Rod Laver Arena
Serena Williams (USA)[1] vs. Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)[4]
Serena has won 25 of her 29 Grand Slam semi-finals matches, including the last shocking defeat she faced against Roberta Vinci at the US Open. If Serena has learned something from that match is that she can never allow nerves get in her way and has probably been working hard on the mental aspect of her game. So much so that despite not having played a single match since that defeat to the Italian in New York, she has reached the last four without dropping a single set. In the second set played against Sharapova in the quarters, the American was simply unplayable. She would take the time away from the Russian with her serve and return, playing so hard and fast that she redefined the rules of aggression in women’s tennis.
On the other side of the net Williams finds a player she has never lost to in 8 previous matches, but also the only player who has played a tournament before Melbourne being still undefeated. Most importantly, Radwanska is the player that has won the most matches since the US Open were over in September 2015. Aga has won the WTA Finals and has looked increasingly more convincing on court, managing to play her mix of speed and pace more efficient than ever.
Radwanska has won the most since the last Slam of the year (27 matches and 4 titles), but Serena wasn’t around. Now that she is and she decided to finally take the positive out of her defeat to Vinci, the American is fully focused for every single match she plays. If Williams competes the way she did in the last set against Sharapova, Radwanska will hardly win a set against the World No.1, because she will not have the time to organise her strategies on court.
If nerves are to play a part in this match, then Williams could lose a set, but should win in three. After all, Serena has never lost a semi-final in Melbourne before, not even when she faced match points against Clijsters and Sharapova when she won her first two titles in Melbourne.
Prediction: Williams in 3
Angelique Kerber (GER)[7] vs. Johanna Konta (GBR)
Kerber and Konta have never met before on the tour. With their first meeting also the first ever Grand Slam final for one of them will be at stake. It is a moment that will define the career of whoever wins tonight. Kerber has been in the semi-finals of a Grand Slam before, in 2011 and in 2012, losing respectively to Stosur and Radwanksa, but fighting both times. In those two occasions, Angelique approached the matches with nothing to lose, being the underdog. In 2011 she was ranked below the 90th place in the rankings, and won a tight match against Italian Flavia Pennetta in the quarters, with the Italian who succumbed to the fear of losing and to Kerber’s for her unexpected brilliance and game. At Wimbledon, the German was already a top 10 player (No.8) but was facing No.3 Radwanska who was playing her best tennis on grass.
For the first time Angelique will have a shot at trying to achieve her dream of a major final being the clear favourite to win the match. That is a tricky position to be in and she knows. Already in her press conference after beating Azarenka, Kerber affirmed it doesn’t matter who the opponent of the match will be, but it looked as if she was trying to convince herself in the first place. How many times does an occasion like this presents itself in the life of a tennis player? Playing a semi-final against someone ranked outside the top 40? Not many times, and that means pressure.
On the other end, Konta has clearly nothing to lose. She has become the first Brit in almost 40 years to reach a major semi-final and she did so beating tough competition such as Venus Williams in the first round. Already last year at the US Open Johanna had impressed with her ability to deal with stress and pressure and with her game of talented timing and progression. Konta likes to play against top 10 players, being 4-2 in her career and having beaten already Muguruza and Halep, when the two were at their best rankings.
The match could end up being very entertaining to watch, hopefully a three-set battle. Considering what is at stake and what can happen in women’s tennis, it is worth to take a risk and say Konta will win in three sets to become a surprise Slam finalist.
Prediction: Konta in 3
Novak Djokovic (SRB)[1] vs. Roger Federer (SUI)[3]
All eyes will be on this match tonight. Two times a Grand Slam decider last year, at Wimbledon and the US Open, a semi-final this year. If Novak Djokovic manages to beat Federer, he will hold the lead in the head-2-head against the Swiss for the very fist time in his career. At the moment the two are tied at 22-22, and the Serb eyes the special record against a living tennis legend like the Swiss.
The match would be easy to predict if we thing of the level of tennis Novak Djokovic has been playing at over the last 13 months. The Serb literally dominated the entire 2015 season, looking unapproachable, unbeatable. Then Novak started 2016 following in the footsteps of the previous year, if not better, conquering the title in Doha outplaying Nadal in the final. At the Australian Open the Serb had a short low against Gilles Simon, needing 5 sets to win a match he was expected to win easily. As many started to raise questions on his level, he took a day off practiced and grinded Kei Nishikori in the quarter-finals. Clearly, Novak hasn’t let doubts turn into pressure and has the confidence he needs approaching the matchup with the Swiss.
Considering only the matches the two played in 2015, Djokovic leads the Head-2-Head by 5-3. That result is symptomatic of a nice equilibrium and interesting rivalry, but doesn’t highlight the fact that Novak won all the matches that mattered the most. The Wimbledon final, the US Open final, the ATP Finals last act in London. Three titles won that turn a season into an immense success, three titles which determined Novak’s dominance on the rest of the field.
There is however an interesting record to watch out for closely. Federer and Djokovic are now used to play one another only in the finals of big events, but when the Swiss wasn’t following the Serb as World No.2, the semi-finals or Round Robin matches have been won most of the time by Roger. To find Djokovic able to beat Federer in the semi-finals of a tournament we have to go back to 2013, when the Serb defeated the Swiss in a Round Robin match played in London. Before that Novak had also beaten Roger in the semis of the Masters 1000 of Paris in the same year. Since 2014, Federer has beaten Djokovic all four times the two met before the final.
Let’s then have a look at the Head-2-Head between the two in major semifinals:
2008 Australian Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 75 63 76(5)
2008 US Open Hard (O) SF Federer 63 57 75 62
2009 US Open Hard (O) SF Federer 76(3) 75 75
2010 US Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 57 61 57 62 75
2011 Australian Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 76(3) 75 64
2011 Roland Garros Clay (O) SF Federer 76(5) 63 36 76(5)
2011 US Open Hard (O) SF Djokovic 67(7) 46 63 62 75
2012 Roland Garros Clay(O) SF Djokovic 64 75 63
2012 Wimbledon Grass (O) SF Federer 63 36 64 63
Djokovic leads the Head-2-Head in major semi-finals against Federer by 5 wins to 4. If these results can work as a predicted outcome for tonight’s match, than we can hope for high quality tennis considering how these two seem to find their best tennis when playing against one another for a spot in the final of a major event. The semi won by Federer at the French Open in 2011 and the semi won by Djokovic at the US Open of the same year are two of the most intense and beautiful battles we have seen in tennis for a while.
Speaking of Federer he looked so far flawless in the tournament, facing tough opponents such as Goffin, Dolgopolov, Dimitrov and Berdych only losing one set and looking almost as flying on court with grace and aggression. Clearly Roger has found his best form in this tournament and has a chance of battling for a place in the final.
Last year we have seen Federer underperforming in the finals he played against the Serb compared to what he had shown previously in the tournaments he ended up not winning. The fact that this match will be a semi-final, could give Federer the mental tranquillity he needs to play swinging freely.
If the Swiss manages to achieve that, than he truly has a shot at winning this match.
In what we hope will be the match of the tournament, Roger Federer has a chance to win the match in 4 sets. If the clash gets to a 5th, then Djokovic will win it.
Prediction: Federer in 4
