Nadal's and Djokovic's misleading numbers and their Grand Slam transformation - UBITENNIS
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Nadal’s and Djokovic’s misleading numbers and their Grand Slam transformation

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TENNIS – A statistical analysis of Nadal’s and Djokovic’s performance in Majors shows that they win with a higher percentage than in any other tournament. The difficult start of 2015 for both could be very misleading. Stefano Bolotta, translated by Yelena Apebe

 

AO 2015: Interviews, Results, Order of Play, Draws

What do we have to think about Rafa Nadal and Novak Djokovic on the eve of the Australian Open 2015? They were defeated by Michael Berrer and Ivo Karlovic in Doha (also their performances in Dubai were not so good) and this could represent a “warning” for them. Probably they were not at the best of their form.

In Rafa Nadal’s case it could well be a “warning” as he has been seeking for his best form since the end of last year, hampered by physical issues.

Speaking about Novak Djokovic that only a couple of weeks ago, seemed invincible, the story is different.

Both of them are great champions of this sport and, as true champions, they are able to increase their level when they need to, like they do in Grand Slam tournaments, where they are proud of their great results.

Rafa won 14 Titles ( + 6 finals), Nole hold 7 Titles ( + 7 finals). It is a fact that they win more matches during major events than any other Master 1000, ATP500 and ATP250 tournaments.

ATP statistics analysisNovak Djokovic played 747 matches, 606 wins and 141 defeats. The win percentage is 0,811 and if we only consider the matches of Australian Open, Roland Garros, Wimbledon and Us Open, this percentage goes up to 0,845. In the Master 1000 events, it goes down to 0,803, whereas in ATP500/250 it is 0,792.

The numbers tell the same story for Nadal. In his long and brilliant career, the champion of Manacor won 706 matches and was defeated 141 times (the same number of Novak Djokovic). His win percentage is 0, 834. In the Master 1000 events, the number is more or less the same 0,836, but in Slam events the percentage is awesome: 0,882. In minor events it goes down to 0,795.

What does it mean? The answer is very simple. These champions pull all their eggs in the basket called “Majors” where they up their level of tennis. In a best of 5 sets match they become unbeatable for most players (say Karlovic or Berrer) that may have a chance of surprising them in a best of 3 sets match. Some time ago Rino Tommasi described the difference between playing tennis at “best of 5” or “best of 3” saying that they are completely “two different sports”.

This is why we don’t have to judge in a negative way their performances on the eve of AO 2015. Everything is different in Slam events, and the last year confirms this: the Fab Four supremacy, partially interrupted last year, could be another important consideration. In big events nothing happens by chance.

To complete this analysis we can’t forget Roger Federer, the Swiss legend. He started the new season in the best way possible, he picked up his 1000th career match win in Brisbane, lifting the trophy. His numbers are unbelievable: 0,815 in his entire career (1000 wins-227 defeats), but in Slam events this percentage goes up to 0,862, where he shouted out “C’mon” 279 times.

Andy Murray, instead, is still stuck at 0,716, if we consider all the competitions, but it goes up to 0,802 in major events.

We could also analyze some numbers of the champions of the past. Pete Sampras won 14 Major titles and he had a win percentage between 0,774 and 0,842 in Slam events. Andre Agassi has a lower win percentage, between 0,760 and 0,809.

Other champions were more stable. Ivan Lendl, the winner of 8 Slam, hold his record of 1071 matches won (better than him only Jimmy Connors). He lost 239 matches, the percentage is 0,818 and in Slam events it is more or less the same, 0,819.

We don’t want to be boring, but we have to say that in Melbourne every player will have to deal with Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal. It’s not just a feeling, it’s also a statistical fact.

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Playing Clay Events After Wimbledon Was A Mistake, Says Diego Schwartzman

The former French Open semi-finalist is seeking to win his first title since March 2021 at the Tel Aviv Open this week.

