens up the court better than Rune to set up forehand winners produced with a shade of sidespin that fade elusively away from his adversaries. Djokovic was the only player all week in Paris to comfortably return Rune’s serve, but on the big points Rune had an uncanny knack for finding the corners and landing big first serves. He saved ten of twelve break points against Djokovic. Moreover, he converted all three of his break points against a renowned opponent. Djokovic broke him twice but Rune would have lost his serve three more times if he had not performed mightily when his plight looked bleak.
What was most demonstrable at the Rolex Paris Masters was Rune’s propensity to play with immense poise under pressure. Not only did he survive that skirmish with the three time major champion Wawrinka in the opening round, but he somehow overcame Djokovic despite winning five fewer points across the three sets (97 to 92). Rune played the biggest points better than one of the most formidable match players of all time. He is a highly charged young player who has rubbed some players the wrong way with his high intensity bouts of abrasiveness on the court, but his comportment in Paris was very impressive and he did not put a foot out of line during his appointment with Djokovic. He handled the occasion awfully well under the circumstances.
In the weeks and months ahead, Rune will become a target of lesser ranked players looking to enlarge their reputations by virtue of striking down more accomplished adversaries. He will feel a different kind of pressure when he moves through the 2023 season in search of the premier prizes. But this is an enormously ambitious individual who is reminiscent of Alcaraz in terms of his outlook, sense of self, and mentality. They may well develop a stirring rivalry over the next five to ten years that will captivate galleries all over the world. Throw Auger-Aliassime into the mix with Alcaraz and Rune as well.
Tennis will be in exceedingly good shape in the years ahead. Djokovic remains in the forefront of the sport and he is a very young 35. The 36-year-old Nadal is not yet done by any means. But the younger generation is upon us, and it is apparent that Holger Rune is going to take his place among the game’s most illustrious players with increasing force, persuasion and urgency.
Where Does Roger Federer Rank In The History Of Tennis?
Hall of Fame tennis historian Steve Flink provides a detailed look into the Swiss Maestro’s career and how it compares against his two bigger rivals.
Now that several weeks have elapsed since Roger Federer bid farewell to big time tennis at the age of 41 in a losing, yet somehow triumphant, Laver Cup doubles performance alongside Rafael Nadal in London, the time has come to examine the Swiss Maestro’s lofty place in history.
He celebrated an astonishing career, scaling the heights over and over again across his prime, playing the game professionally for nearly a quarter of a century, setting the highest standards as both a shotmaker and a sportsman, and establishing himself for a multitude of reasons as the most popular player ever to pick up a racket—man or woman—in the modern history of the game.
Federer was the consummate professional, but also a tennis artist, gliding around the court effortlessly and releasing winners that seemed frequently lifted straight out of dreams. He was not simply an outstanding champion who was vastly underestimated as a competitor, but a virtuoso performer who gave galleries in every corner of the globe an immense amount of pleasure with his arresting elegance, from his signature inside-out forehand, to his sweepingly beautiful backhand, to his textbook conventional volleys along with his dazzling swing volley, to the exquisite serve that was his most reliable and important weapon.
His career was sublime. Federer captured 103 tournaments altogether in singles, taking 71 of those titles on hard courts, 19 on grass, 11 on clay, and two on indoor carpet. He finished five seasons (2004-07 and 2009) as the No. 1 ranked player in the world and spent no fewer than 310 weeks at the top, including 237 consecutive weeks of preeminence during his heyday. At 36 in 2018, he became the oldest man ever to reside at No. 1 in the world.
Moreover, he concluded 14 years in a row (2002-2015) among the top six in the world. Thereafter, he ended another four years (2017-2020) among the top five. His first year-end finish in the top ten was 2002 and his last was 2020, which was irrefutable evidence of his enduring excellence.
