In bold the player we believe will be the favourite to win their quarter-final match
Rod Laver Arena
Agnieszka Radwanska (POL)[4] vs. Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP)[10]
Carla has managed to find her best tennis as the tournament progressed, finally showing what she can achieve also on hard courts. It was since Rome 2015 that the Spaniard hasn’t looked convincing enough on court and surely a lot changed when she beat in-form Gavrilova in the 4th round in three sets. Radwanska looked flawless before she almost surrendered to German Friedsam in the last 16. Aga was lucky enough that the German got injured with cramps in time to let the Pole back in the third set and into the match. Surviving the scare has however turned on the alert light for Radwanska, who is yet to lose a match this year (9-0 so far) and who knows she will need to bring her A-game to beat the Spaniard.
Radwanska leads the head-2-head by 3-2, but has lost the last match played against Suarez Navarro in Miami last year by 5-7 6-0 6-4. Considering the new self awareness Aga has claimed for her since winning the WTA Finals last year, I believe the Polish player will have the confidence she needs to win the match in three sets. Agniezka should manage to reach the semis in Melbourne for a second time after 2014.
Serena Williams (USA)[1] vs. Maria Sharapova (RUS)[5]
Episode 21 in the rivalry, with Serena leading the Head-2-Head by 18-2. What if it was time for Maria to take revenge over Serena? Life teaches that things happen when we expect them the least, and that could clearly be Sharapova’s case. After losing an appalling total of 17 consecutive times to the American, having beaten Serena last time in 2004 (when Djokovic had zero ATP titles, the loud mouths like to remind), not many would expect Maria to beat the World No.1 in Melbourne at this point. Not to mention that Maria entered the tournament thinking she could exit soon, being followed by a leg injury that took her out of the last part of 2015 – with the exception of the WTA Finals – and also has forced her to start the season right in Melbourne instead of defending her title in Brisbane. Clearly the Russian can’t be considered the favourite here.
On the other hand, Serena hasn’t looked her best either, unable to step on court again after finishing 2015 three sets shy of a historical calendar Grand Slam in New York. Serena needed the last months of last year to grieve and to regain her physical health, saying that she played most of last season injured. The American was a question mark before the start of the tournament, but hasn’t lost a set en route to the quarters.
What makes me believe Maria can win are two factors: the Russian’s serve and her road to the quarters. Beating Bencic in the 4th round, Maria fired an impressive total of 21 aces. It has been a while since we have last seen Sharapova firing so many aces in a match, being dominant with her serve. Due to a shoulder injury, Maria’s serve had become the weakest part in her game, betraying her with double faults on topic moments. Now, the Russian has fully recovered her serve and has a major weapon back in her game. Compared to Serena, Maria faced a tougher competition to reach the last 8, having to beat Belinda Bencic in the 4th round, but also being tested early on, losing a set to Lauren Davis in the third round. The way Sharapova dug deep to perform her best in both occasions shows she is playing free of pressure and is finding her best feeling with the ball.
Obviously Serena on a good day could still easily roll over Sharapova, but for once I risk it and take the Russian as winner in three sets.
Roger Federer (SUI)[3] vs. Tomas Berdych (CZE)[6]
Against David Goffin, Roger Federer seemed dancing on court rather than playing tennis. Turning on the magic, the Swiss enchanted with his aggression, game at the net and most importantly with his backhand down the line. Federer has so far been just impressive at the Australian Open, losing a set with Dimitrov, but recovering right away to teach yet another lesson to the Bulgarian. Berdych has become the great talented player that always loses to the top competitors in the game, as his results in 2015 confirm. Tomas has last beaten Federer in 2012, at the US Open and in 2013 in Dubai, when Federer faced back problems and seemed ready to hang his racket to the wall and call off his tennis career.
Since then, the Swiss has won 4 times against the Czech, including a 6-4 6-0 victory last year in Indian Wells. Considering the way Federer is playing and what is at stake, I believe the Swiss will win in four sets, under three hours, to complete victory number 16 against Tomas.
Novak Djokovic (SRB)[1] vs. Kei Nishikori (JPN)[7]
Some believe Novak’s 5-set battle with 100 unforced errors would be a symptom of a sudden lack of form for the World No.1. Truth is that each and every time Novak has slipped in the past, he has always managed to come out on top showing his very best in the following matches, when it mattered the most. Just think of the ATP Finals last November in London. Novak lost to Federer in the Round Robin, appeared below par against Berdych, then from the semis up to the final where he took revenge against the Swiss he was just flawless.
The battle with Simon I believe has only turned on the alarm light for the Serb, who I am sure went back to the practice courts training harder than ever, knowing he could lose against Nishikori and needs to bounce right back. He is probably going to do just that. It is true that Nishikori has beaten the Serb in the semis of the US Open in 2014, but it is also true that since that match Kei has lost four times in a row against Novak, including an embarrassing 6-1 6-1 defeat in London at the O2 Arena. Is there a chance to see great tennis? Yes, I hope and think so, but I don’t see Djokovic losing this match. Novak should win in 4 sets.