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Diego Schwartzman (Roberto Dell'Olivo)

Diego Schwartzman will likely reevaluate his schedule for next year after admitting that part of his plans for this summer backfired. 

 

The world No.17 enters into the final quarter of the season with 31 wins against 22 losses on the Tour but is yet to win a title. Although he did reach back-to-back finals back in February in Argentina and Brazil. He has won two out of eight matches against top 10 opposition, defeating Stefanos Tsitsipas at the ATP Cup and Felix Auger-Aliassime in Barcelona. 

Reflecting on his performance, Schwartzman admits that his decision to return to European clay after playing at Wimbledon was a mistake. He lost his second match in Gstaad to Pablo Carreno Busta and then his first in Hamburg to Emil Ruusuvori. 

“It’s difficult to play at the same level every tournament, I’ve made a bad decision playing clay tournaments after Wimbledon, I didn’t have time to rest,” he said during his pre-tournament press conference at the Tel Aviv Open. “I paid the price and had some bad losses. But I started to feel much better in USA hard court season, lost to Stefanos Tsitsipas who reached the final in Cincinnati and to Frances Tiafoe at the US Open. Now I am feeling very good, I really love playing indoor tournaments.”

The 30-year-old has headed straight to Tel Aviv from the Laver Cup where Roger Federer played the last match of his career. Despite Schwartzman’s Team World winning the title for the first time, his only contribution to the tie saw him lose 6-1, 6-2, to Tsitsipas. 

Retirement was very much the topic of conversation during the Laver Cup with others such as Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic questioned by reporters about their plans in the sport. As for Schwartzman, he stayed coy about how much longer he would continue playing after saying in the past he might stop at the age of 33. 

“33 — is a good age to retire, isn’t it? South Americans are in different situations compared to European players. We travel too much, and sometimes we are not coming back home for 2-3 months, while Europeans can fly home every week. It’s tough,” he said. 
“As for Roger — he’s a special player, I think he is just the greatest in our sport.”

The Argentine is seeded third this week in Israel and will begin his campaign against Arthur Rinderknech who defeated qualifier Marius Copil in his opening match. 

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Laver Cup Daily Preview: Team Europe Goes for a Fifth Straight Laver Cup

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The lineup for Day 3 (twitter.com/lavercup)

Heading into Day 3, the 2022 Laver Cup is feeling extremely familiar.  Team Europe has an 8-4 advantage, and only needs two wins on Sunday to secure their fifth consecutive Laver Cup.  Team World needs to win three matches to pull off the upset and obtain their first. 

 

Sunday’s play gets underway in London at 12:00pm local time.  And each match on Sunday is worth three points.


Matteo Berrettini and Andy Murray (Team Europe) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime and Jack Sock (Team World) – 12:00pm

Berrettini was victorious in both singles and doubles on Saturday, defeating Auger-Aliassime in singles, and teaming with Djokovic to overcome Sock and de Minaur in doubles.  So Matteo gained victories over both of his Sunday opponents on Saturday.  Murray lost to de Minaur in singles on Friday.  Andy and Jack are the most accomplished doubles players in this match, as Sock is pretty much Team World’s doubles specialist.  If he and Felix cannot pull of the victory on Sunday, it could be a pretty short day.


Novak Djokovic (Team Europe) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (Team World)

Like Berrettini, Djokovic won in singles and doubles on Saturday, comfortably dispatching of Tiafoe in singles.  While it was his first match in over two months, Novak showed no rust whatsoever.  Auger-Aliassime’s loss to Berrettini on Saturday will not help his confidence against the 21-time Major champion.

Novak and Felix have only played once before, and that occurred four months ago in Rome on clay.  It was a pretty tight affair, but Djokovic prevailed 7-5, 7-6(1).  And there’s not much evidence to support a different outcome on Sunday.  Novak is surely eager to re-assert his authority after missing so much of this season due to his vaccination status.