There is more, of course. Federer collected 20 Grand Slam tournament titles (one less than Novak Djokovic, two behind Rafael Nadal), amassing a record eight men’s singles crowns at Wimbledon, securing six Australian Open victories, winning the U.S. Open five times and ruling at Roland Garros once. In the heart of his prime, Federer pulled off a unique men’s feat by prevailing at the sport’s two most prestigious tournaments five years in a row, doing so at Wimbledon (2003-2007) and the U..S. Open (2004-2008). It was in the same span that he was unassailable at the majors. From 2004-2007 he managed to majestically collect 11 of the 16 Grand Slam titles.
That was consistency of the highest order, but the astonishing reliability he exhibited as a towering champion is amplified by the following achievements—between 2004 and 2010 he was a semifinalist or better in 23 straight major tournaments. Moreover, Federer made it (at least) to 36 consecutive quarterfinals at the four premier events in tennis from 2004 until 2013. To be sure, Federer set himself apart with his capacity to make stellar showings time and again across the years when it counted irrevocably in the places of prestige. Throw into the mix this additional proof of his stature: Federer’s astounding career match record was 1251-275.
And yet, Federer happened to belong to a splendid era in which he shared the spotlight with two other iconic figures who both made him better and yet were burdensome for the Swiss Maestro in many ways. Federer commenced his illustrious rivalry with Nadal in 2004, and they last clashed in 2019. Their crackling forty match series was highlighted by an astonishing stretch from 2006-2008 when they collided in three consecutive French Open and Wimbledon finals.
The dynamic Spaniard was victorious in all three appointments at Roland Garros on a surface where he was nearly unbeatable, while Federer—the King of the Lawns—toppled Nadal twice at the All England Club before falling gallantly against the southpaw in a five set 2008 epic contest that will live longer in our hearts and minds than any of their other memorable skirmishes.
They would also split two remarkable Australian Open five set finals in Melbourne, with Nadal coming out on top in the former (2009) and Federer prevailing in the latter (2017). That 2017 triumph was surely the most gratifying triumph of Federer’s career as he rallied from 1-3 down in the fifth set to sweep five games in a row with a shotmaking smorgasbord, most notably driving through his topspin backhand with a flair and certitude that was strikingly impressive and better than anything he had ever produced off that side to counter the Spaniard’s fabled heavy topspin forehand.
Federer found confronting Nadal to be the most daunting stylistic challenge of his career. Toward the end of 2015, Nadal held a commanding 23-10 lead in his head-to-head series with the Swiss, but Federer was the victor in six of his last seven duels with the Spaniard, and so the final tally was 24-16 in favor of Nadal. More importantly, Nadal bested Federer in six of nine final round meetings at the majors.
Enter Novak Djokovic. In the first five years of his rivalry with Federer from 2006-2010, the Serbian trailed 13-6. But Djokovic started soaring to another level in his banner year of 2011. From that point on, he had the upper hand in a riveting series with the Swiss. He took 21 of their last 31 matches to finish with a 27-23 winning record over Federer. Federer stopped Djokovic the first time they met in a major final at the 2007 U.S. Open, but thereafter Djokovic won all four title round encounters versus his revered adversary, including three Wimbledon finals (2014, 2015 and 2019) and one at the U.S. Open (2015). Not to be overlooked, Djokovic rallied from double match point down thrice against Federer, realizing that extraordinary feat in the semifinals of the U.S. Open in 2010 and 2011 as well as the riveting Wimbledon final of 2019, recording all three of those comeback victories in five sets.
And so Federer concluded his career with a losing record against his two foremost rivals. To be sure, Nadal is five years younger than Federer and Djokovic is six years younger. That must be taken into account because Federer’s zenith was across his twenties. The fact remains that Federer was struggling to solve the riddle of Nadal when the Swiss was in his twenties, but he did exceedingly well against the Spaniard during his thirties. Meanwhile, he had a much tougher time against Djokovic in the same span. It is hard to fully measure the impact of the age discrepancy between Federer and his two chief rivals.
Djokovic, for instance, has won nine of his 21 majors since turning 30, while Nadal has secured eight of his record 22 Grand Slam titles since he became 30. Federer had to settle for four more majors after he made it to age 30, capturing 16 of his 20 Grand Slam Championships over the course of his twenties.
Consequentially, Federer ended his career unfavorably against his two foremost rivals across the board and at the premier tournaments which are the authentic barometer in determining the relative greatness of iconic players. The view here is that this measuring stick must be valued very highly when examining the ultimate historical impact of a trio who defined an incomparable era with their vast array of achievements.
At one time, Federer seemed certain to surpass Djokovic and Nadal in the Grand Slam title race, but ultimately he was overtaken first by Nadal at the 2022 Australian Open and later by Djokovic at Wimbledon this past year. He has captured more total tournaments than his primary adversaries with his remarkable 103 crowns. But even that mark is in jeopardy. Nadal currently stands at 92 titles with Djokovic close behind at 90. At the very least, there won’t be much separating these three men on this statistical terrain.
Undoubtedly, Federer summoned everything he could for nearly a quarter of a century to bring out the best in himself and attain his highest goals. He kept himself in the thick of things as one of the leading players for a remarkably long time. At his best, he was the most daunting of all competitors in his time, primarily because his serve-forehand combination was so frequently unanswerable. He also was the most multi-faceted man of his generation, more natural at the net than his chief adversaries, an inventive conquerer on the tennis court with the widest arsenal and largest imagination among the “Big Three”, and a supremely cagey competitor with the widest range of options.
But, looking at Federer historically, he must be judged above all else on his record. It is scintillating, marked by a multitude of stupendous accomplishments, highlighted by a degree of creativity neither Nadal or Djokovic could match, showcased by the composure he exhibited just about every time he stepped on a court.
The fact remains that—at least in my view—Federer’s numbers in their entirety fall marginally short of Nadal’s and Djokovic’s. They won more majors than the Swiss, mastered Federer in most of the biggest matches they contested against him, and already they have almost matched his longevity. No one has displayed the uninterrupted consistency of Nadal in the official ATP Rankings. This 2022 season will be his 18th in a row finishing among the top ten on the planet. Only twice in that span has he not completed a year residing in the top five.
Nadal has matched Federer’s feat of ending five years at No. 1, and has an outside chance of wrapping up this year at the top, although that is unlikely. As for Djokovic, he not only has spent by far the most weeks at No.1, but he also holds the all-time men’s ATP record by establishing himself as the year-end No. 1 seven times, breaking the old mark set by Pete Sampras (1993-98). He, too, has been strikingly dependable. Djokovic is almost certain to conclude 2022 in the top ten for the 15th time in the last 16 years.
The case for Nadal as the greatest player of his era, and perhaps the finest of all time, rests on his record number of 22 majors, an astounding 14-0 record in French Open finals, the best win-loss mark in major finals of the trio at 22-8, and his staggering superiority on clay, the surface on which he has won 63 of his 92 career singles crowns.
Critics would contend that there is an imbalance in Nadal’s career credits regarding surface variety because the bulk of his success has come on clay, but the fact remains that he joins Djokovic as the only players since Rod Laver claimed a second Grand Slam in 1969 to win all four majors at least twice. Nadal, however, is the only member of the esteemed trio to secure an Olympic gold medal in singles, triumphing on the hard courts in Beijing fourteen years ago to earn that distinction. On the opposite side of the ledger, Nadal has collected only two career titles indoors and has never won the Nitto ATP Finals, perhaps the fifth most important tournament in men’s tennis. Federer flourished under a roof, winning 26 indoor championships including a record six ATP Finals victories. Djokovic has amassed 16 indoor titles, taking the ATP Finals five times.