Stefanos Tsitsipas (Team Europe) vs. Frances Tiafoe (Team World) – If Necessary

Tsitsipas easily beat Diego Schwartzman on Friday, dropping just three games.  He is 3-2 against Tiafoe, and 3-1 on hard courts.  However, Frances claimed their most recent encounter, last fall in Vienna, which was also on an indoor hard court.


Casper Ruud (Team Europe) vs. Taylor Fritz (Team World) – If Necessary

Ruud defeated Sock on Friday, while Fritz defeated Norrie on Saturday.  If this match takes place, it will be their first career meeting.


The full Laver Cup schedule is here.

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Laver Cup Daily Preview: Novak Djokovic to Play Singles and Doubles on Saturday

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The lineup for Day 2 (twitter.com/lavercup)

In the wake of Roger Federer’s incredibly emotional retirement on Day 1, the focus of this event shifts to the rest of the competitors on Day 2.  And for the first time in the five-year history of the Laver Cup, Team World goes into Day 2 without a deficit.  With both Federer and Rafael Nadal replaced by alternates for Day 2 and Day 3, is this Team World’s opportunity to capture their first Laver Cup? 

 

Each day, this preview will look at all four scheduled matches, while taking an extended look at the most notable match of the day.  Saturday’s day session gets underway in London at 1:00pm local time, and the night session at 7:00pm.  And each match on Saturday is worth two points.


Matteo Berrettini (Team Europe) vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime (Team World) – 1:00pm

These two good friends have played four times, with Berrettini winning on three of those occasions.  Matteo’s wins came three years ago in the final of Stuttgart on grass, in the quarterfinals of last year’s Wimbledon, and a year ago in this event.  Auger-Aliassime’s only win occurred last summer in Cincinnati.  Matteo is coming off a quarterfinal run in New York, as well as three victories last week in Davis Cup.  Felix was upset in the second round of the US Open by Jack Draper, and went 2-1 in Davis Cup.


Cameron Norrie (Team Europe) vs. Taylor Fritz (Team World) – Second in the Day Session

Norrie was also an alternate in last year’s Laver Cup, but did not play.  Fritz was a part of Team World in 2019, when he went 1-1 in singles, defeating Dominic Thiem during Sunday’s play in a must-win match to keep his team alive.  Cam is now 45-22 on the year, while Fritz is 36-17.  Both men achieved their best-ever Major performances two months ago at Wimbledon.  They played each other just last week in Davis Cup, with Norrie prevailing after three tight sets.  Overall they have split 10 previous meetings.


Novak Djokovic (Team Europe) vs. Frances Tiafoe (Team World) – 7:00pm

Is Tiafoe ready to upset another member of “The Big Three” on Saturday?  He earned the biggest win of his career by taking out Rafael Nadal at the US Open, and defeated Nadal and Federer in doubles on Day 1 alongside Jack Sock.  Meanwhile, this will be the first match for Djokovic in over two months, since he won the Wimbledon final over Nick Kyrgios.  The unvaccinated Novak was unable to travel to North America for the hard court summer season.

Djokovic has only played seven tournaments this year, amassing a record of 23-5.  Tiafoe is 26-19, and is coming off his exciting semifinal run in New York.  Their only previous matchup was at the 2021 Australian Open, when Novak defeated Frances in four sets.  Frances is certainly the much more match-tough player on this day.  But despite his recent inactivity, Djokovic should still be considered the favorite.


Matteo Berrettini and Novak Djokovic (Team Europe) vs. Alex de Minaur and Jack Sock (Team World) – Second in the Night Session

Novak will have only a few minutes of rest ahead of this doubles match, so the length of his match with Tiafoe could impact the result here.  This will be Novak’s first time playing doubles since last year’s Davis Cup finals.  Berrettini played three doubles matches this past January at the ATP Cup, going 1-2.  De Minaur overcame Andy Murray in singles on Friday in what was a grueling contest, while Sock was defeated in singles and victorious in doubles.


The full Laver Cup schedule is here.

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