Nadal falls well short of Federer in terms of surface flexibility, but Djokovic does not. Some longtime tennis authorities believe Federer’s clay court credentials equal or surpass those of Djokovic, but I don’t agree. Djokovic has taken the French Open title twice (2016 and 2021), while Federer ruled at Roland Garros only once (in 2009). The Swiss lost four French Open finals to Nadal while Djokovic has been beaten by the Spaniard three times in title round meetings on the Parisian clay.
But there is a wide gap in what the Serbian and the Swiss have accomplished overall on clay. Djokovic has captured 18 titles on the dirt, seven more than Federer. In addition, Djokovic has won the Italian Open—universally regarded as the second most significant clay court tournament—no less than six times, while Federer never won in Rome. Djokovic has won the highly regarded Monte Carlo Masters 1000 event twice. Federer was unable to secure that crown. Both players have been victorious at the Madrid Masters 1000 tournament on three occasions. Djokovic’s clay court record across the board is decidedly better than Federer’s.
Many experts believe Djokovic is the finest hard court player of his time, with 64 of his 90 titles taken on that surface, including a record nine Australian Opens on top of three U.S. Opens. But he also may equal or perhaps surpass Federer’s sparkling Wimbledon record; with seven titles, the Serbian is only one title shy of the Swiss at the shrine of the sport. He will surely have a few more good opportunities to prosper on the lawns of London.
While this piece has focussed solely on the “Big Three” and where they belong on the lofty ladder of history, comparing these luminaries to the game’s greatest players across all generations through a longer lens is unavoidable. We must not ignore Bill Tilden, a towering figure in the 1920’s who won ten majors and advanced the game immeasurably with his tactical wizardry. Don Budge was the first player ever to win all four majors in a single season (1938) for a Grand Slam. Jack Kramer was the best player of the 1940’s and the first half of the fifties and the author of the so-called “Big Game”.
Richard “Pancho” Gonzalez reshaped the game over the second half of the fifties and well beyond. And then, of course, the left-handed Rod Laver won two Grand Slams in the 1960’s with his golden array of shots. Put Lew Hoad into the conversation when recollecting his supreme power and grace in the late 1950’s. Others celebrate Sweden’s Bjorn Borg for his eleven major title runs in the seventies and early eighties and his undervalued three year reign as the French Open and Wimbledon champion (1978-80) when there was more of a disparity between the clay and the grass. Across the nineties and beyond, Pete Sampras stamped his authority on the sport, finishing a record six straight years (1993-98) at No. 1 in the world and capturing 14 Grand Slam tournaments. Believed by most experts to be the best server in the history of the game and an unflappable competitor, Sampras controlled the climate of the game in his era regally.
The G.O.A.T. Debate is awfully difficult and, for that matter, impossible to resolve, but this much is certain: Federer, Djokovic and Nadal are all worthy candidates. All three stood the test of time, and scaled the heights of the sport for long periods. Each of them has sweepingly changed the face of the game—Federer with his masterful craftsmanship, Djokovic with his incomparable return of serve and elastic athleticism, Nadal with his whirlwind topspin and indomitable spirit.
Federer will be regarded as the most heralded member of the trio, as a singularly elegant shotmaker and transcendent tennis champion. In fact, he is arguably the most revered sports figure of the 21st Century. People who hardly followed sports at all knew who he was and wanted to get at least a glimpse of him playing his sport as aesthetically as it could be done. He will be remembered as well for being an outstanding sportsman who conducted himself almost unfailingly with extraordinary dignity in the public arena, simultaneously competing with quiet fury.
But, in my view, Roger Federer was outdone by his two chief rivals in their absorbing three way battle for supremacy. He celebrated one of the great careers in tennis history, but in the final analysis—the way I see it—he is not the best to ever play the game, nor the standout player of his era, despite his prodigious accomplishments. And yet, in the ultimate analysis, Federer will live longer in our collective imaginations with his rare combination of style and substance, his grace under pressure and his capacity to inspire audiences completely wherever he played in the world.
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